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A Mechanism for Booms and Busts in Housing Prices

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  • Hillebrand, Marten
  • Kikuchi, Tomoo

Abstract

We study an exchange economy with overlapping generations of consumers who derive utility from consuming a non-durable commodity and housing. A banking sector offers loans to finance housing. We provide a complete characterization of the equilibrium dynamics which alternates between an expansive regime where housing prices increase and banks expand loans and a contractive regime associated with decreasing housing values and shrinking credit volume. Regime switches occur even under small but persistent income changes giving rise to large booms and busts in housing prices not reflecting changes in fundamentals.

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  • Hillebrand, Marten & Kikuchi, Tomoo, 2012. "A Mechanism for Booms and Busts in Housing Prices," VfS Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 62042, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc12:62042
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    Cited by:

    1. Lise Clain-Chamosset-Yvrard & Xavier Raurich & Thomas Seegmuller, 2022. "Rational housing demand bubble," Working Papers 2207, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    2. Hui An & Lijie Yu & Rakesh Gupta, 2016. "Capital Inflows and House Prices: Aggregate and Regional Evidence from China," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(4), pages 451-475, December.
    3. Yongheng Deng & Eric Girardin & Roselyne Joyeux, 2015. "Fundamentals and the Volatility of Real Estate Prices in China: A Sequential Modelling Strategy," Working Papers 222015, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    4. Deng, Yongheng & Girardin, Eric & Joyeux, Roselyne, 2018. "Fundamentals and the volatility of real estate prices in China: A sequential modelling strategy," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 205-222.
    5. Linyan Wang & Haiqing Hu & Xianzhu Wang, 2022. "The Dynamic Evolution of the Structure of an Urban Housing Investment Niche Network and Its Underlying Mechanisms: A Case Study of 35 Large and Medium-Sized Cities in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-21, March.
    6. MeiChi Huang, 2017. "Vulnerabilities to housing bubbles: Evidence from linkages between housing prices and income fundamentals," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(1), pages 64-91, March.
    7. Graczyk, Andrew & Phan, Toan, 2021. "Regressive Welfare Effects Of Housing Bubbles," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(8), pages 2102-2127, December.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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