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Risk, uncertainty, and exchange rates

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Feenstra, Robert C. & Kendall, Jon D., 1997. "Pass-through of exchange rates and purchasing power parity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1-2), pages 237-261, August.
  2. Baillie, Richard T. & Diebold, Francis X. & Kapetanios, George & Kim, Kun Ho, 2023. "A new test for market efficiency and uncovered interest parity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
  3. Dumas, Bernard & Solnik, Bruno, 1995. "The World Price of Foreign Exchange Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 445-479, June.
  4. Syed Hassan & Sarosh Shabi & Taufiq Choudhry, 2018. "Asymmetry, Uncertainty and International Trade," Working Papers 2018-24, Swansea University, School of Management.
  5. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2012. "Modeling the horizon-dependent risk premium in the forex market: evidence from survey data," EconomiX Working Papers 2012-29, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
  6. Vitale, Paolo & Rime, Dagfinn & Breedon, Francis, 2010. "A Transaction Data Study of the Forward Bias Puzzle," CEPR Discussion Papers 7791, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Heejoon Han & Dennis Kristensen, 2014. "Asymptotic Theory for the QMLE in GARCH-X Models With Stationary and Nonstationary Covariates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(3), pages 416-429, July.
  8. Richard T. Baillie & Young Wook Han, 2019. "Long Memory Volatility, Central Bank Intervention and Uncovered Interest Rate Parity in the 1920s Exchange Markets," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 35, pages 183-203.
  9. Annika Alexius & Peter Sellin, 2012. "Exchange Rates and Long-Term Bonds," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 114(3), pages 974-990, September.
  10. Dumas, Bernard & Harvey, Campbell R. & Ruiz, Pierre, 2003. "Are correlations of stock returns justified by subsequent changes in national outputs?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 777-811, November.
  11. P. Kearns & A.R. Pagan, 1993. "Australian Stock Market Volatility: 1875–1987," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 69(2), pages 163-178, June.
  12. Han, Heejoon & Park, Joon Y., 2008. "Time series properties of ARCH processes with persistent covariates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 275-292, October.
  13. MacDonald, Ronald, 2000. "Is the foreign exchange market 'risky'? Some new survey-based results," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 1-14, January.
  14. repec:adr:anecst:y:1991:i:24:p:01 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Hu, Michael Y. & Tsoukalas, Christos, 1999. "Combining conditional volatility forecasts using neural networks: an application to the EMS exchange rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 407-422, November.
  16. Puri, Tribhuvan N., 1996. "Capital flows and net international investment," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 113-130.
  17. Iyke, Bernard Njindan & Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2022. "Exchange rate return predictability in times of geopolitical risk," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
  18. Clarida, Richard H, 1994. "Cointegration, Aggregate Consumption, and the Demand for Imports: A Structural Econometric Investigation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 298-308, March.
  19. Bhar, Ramprasad & Kim, Suk-Joong & Pham, Toan M., 2004. "Exchange rate volatility and its impact on the transaction costs of covered interest rate parity," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 503-525, December.
  20. Richard T., Baillie, 2011. "Possible solutions to the forward bias paradox," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 617-622, October.
  21. Choi, Jin Ho & Suh, Sangwon, 2022. "Conditionally-hedged currency carry trades," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
  22. Richard T. Baillie & Dooyeon Cho, 2014. "When Carry Trades in Currency Markets are not Profitable," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(4), pages 794-803, November.
  23. Finn, Mary, 1989. "An econometric analysis of the intertemporal general-equilibrium approach to exchange rate and current account determination," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 467-486, December.
  24. Oscar Jorda & Kevin Salyer, 2003. "The Response of Term Rates to Monetary Policy Uncertainty," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(4), pages 941-962, October.
  25. René Garcia & Maral Kichian, 2000. "Modelling Risk Premiums in Equity and Foreign Exchange Markets," Staff Working Papers 00-9, Bank of Canada.
  26. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2017. "The impact of uncertainty on professional exchange rate forecasts," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB), pages 296-316.
  27. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2008. "The dynamics of ex-ante risk premia in the foreign exchange market: Evidence from the yen/usd exchange rate Using survey data," Working Papers hal-04140761, HAL.
  28. Stuart Landon & Constance E. Smith, 2003. "The Risk Premium, Exchange Rate Expectations, and the Forward Exchange Rate: Estimates for the Yen–Dollar Rate," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(1), pages 144-158, February.
