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Bubbles, banks and financial stability

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  • Aoki, Kosuke
  • Nikolov, Kalin

Abstract

We build a model of rational bubbles in a limited commitment economy and show that the impact of the bubble on the real economy crucially depends on who holds the bubble. When banks are the bubble-holders, this amplifies the output boom while the bubble survives but also deepens the recession when the bubble bursts. In contrast, the real impact of bubbles held by ordinary savers is more muted. JEL Classification:

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1495.

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Date of creation: Nov 2012
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20121495

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Keywords: financial stability;

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References

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  1. Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno & Lawrence J. Christiano, 2010. "Financial Factors in Economic Fluctuations," 2010 Meeting Papers 141, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 1065-1188, November.
  3. Philip Lowe & Claudio Borio, 2002. "Asset prices, financial and monetary stability: exploring the nexus," BIS Working Papers 114, Bank for International Settlements.
  4. John Moore & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, . "Credit Cycles," Discussion Papers 1995-5, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
  5. Martin, Alberto & Ventura, Jaume, 2010. "Theoretical Notes on Bubbles and the Current Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 8038, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Kosuke Aoki & Gianluca Benigno & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, 2010. "Adjusting to Capital Account Liberalization," CEP Discussion Papers dp1014, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  7. Farhi, Emmanuel & Tirole, Jean, 2009. "Bubbly Liquidity," IDEI Working Papers 577, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse, revised Feb 2011.
  8. Ventura, Jaume, 2002. "Bubbles and Capital Flows," CEPR Discussion Papers 3657, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Andrew B. Bernard & Jonathan Eaton & J. Bradford Jensen & Samuel Kortum, 2000. "Plants and Productivity in International Trade," Boston University - Institute for Economic Development 105, Boston University, Institute for Economic Development.
  10. Ivo Welch, 2002. "Capital Structure and Stock Returns," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm263, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Aug 2003.
  11. Francisco Covas & Wouter J. Den Haan, 2011. "The Cyclical Behavior of Debt and Equity Finance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(2), pages 877-99, April.
  12. Nikolov, Kalin, 2011. "A model of borrower reputation as intangible collateral," MPRA Paper 32939, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Alessi, Lucia & Detken, Carsten, 2009. "'Real time'early warning indicators for costly asset price boom/bust cycles: a role for global liquidity," Working Paper Series 1039, European Central Bank.
  14. Gertler, Mark & Karadi, Peter, 2011. "A model of unconventional monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-34, January.
  15. Chad Syverson, 2004. "Market Structure and Productivity: A Concrete Example," NBER Working Papers 10501, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Ricardo J. Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2005. "Bubbles and Capital Flow Volatility: Causes and Risk Management," NBER Working Papers 11618, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Césaire Meh & Kevin Moran, 2008. "The Role of Bank Capital in the Propagation of Shocks," Working Papers 08-36, Bank of Canada.
  18. Tirole, Jean, 1985. "Asset Bubbles and Overlapping Generations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1499-1528, November.
  19. John H. Boyd & Gianni De Nicoló & Abu M. Jalal, 2009. "Bank Competition, Risk and Asset Allocations," IMF Working Papers 09/143, International Monetary Fund.
  20. Kareken, John H & Wallace, Neil, 1978. "Deposit Insurance and Bank Regulation: A Partial-Equilibrium Exposition," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(3), pages 413-38, July.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Hirano, Tomohiro & Inaba, Masaru, 2010. "Asset Price Bubbles in the Kiyotaki-Moore Model," MPRA Paper 36632, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Tomohiro Hirano & Masaru Inaba & Noriyuki Yanagawa, 2014. "Asset Bubbles and Bailouts," CIGS Working Paper Series 14-001E, The Canon Institute for Global Studies.
    • Tomohiro Hirano & Masaru Inaba & Noriyuki Yanagawa, 2012. "Asset Bubbles and Bailouts," CARF F-Series CARF-F-268, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
  3. Martin, Alberto & Ventura, Jaume, 2014. "Managing Credit Bubbles," CEPR Discussion Papers 9902, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Tomohiro Hirano & Noriyuki Yanagawa, 2012. "Asset Bubbles and Bailout," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-838, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    • Tomohiro Hirano & Masaru Inaba & Noriyuki Yanagawa, 2012. "Asset Bubbles and Bailouts," CARF F-Series CARF-F-268, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
  5. Tomohiro Hirano & Noriyuki Yanagawa, 2010. "Asset Bubbles, Endogenous Growth, and Financial Frictions," CARF F-Series CARF-F-223, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo, revised Sep 2010.

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