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Bubbles, banks and financial stability

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  • Aoki, Kosuke
  • Nikolov, Kalin

Abstract

We build a model of rational bubbles in a limited commitment economy and show that the impact of the bubble on the real economy crucially depends on who holds the bubble. When banks are the bubble-holders, this amplifies the output boom while the bubble survives but also deepens the recession when the bubble bursts. In contrast, the real impact of bubbles held by ordinary savers is more muted. JEL Classification:

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1495.

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Date of creation: Nov 2012
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20121495

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Keywords: financial stability;

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References

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  1. Jaume Ventura, 2002. "Bubbles and capital flows," Economics Working Papers 846, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Mar 2010.
  2. Ivo Welch, 2002. "Capital Structure and Stock Returns," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm263, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Aug 2003.
  3. Andrew B Bernard & Jonathan Eaton & J. Bradford Jensen & Samuel Kortum, 2000. "Plants and productivity in international trade," Working Papers 00-08, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
  4. Martin, Alberto & Ventura, Jaume, 2010. "Theoretical Notes on Bubbles and the Current Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 8038, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  6. Alessi, Lucia & Detken, Carsten, 2009. "'Real time'early warning indicators for costly asset price boom/bust cycles: a role for global liquidity," Working Paper Series 1039, European Central Bank.
  7. Philip Lowe & Claudio Borio, 2002. "Asset prices, financial and monetary stability: exploring the nexus," BIS Working Papers 114, Bank for International Settlements.
  8. Jean Tirole & Emmanuel Farhi, 2011. "Bubbly Liquidity," 2011 Meeting Papers 1081, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  9. Chad Syverson, 2001. "Market Structure and Productivity: A Concrete Example," Working Papers 01-06, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
  10. Meh, Césaire A. & Moran, Kevin, 2010. "The role of bank capital in the propagation of shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 555-576, March.
  11. Francisco Covas & Wouter J. Den Haan, 2011. "The Cyclical Behavior of Debt and Equity Finance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(2), pages 877-99, April.
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  13. Aoki, Kosuke & Benigno, Gianluca & Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro, 2010. "Adjusting to Capital Account Liberalization," CEPR Discussion Papers 8087, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Nikolov, Kalin, 2011. "A model of borrower reputation as intangible collateral," MPRA Paper 32939, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  15. Caballero, Ricardo J. & Krishnamurthy, Arvind, 2006. "Bubbles and capital flow volatility: Causes and risk management," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 35-53, January.
  16. Gertler, Mark & Karadi, Peter, 2011. "A model of unconventional monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-34, January.
  17. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 1065-1188, November.
  18. John H. Boyd & Gianni De Nicoló & Abu M. Jalal, 2009. "Bank Competition, Risk and Asset Allocations," IMF Working Papers 09/143, International Monetary Fund.
  19. Tirole, Jean, 1985. "Asset Bubbles and Overlapping Generations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1499-1528, November.
  20. Christiano, Lawrence & Rostagno, Massimo & Motto, Roberto, 2010. "Financial factors in economic fluctuations," Working Paper Series 1192, European Central Bank.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Alberto Martin & Jaume Ventura, 2012. "Managing credit bubbles," Economics Working Papers 1367, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jun 2014.
  2. Tomohiro Hirano & Masaru Inaba & Noriyuki Yanagawa, 2012. "Asset Bubbles and Bailouts," CARF F-Series CARF-F-268, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
  3. Hirano, Tomohiro & Inaba, Masaru, 2010. "Asset Price Bubbles in the Kiyotaki-Moore Model," MPRA Paper 36632, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Tomohiro Hirano & Noriyuki Yanagawa, 2010. "Asset Bubbles, Endogenous Growth, and Financial Frictions," CARF F-Series CARF-F-223, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo, revised Sep 2010.

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