  29. Juan-Ángel Jiménez-Martín & Rodrigo Peruga Urrea, 2004. "Macroeconomic and policy uncertainty and Exchange rate risk Premium," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 0412, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
  30. Hu, Xiaoqiang, 1997. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and the risk premium in the foreign exchange market1," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 699-718, September.
  31. Francis Breedon & Dagfinn Rime & Paolo Vitale, 2016. "Carry Trades, Order Flow, and the Forward Bias Puzzle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(6), pages 1113-1134, September.
  32. Longin, Francois & Solnik, Bruno, 1995. "Is the correlation in international equity returns constant: 1960-1990?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 3-26, February.
  33. Peter Smith & Michael Wickens, 2002. "Asset Pricing with Observable Stochastic Discount Factors," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 397-446, July.
  34. Balvers, Ronald J. & H. Bergstrand, Jeffrey, 1997. "Equilibrium real exchange rates: closed-form theoretical solutions and some empirical evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 345-366, June.
  35. Foroni, Claudia & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Sadaba, Barbara, 2018. "Assessing the predictive ability of sovereign default risk on exchange rate returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 242-264.
  36. Juan Ángel Lafuente & Jesús Ruiz, 2002. "Time-Varying forward Bias and the Volatility of Risk Premium: a Monetary Explanation," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 0214, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
  37. John T. Barkoulas & Christopher F. Baum & Joseph Onochie, 1997. "A nonparametric investigation of the 90‐day t‐bill rate," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 6(2), pages 187-198.
  38. Froot, Kenneth A. & Ito, Takatoshi, 1989. "On the consistency of short-run and long-run exchange rate expectations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 487-510, December.
  39. Diamandis, Panayiotis F. & Georgoutsos, Dimitris A. & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2008. "Testing the forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis during the 1920s," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 358-373, October.
  40. Spronk, Richard & Verschoor, Willem F.C. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2013. "Carry trade and foreign exchange rate puzzles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 17-31.
  41. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
  42. Hodrick, Robert J., 1989. "U.S. International capital flows: Perspectives from rational maximizing models," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 231-288, January.
  43. Baillie, Richard T. & Chang, Sanders S., 2011. "Carry trades, momentum trading and the forward premium anomaly," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 441-464, August.
  44. Yavari, Kazem & Najjarzade, Reza & Tavakolian, Hossein & Bahador, Ali, 2016. "Effect of Nominal Exchange Rate Volatility on Output in Iran’s Economy," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 11(4), pages 419-442, October.
  45. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2000. "Trade in nominal assets and net international capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 55-72, February.
  46. Hong, Yongmiao, 2001. "A test for volatility spillover with application to exchange rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 103(1-2), pages 183-224, July.
  47. Chionis, Dionysios & MacDonald, Ronald, 1997. "Some tests of market microstructure hypotheses in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 203-229, October.
  48. Matthias Bauer & Martin Zenker, 2012. "Minor Nuisance Around Foreign Exchange Markets - Lessons from the Stability and Growth Pact Debate," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 2012-32, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
  49. Richard T. Baillie & William P. Osterberg, 1998. "Central bank intervention and overnight uncovered interest rate parity," Working Papers (Old Series) 9823, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  50. Dios Palomares, Rafaela & Martínez Paz, José Miguel & Martínezcarrasco Pleite, Federico, 2006. "Including environmental variables in the effi ciency analysis: A three-step method/El análisis de efi ciencia con variables de entorno: un método de programas con tres etapas," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 24, pages 477-497, Abril.
  51. Fernando Alvarez & Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2009. "Time-Varying Risk, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates in General Equilibrium," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 76(3), pages 851-878.
  52. Frachot, Antoine, 1996. "A reexamination of the uncovered interest rate parity hypothesis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 419-437, June.
  53. Hodrick, Robert J & Kocherlakota, Narayana R & Lucas, Deborah, 1991. "The Variability of Velocity in Cash-in-Advance Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 358-384, April.
  54. Bruce Felmincham & Peter Mansfield, 1997. "Rationality and the Risk Premium on the Australian dollar," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 47-59.
  55. Tim Bollerslev & Ray Y. Chou & Narayanan Jayaraman & Kenneth F. Kroner - L, 1991. "es modéles ARCH en finance : un point sur la théorie et les résultats empiriques," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 24, pages 1-59.
