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The real exchange rate and US manufacturing profits: a theoretical framework with some empirical support

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  • Richard H. Clarida

Abstract

This paper studies the relationship between the real exchange rate and manufacturing profits using Marston's model of pricing-to-market. Looking at US data, we find that a sustained real depreciation of the dollar has a significant and substantial influence on manufacturing profits. During the early 1980s, the appreciation of the dollar reduced profits by at least 25% conditional on the realized time path of sales, costs, and the US markup. The post-plaza depreciation of the dollar boosted profits at least 30%. Copyright @ 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its series Research Paper with number 9214.

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Date of creation: 1992
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednrp:9214

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Keywords: Foreign exchange rates ; Manufactures ; Corporate profits;

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Cited by:
  1. Robert A. Blecker, 2007. "The Economic Consequences of Dollar Appreciation for US Manufacturing Investment: A Time-Series Analysis," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 491-517.
  2. Linda Goldberg & Joseph Tracy, 1999. "Exchange rates and local labor markets," Staff Reports 63, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  3. Juann H. Hung & Sandra Viana, 1995. "Modelling U.S. services trade flows: a cointegration-ECM approach," Research Paper 9518, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  4. Bartram, Sohnke M. & Karolyi, G. Andrew, 2004. "The Impact of the Introduction of the Euro on Foreign Exchange Rate Risk Exposures," Working Paper Series 2005-3, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
  5. Forbes, Kristin, 2002. "How Do Large Depreciations Affect Firm Performance?," Working papers 4379-02, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  6. Nazli Toraganli, 2010. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Exposure in the Turkish Economy," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 10(1), pages 47-69.
  7. Tarek Harchaoui & Faouzi Tarkhani & Terence Yuen, 2005. "The Effects of the Exchange Rate on Investment: Evidence from Canadian Manufacturing Industries," Working Papers 05-22, Bank of Canada.
  8. Tsui, Hsiao-Chien, 2008. "Exchange rate and pricing behavior: Comparison of Taiwan with Japan for manufacturing industries," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 290-301, March.
  9. Katalin Bodnár, 2009. "Exchange rate exposure of Hungarian enterprises – results of a survey," MNB Occasional Papers 2009/80, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
  10. Bartram, Söhnke M., 2007. "Corporate Cash Flow and Stock Price Exposures to Foreign Exchange Rate Risk," MPRA Paper 6662, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Nucci, Francesco & Pozzolo, Alberto F., 2001. "Investment and the exchange rate: An analysis with firm-level panel data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 259-283, February.
  12. Muller, Aline & Verschoor, Willem F.C., 2006. "Asymmetric foreign exchange risk exposure: Evidence from U.S. multinational firms," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(4-5), pages 495-518, October.

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