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Risk Appetite and Exchange Rates

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  • Hyun Song Shin

    (Princeton University)

  • Erkko Etula

    (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)

  • Tobias Adrian

    (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)

Abstract

We present evidence that the funding liquidity aggregates of U.S. financial intermediaries forecast exchange rate growth---at weekly, monthly, and quarterly horizons, both in-sample and out-of-sample, and for a large set of currencies. We estimate prices of risk using a cross-sectional asset pricing approach and show that U.S. dollar funding liquidity forecasts exchange rates because of its association with time-varying risk premia. We provide a theoretical foundation for a funding liquidity channel in an intertemporal equilibrium pricing model where the "risk appetite" of dollar-funded intermediaries fluctuates with the tightness of their balance sheet constraints. Our empirical evidence shows that this channel is separate from the more familiar "carry trade" channel.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2010 Meeting Papers with number 311.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:red:sed010:311

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  1. Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2005. "Liquidity Shortages and Banking Crises," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(2), pages 615-647, 04.
  2. Charles Engel & Nelson C. Mark & Kenneth D. West, 2007. "Exchange Rate Models Are Not as Bad as You Think," NBER Working Papers 13318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Isaac Kleshchelski & Sergio Rebelo, 2006. "The Returns to Currency Speculation," NBER Working Papers 12489, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
  5. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
  6. Kenneth S. Rogoff & Vania Stavrakeva, 2008. "The Continuing Puzzle of Short Horizon Exchange Rate Forecasting," NBER Working Papers 14071, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Tobias Adrian & Emanuel Moench, 2008. "Pricing the term structure with linear regressions," Staff Reports 340, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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Cited by:
  1. Bussière, M. & Chudik, A. & Mehl, A., 2011. "How have global shocks impacted the real effective exchange rates of individual euro area countries since the euro's creation?," Working papers 336, Banque de France.
  2. Erkko Etula, 2009. "Broker-dealer risk appetite and commodity returns," Staff Reports 406, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  3. Bakshi, Gurdip & Panayotov, George, 2013. "Predictability of currency carry trades and asset pricing implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 139-163.
  4. Tobias Adrian & Hyun Song Shin, 2009. "Prices and quantities in the monetary policy transmission mechanism," Staff Reports 396, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  5. Potì, Valerio & Siddique, Akhtar, 2013. "What drives currency predictability?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 86-106.
  6. Aidan Corcoran, 2010. "Global Funding Liquidity, Equity Returns and Crash Risk: Implications for Monetary Policy," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp318, IIIS, revised Feb 2010.
  7. Tobias Adrian & Erkko Etula, 2010. "Funding liquidity risk and the cross-section of stock returns," Staff Reports 464, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  8. Adrian, Tobias & Etula, Erkko & Groen, Jan J.J., 2011. "Financial amplification of foreign exchange risk premia," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 354-370, April.
  9. Cho-Hoi Hui & Hans Genberg & Tsz-Kin Chung, 2009. "Liquidity, Risk Appetite and Exchange Rate Movements During the Financial Crisis of 2007-2009," Working Papers 0911, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
  10. Lustig, Hanno & Roussanov, Nikolai & Verdelhan, Adrien, 2014. "Countercyclical currency risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(3), pages 527-553.

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