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The Effects of the Exchange Rate on Investment: Evidence from Canadian Manufacturing Industries

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Author Info

  • Tarek Harchaoui
  • Faouzi Tarkhani
  • Terence Yuen

Abstract

Using industry-level data for 22 Canadian manufacturing industries, the authors examine the relationship between exchange rates and investment during the period 1981-97. Their empirical results show that the overall effect of exchange rates on total investment is statistically insignificant. Further investigation reveals the non-uniform investment response to exchange rate movements in three channels. First, it is important to distinguish between environments that have low and high exchange rate volatilities. Through changes in output demands, depreciations would have a positive effect on total investment when the exchange rate volatility is low. Yet, this stimulative effect becomes considerably smaller as the volatility increases. Second, these results for total investment are mainly due to movements in other machinery and equipment, and not to investment in information technology and structures. Third, investment in industries with low markup ratios are more likely to be affected by exchange rate movements.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 05-22.

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Length: 60 pages
Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:05-22

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Keywords: Exchange rates; Domestic demand and components;

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References

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  1. Hodrick, Robert J., 1989. "Risk, uncertainty, and exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 433-459, May.
  2. Clarida, R.H., 1992. "The real Exchange Rate and U.S. Manufacturing Profit : A Theoretical Framework with Some Empirical Support," Discussion Papers 1992_28, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
  3. Gilchrist, Simon & Himmelberg, Charles P., 1995. "Evidence on the role of cash flow for investment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 541-572, December.
  4. Allayannis, George & Ofek, Eli, 2001. "Exchange rate exposure, hedging, and the use of foreign currency derivatives," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 273-296, April.
  5. Robert Lafrance & Pierre St-Amant, 1999. "Real Exchange Rate Indexes for the Canadian Dollar," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 1999(Autumn), pages 19-28.
  6. Campa, Jose & Goldberg, Linda S., 1995. "Investment in manufacturing, exchange rates and external exposure," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 297-320, May.
  7. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
  8. Taylor, John B., 2000. "Low inflation, pass-through, and the pricing power of firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1389-1408, June.
  9. Judson, Ruth A. & Owen, Ann L., 1999. "Estimating dynamic panel data models: a guide for macroeconomists," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 9-15, October.
  10. R. Glenn Hubbard, 1997. "Capital-Market Imperfections and Investment," NBER Working Papers 5996, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Kaplan, Steven N & Zingales, Luigi, 1997. "Do Investment-Cash Flow Sensitivities Provide Useful Measures of Financing Constraints," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 112(1), pages 169-215, February.
  12. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
  13. Allayannis, George & Ihrig, Jane, 2001. "Exposure and Markups," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(3), pages 805-35.
  14. Yang, Jiawen, 1998. "Pricing-to-market in U.S. imports and exports: A time series and cross-sessional study," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 843-861.
  15. Danny Leung & Terence Yuen, 2005. "Do Exchange Rates Affect the Capital-Labour Ratio? Panel Evidence from Canadian Manufacturing Industries," Working Papers 05-12, Bank of Canada.
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Cited by:
  1. Mustafa Caglayan & Rebeca Muñoz Torres, 2011. "The Effect of the Exchange Rates on Investment in Mexican Manufacturing Industry," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 669-683, September.
  2. Diallo, Ibrahima Amadou, 2008. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Investment, A Panel Data Cointegration Approach," MPRA Paper 13130, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Eliane Cristina de Araújo, 2011. "Volatilidade Cambial eCrescimento Econômico: Teorias e Evidencias para Economias emDesenvolvimento e Emergentes (1980 e 2007)," Anais do XXXVII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 37th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 105, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].

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