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A Dynamic Model of Housing Demand: Estimation and Policy Implications

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  • Patrick Bajari
  • Phoebe Chan
  • Dirk Krueger
  • Daniel Miller

Abstract

Using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) we specify, estimate and simulate a dynamic structural model of housing demand. Our model generalizes previous applied econometric work by incorporating realistic features of the housing market including non-convex adjustment costs from buying and selling a home, credit constraints from minimum downpayment requirements and uncertainty about the evolution of incomes and home prices. We argue that these features are critical for capturing salient features of housing demand observed in the PSID. After estimating the model we use it to simulate how consumer behavior responds to house price and income declines as well as tightening credit. These experiments are motivated by the U.S. recession starting in December of 2007 that saw large falls in home prices, large negative income shocks for many households and tightening credit standards. In the short run, relatively few households adjust their housing stock. Households respond instead by reducing non-housing consumption and reducing wealth because they wish to avoid losing their home and the associated adjustment costs. Households that adjust in the short run are those hit with a series of bad shocks, such as a negative income shock and a home price decline. A larger proportion of households do adjust their consumption in the long run, increasing their housing stock since housing is less expensive. However, such changes may occur several years after the shocks listed above.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 15955.

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Date of creation: Apr 2010
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Publication status: published as Patrick Bajari & Phoebe Chan & Dirk Krueger & Daniel Miller, 2013. "A Dynamic Model Of Housing Demand: Estimation And Policy Implications," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 54(2), pages 409-442, 05.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15955

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Cited by:
  1. Hillebrand, Marten & Kikuchi, Tomoo, 2012. "A Mechanism for Booms and Busts in Housing Prices," Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 62042, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  2. Giulio Fella, 2014. "A generalized endogenous grid method for non-smooth and non-concave problems," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(2), pages 329-344, April.
  3. Bover, Olympia, 2010. "Housing purchases and the dynamics of housing wealth," CEPR Discussion Papers 8128, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Łaszek, Jacek, 2013. "Housing in consumer’s theory," MPRA Paper 52365, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Wenli Li & Haiyong Liu & Rui Yao, 2009. "Housing over time and over the life cycle: a structural estimation," Working Papers 09-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  6. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Dirk Krueger, 2004. "Consumption and Saving over the Life Cycle: How Important are Consumer Durables?," 2004 Meeting Papers 357b, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  7. Honglin Wang & Fan Yu & Yinggang Zhou, 2013. "Rental Rates under Housing Price Uncertainty: A Real Options Approach," Working Papers 242013, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  8. Giulio Fella, 2011. "A generalized endogenous grid method for non-concave problems," 2011 Meeting Papers 1232, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  9. David Berger & Joseph Vavra, 2014. "Consumption Dynamics During Recessions," NBER Working Papers 20175, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Tim Landvoigt, 2010. "Housing Demand during the Boom: The Role of Expectations and Credit Constraints," 2010 Meeting Papers 1022, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  11. Christoph Görtz & Afrasiab Mirza, 2014. "On the Applicability of Global Approximation Methods for Models with Jump Discontinuities in Policy Functions," CESifo Working Paper Series 4837, CESifo Group Munich.
  12. A. Talha Yalta, 2011. "A Model of Down Payment Saving," Working Papers 1101, TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Department of Economics.
  13. Joseph Vavra & David Berger, 2012. "Consumption Dynamics During the Great Recession," 2012 Meeting Papers 109, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  14. Määttänen, Niku & Terviö, Marko, 2010. "Income Distribution and Housing Prices: An Assignment Model Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 7945, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Marsha J. Courchane & Cynthia Holmes, 2014. "Bubble, Bubble ¡V Is there House Price Trouble -- in Canada?," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 17(1), pages 109-135.
  16. Dominik Menno & Tommaso Oliviero, 2013. "Financial Intermediation, House Prices, and the Distributive Effects of the U.S. Great Recession," Economics Working Papers ECO2013/05, European University Institute.
  17. Winfried Koeniger & Thomas Hintermaier, 2012. "Collateral constraints and macroeconomic volatility," 2012 Meeting Papers 390, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  18. Yanbin Chen & Fangxing Li & Zhesheng Qiu, 2013. "Housing and Saving with Finance Imperfection," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 14(1), pages 207-248, May.

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