  56. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1998. "Risk and Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 6694, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  57. Baillie, Richard T. & Kilic, Rehim, 2006. "Do asymmetric and nonlinear adjustments explain the forward premium anomaly?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 22-47, February.
  58. Canova, Fabio & Marrinan, Jane, 1996. "Reconciling the term structure of interest rates with the consumption-based ICAP model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 709-750, April.
  59. Abel, Andrew B., 1988. "Stock prices under time-varying dividend risk : An exact solution in an infinite-horizon general equilibrium model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 375-393.
  60. Hsu, Po-Hsuan & Taylor, Mark P. & Wang, Zigan & Xu, Qi, 2022. "Currency volatility and global technological innovation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
  61. Alexius, Annika, 2002. "Can Endogenous Monetary Policy Explain the Deviations from UIP," Working Paper Series 2002:17, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  62. Albuquerque, Rui, 2008. "The forward premium puzzle in a model of imperfect information," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 461-464, June.
  63. Zhu, Zhen, 2002. "Time-varying forward bias and the expected excess return," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 119-137, April.
  64. Bekaert, Geert & Engstrom, Eric & Xing, Yuhang, 2009. "Risk, uncertainty, and asset prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 59-82, January.
  65. Leachman, Lori L. & Francis, Bill, 1996. "Equity market return volatility: Dynamics and transmission among the G-7 countries," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 27-52.
  66. Baillie, Richard T. & Cho, Dooyeon, 2014. "Time variation in the standard forward premium regression: Some new models and tests," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 52-63.
  67. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J., 1993. "On biases in the measurement of foreign exchange risk premiums," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 115-138, April.
  68. Prat, Georges & Uctum, Remzi, 2013. "Modeling the horizon-dependent ex-ante risk premium in the foreign exchange market: Evidence from survey data," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 33-54.
  69. Nijman, T.E. & Palm, F.C., 1991. "Recent Developments in Modeling Volatility in Financial Data," Papers 9168, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
  70. Gianluca Benigno & Pierpaolo Benigno & Salvatore Nisticò, 2012. "Risk, Monetary Policy, and the Exchange Rate," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(1), pages 247-309.
  71. Liu, Ming-Hua & Margaritis, Dimitris & Tourani-Rad, Alireza, 2012. "Risk appetite, carry trade and exchange rates," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 48-63.
  72. Mark, Nelson C. & Choi, Doo-Yull, 1997. "Real exchange-rate prediction over long horizons," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1-2), pages 29-60, August.
  73. Robert C. Feenstra & Jon D. Kendall, 1991. "Exchange Rate Volatility and International Prices," NBER Working Papers 3644, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  74. Canova, Fabio & Marrinan, Jane, 1995. "Predicting excess returns in financial markets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 35-69, January.
  75. John Barkoulas & Christopher F. Baum & Joseph Onochie, 1996. "Nonlinear Nonparametric Prediction of the 90-Day T-Bill Rate," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 320., Boston College Department of Economics.
  76. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2012. "Modeling the horizon-dependent risk premium in the forex market: evidence from survey data," Working Papers hal-04141062, HAL.
  77. Fatum, Rasmus, 2015. "Foreign exchange intervention when interest rates are zero: Does the portfolio balance channel matter after all?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 185-199.
  78. Johnson Worlanyo Ahiadorme, 2022. "On the aggregate effects of global uncertainty: Evidence from an emerging economy," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 90(3), pages 390-407, September.
  79. Francis Breedon & Dagfinn Rime & Paolo Vitale, 2016. "Carry Trades, Order Flow, and the Forward Bias Puzzle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(6), pages 1113-1134, September.
  80. Tobias Adrian & Erkko Etula & Hyun Song Shin, 2009. "Risk appetite and exchange Rates," Staff Reports 361, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  81. Yin, Weiwei & Li, Junye, 2014. "Macroeconomic fundamentals and the exchange rate dynamics: A no-arbitrage macro-finance approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 46-64.
  82. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
  83. Taylor, Mark P. & Wang, Zigan & Xu, Qi, 2021. "The real effects of exchange rate risk on corporate investment: International evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
  84. Tim Bollerslev & Robert J. Hodrick, 1992. "Financial Market Efficiency Tests," NBER Working Papers 4108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  85. Lafuente, Juan A. & Pérez, Rafaela & Ruiz, Jesús, 2016. "Monetary policy regimes and the forward bias for foreign exchange," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 13-28.
