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Theoretical notes on bubbles and the current crisis

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Abstract

We explore a view of the crisis as a shock to investor sentiment that led to the collapse of a bubble or pyramid scheme in financial markets. We embed this view in a standard model of the financial accelerator and explore its empirical and policy implications. In particular, we show how the model can account for: (i) a gradual and protracted expansionary phase followed by a sudden and sharp recession; (ii) the connection (or lack of connection!) between financial and real economic activity and; (iii) a fast and strong transmission of shocks across countries. We also use the model to explore the role of fiscal policy.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra in its series Economics Working Papers with number 1222.

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Date of creation: May 2010
Date of revision: Feb 2011
Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:1222

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Web page: http://www.econ.upf.edu/

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Keywords: bubbles; dynamic inefficiency; financial accelerator; credit constraints; financial crisis; pyramid schemes.;

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References

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  1. Ventura, Jaume, 2002. "Bubbles and Capital Flows," CEPR Discussion Papers 3657, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Jaume Ventura & Aart Kraay, 2005. "The dot-com bubble, the Bush deficits and the US current account," Economics Working Papers 847, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Dec 2005.
  3. Alberto Martin & Jaume Ventura, 2012. "Economic Growth with Bubbles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 3033-58, October.
  4. Grossman, Gene M. & Yanagawa, Noriyuki, 1993. "Asset bubbles and endogenous growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 3-19, February.
  5. Ricardo J. Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2005. "Bubbles and Capital Flow Volatility: Causes and Risk Management," NBER Working Papers 11618, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 1996. "Agency costs, net worth, and business fluctuations: a computable general equilibrium analysis," Working Paper 9602, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  7. Gourinchas, Pierre-Oliver & Farhi, Emmanuel & Caballero, Ricardo J., 2008. "Financial Crash, Commodity Prices, and Global Imbalances," Scholarly Articles 3229095, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  8. Tirole, Jean, 1985. "Asset Bubbles and Overlapping Generations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1499-1528, November.
  9. John Moore & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, . "Credit Cycles," Discussion Papers 1995-5, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
  10. Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 467.
  11. King, Ian & Ferguson, Don, 1993. "Dynamic inefficiency, endogenous growth, and Ponzi games," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 79-104, August.
  12. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Lee Ohanian, 2010. "The Spanish Crisis from a Global Perspective," Working Papers 2010-03, FEDEA.
  13. Azariadis Costas & Smith Bruce D., 1993. "Adverse Selection in the Overlapping Generations Model: The Case of Pure Exchange," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 277-305, August.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Alberto Martin, 2010. "Economic Growth with Bubbles," 2010 Meeting Papers 788, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Aoki, Kosuke & Nikolov, Kalin, 2012. "Bubbles, banks and financial stability," Working Paper Series 1495, European Central Bank.
  3. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Thomas M. Eisenbach & Yuliy Sannikov, 2012. "Macroeconomics with Financial Frictions: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 18102, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Pengfei Wang & Jianjun Miao, 2012. "Sectoral Bubbles and Endogenous Growth," 2012 Meeting Papers 227, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  5. Pengfei Wang & Jianjun Miao, 2011. "Bubbles and Credit Constraints," 2011 Meeting Papers 94, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  6. Rossana Merola, 2013. "The role of financial frictions in the 2007-2008 crisis: an estimated DSGE model," Working Papers Department of Economics 2013/08, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
  7. Robert E. Hall, 2011. "The Long Slump," NBER Working Papers 16741, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. de la Torre, Augusto & Ize, Alain, 2011. "Containing systemic risk : paradigm-based perspectives on regulatory reform," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5523, The World Bank.
  9. Eden, Maya, 2012. "Financial distortions and the distribution of global volatility," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5929, The World Bank.
  10. Bruno Coric, 2011. "The financial accelerator effect: concept and challenges," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 35(2), pages 171-196.
  11. Xiao, Fenglong, 2011. "When organization encounters uncertainty in regulatory times," MPRA Paper 36240, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Giancarlo Bertocco, 2011. "Global Saving Glut and housing bubble: a critical analysis," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf1112, Department of Economics, University of Insubria.

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