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A Dynamic Model Of Housing Demand: Estimation And Policy Implications

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  • Patrick Bajari
  • Phoebe Chan
  • Dirk Krueger
  • Daniel Miller

Abstract

Using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) we specify, estimate and simulate a dynamic structural model of housing demand. Our model generalizes previous applied econometric work by incorporating realistic features of the housing market including non-convex adjustment costs from buying and selling a home, credit constraints from minimum downpayment requirements and uncertainty about the evolution of incomes and home prices. We argue that these features are critical for capturing salient features of housing demand observed in the PSID. After estimating the model we use it to simulate how consumer behavior responds to house price and income declines as well as tightening credit. These experiments are motivated by the U.S. recession starting in December of 2007 that saw large falls in home prices, large negative income shocks for many households and tightening credit standards. In the short run, relatively few households adjust their housing stock. Households respond instead by reducing non-housing consumption and reducing wealth because they wish to avoid losing their home and the associated adjustment costs. Households that adjust in the short run are those hit with a series of bad shocks, such as a negative income shock and a home price decline. A larger proportion of households do adjust their consumption in the long run, increasing their housing stock since housing is less expensive. However, such changes may occur several years after the shocks listed above.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/iere.12001
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association in its journal International Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 54 (2013)
Issue (Month): 2 (05)
Pages: 409-442

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Handle: RePEc:wly:iecrev:v:54:y:2013:i:2:p:409-442

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References

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  1. Matteo Iacoviello & Marina Pavan, 2009. "Housing and debt over the life cycle and over the business cycle," Working Papers 09-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  2. Matthew Chambers & Carlos Garriga & Don E. Schlagenhauf, 2009. "Accounting For Changes In The Homeownership Rate," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(3), pages 677-726, 08.
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  4. Karsten Jeske & Dirk Krueger & Kurt Mitman, 2011. "Housing and the Macroeconomy: The Role of Bailout Guarantees for Government Sponsored Enterprises," PIER Working Paper Archive 11-034, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Krueger, Dirk, 2011. "Consumption And Saving Over The Life Cycle: How Important Are Consumer Durables?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(05), pages 725-770, November.
  2. Hillebrand, Marten & Kikuchi, Tomoo, 2012. "A mechanism for booms and busts in housing prices," Working Paper Series in Economics 40, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Department of Economics and Business Engineering.
  3. Honglin Wang & Fan Yu & Yinggang Zhou, 2013. "Rental Rates under Housing Price Uncertainty: A Real Options Approach," Working Papers 242013, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  4. Joseph Vavra & David Berger, 2012. "Consumption Dynamics During the Great Recession," 2012 Meeting Papers 109, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  5. A. Talha Yalta, 2011. "A Model of Down Payment Saving," Working Papers 1101, TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Department of Economics.
  6. Marsha J. Courchane & Cynthia Holmes, 2014. "Bubble, Bubble ¡V Is there House Price Trouble -- in Canada?," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 17(1), pages 109-135.
  7. Giulio Fella, 2014. "A generalized endogenous grid method for non-smooth and non-concave problems," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(2), pages 329-344, April.
  8. Winfried Koeniger & Thomas Hintermaier, 2012. "Collateral constraints and macroeconomic volatility," 2012 Meeting Papers 390, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  9. Määttänen, Niku & Terviö, Marko, 2010. "Income Distribution and Housing Prices: An Assignment Model Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 7945, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Giulio Fella, 2011. "A generalized endogenous grid method for non-concave problems," 2011 Meeting Papers 1232, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  11. Bover, Olympia, 2010. "Housing purchases and the dynamics of housing wealth," CEPR Discussion Papers 8128, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Łaszek, Jacek, 2013. "Housing in consumer’s theory," MPRA Paper 52365, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Dominik Menno & Tommaso Oliviero, 2013. "Financial Intermediation, House Prices, and the Distributive Effects of the U.S. Great Recession," Economics Working Papers ECO2013/05, European University Institute.
  14. Christoph Görtz & Afrasiab Mirza, 2014. "On the Applicability of Global Approximation Methods for Models with Jump Discontinuities in Policy Functions," CESifo Working Paper Series 4837, CESifo Group Munich.
  15. Tim Landvoigt, 2010. "Housing Demand during the Boom: The Role of Expectations and Credit Constraints," 2010 Meeting Papers 1022, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  16. Wenli Li & Haiyong Liu & Rui Yao, 2009. "Housing over time and over the life cycle: a structural estimation," Working Papers 09-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  17. Yanbin Chen & Fangxing Li & Zhesheng Qiu, 2013. "Housing and Saving with Finance Imperfection," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 14(1), pages 207-248, May.

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