  86. Rui Albuquerque, 2004. "The Forward Premium Puzzle in a Model of Imperfect Information: Theory and Evidence," International Finance 0405007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  87. Juan A. Lafuente & Jesús Ruiz, 2002. "The Bias For Forward Exchange Rate And The Risk Premium: An Explanation With A Stochastic And Dynamic General Equilibrium Model," Working Papers. Serie EC 2002-20, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  88. Baillie, Richard T. & Kim, Kun Ho, 2015. "Was it risk? Or was it fundamentals? Explaining excess currency returns with kernel smoothed regressions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 99-111.
  89. Hens, Thorsten & Jager, Eckart & Kirman, Alan & Phlips, Louis, 1999. "Exchange rates and oligopoly," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 621-648, March.
  90. Seongman Moon & Carlos Velasco, 2011. "The Forward Discount Puzzle: Identi cation of Economic Assumptions," Working Papers 1112, Nam Duck-Woo Economic Research Institute, Sogang University (Former Research Institute for Market Economy).
  91. Tarek Harchaoui & Faouzi Tarkhani & Terence Yuen, 2005. "The Effects of the Exchange Rate on Investment: Evidence from Canadian Manufacturing Industries," Staff Working Papers 05-22, Bank of Canada.
  92. Duarte, Margarida & Stockman, Alan C., 2005. "Rational speculation and exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 3-29, January.
  93. Bansal, Ravi & Gallant, A. Ronald & Hussey, Robert & Tauchen, George, 1995. "Nonparametric estimation of structural models for high-frequency currency market data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 251-287.
  94. Chadwick, Meltem Gülenay & Fazilet, Fatih & Tekatli, Necati, 2015. "Understanding the common dynamics of the emerging market currencies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 120-136.
  95. Lafuente, Juan Angel & Ruiz, Jesus, 2006. "Monetary policy and forward bias for foreign exchange revisited: Empirical evidence from the US-UK exchange rate," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 238-264, March.
  96. Nessrine Hamzaoui & Boutheina Regaieg, 2016. "The Glosten-Jagannathan-Runkle-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic approach to investigating the foreign exchange forward premium volatility," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(4), pages 1608-1615.
  97. Bu, Ruijun & Kim, Jihyun & Wang, Bin, 2023. "Uniform and Lp convergences for nonparametric continuous time regressions with semiparametric applications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 1934-1954.
  98. Baillie, Richard T. & Osterberg, William P., 2000. "Deviations from daily uncovered interest rate parity and the role of intervention," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 10(3-4), pages 363-379, December.
  99. Oscar Jorda & Kevin Salyer, 2003. "The Response of Term Rates to Monetary Policy Uncertainty," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(4), pages 941-962, October.
  100. Degiannakis, Stavros & Xekalaki, Evdokia, 2004. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) Models: A Review," MPRA Paper 80487, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  101. Christian Wagner, 2008. "Risk-Premia, Carry-Trade Dynamics, and Speculative Efficiency of Currency Markets," Working Papers 143, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  102. Juan-Ángel Jiménez-Martín & Rafael Flores de Frutos, 2004. "The Fit of Dynamic Equilibrium Models of Exchange Rate," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 0411, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
  103. Sangdai Ryoo, 2002. "Testing for Sunspot in the Foreign Exchange Market," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 39-58.
  104. Baillie, Richard T. & P. Osterberg, William, 1997. "Central bank intervention and risk in the forward market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 483-497, November.
  105. Richard T. Baillie & Rehim Kilic, 2005. "Do Asymmetric and Nonlinear Adjustments Explain the Forward Premium Anomaly?," Working Papers 543, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  106. Cho, Dooyeon & Han, Heejoon, 2021. "The tail behavior of safe haven currencies: A cross-quantilogram analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
  107. Nijman, T.E. & Palm, F.C., 1991. "Recent developments in modeling volatility in financial data," Other publications TiSEM 0c1ff78c-d484-43bb-bcc3-a, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  108. Camiel de Koning & Stefan Straetmans, 1997. "Variation in the Slope Coefficient of the Fama Regression for Testing Uncovered Interest Rate Parity: Evidence from Fixed and Time-varying Coefficient Approaches," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 97-014/2, Tinbergen Institute.
  109. W A Razzak & Thomas Grennes, 1998. "The long-run nominal exchange rate: specification and estimation issues," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G98/5, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
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