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Housing and the Macroeconomy: The Role of Bailout Guarantees for Government Sponsored Enterprises

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Author Info

  • Karsten Jeske

    ()
    (Mellon Capital Management Corporation, San Francisco, CA)

  • Dirk Krueger

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania)

  • Kurt Mitman

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania)

Abstract

This paper evaluates the macroeconomic and distributional effects of government bailout guarantees for Government Sponsored Enterprises (such as Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac) in the mortgage market. In order to do so we construct a model with heterogeneous, infinitely lived households and competitive housing and mortgage markets. Households have the option to default on their mortgages, with the consequence of having their homes foreclosed. We model the bailout guarantee as a government provided and tax-financed mortgage interest rate subsidy. We find that eliminating this subsidy leads to substantially lower equilibrium mortgage origination and increases aggregate welfare, but has little effect on foreclosure rates and housing investment. The interest rate subsidy is a regressive policy: eliminating it benefits low-income and low-asset households who did not own homes or had small mortgages, while lowering the welfare of high-income, high-asset households.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania in its series PIER Working Paper Archive with number 11-034.

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Length: 45 pages
Date of creation: 12 Oct 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pen:papers:11-034

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Keywords: Housing; Mortgage Market; Default Risk; Government-Sponsored Enterprises;

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References

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  1. Huggett, Mark, 1993. "The risk-free rate in heterogeneous-agent incomplete-insurance economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(5-6), pages 953-969.
  2. Satyajit Chatterjee & Dean Corbae & Makoto Nakajima & José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, 2007. "A Quantitative Theory of Unsecured Consumer Credit with Risk of Default," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(6), pages 1525-1589, November.
  3. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Dirk Krueger, 2004. "Consumption and Saving over the Life Cycle: How Important are Consumer Durables?," 2004 Meeting Papers 357b, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  4. Michael Haliassos, Alexander Michaelides, 2000. "Portfolio Choice And Liquidity Constraints," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 297, Society for Computational Economics.
  5. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Jonathan A. Parker, 2002. "Consumption Over the Life Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 47-89, January.
  6. John Y. Campbell & Stefano Giglio & Parag Pathak, 2011. "Forced Sales and House Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 2108-31, August.
  7. W. Scott Frame & Larry Wall, 2002. "Financing housing through government-sponsored enterprises," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q1, pages 29-43.
  8. Gervais, Martin, 2002. "Housing taxation and capital accumulation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(7), pages 1461-1489, October.
  9. Matt Chambers & Carlos Garriga & Don Schlagenhauf, 2009. "The Loan Structure and Housing Tenure Decisions in an Equilibrium Model of Mortgage Choice," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(3), pages 444-468, July.
  10. Igor Livshits & James MacGee & Mich�le Tertilt, 2007. "Consumer Bankruptcy: A Fresh Start," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 402-418, March.
  11. Satyajit Chatterjee & Burcu Eyigungor, 2009. "Foreclosures and house price dynamics: a quantitative analysis of the mortgage crisis and the foreclosure prevention policy," Working Papers 09-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  12. Anthony Pennington-Cross, 2006. "The Value of Foreclosed Property," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 28(2), pages 193-214.
  13. Kristopher S. Gerardi & Harvey S. Rosen & Paul S. Willen, 2010. "The Impact of Deregulation and Financial Innovation on Consumers: The Case of the Mortgage Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(1), pages 333-360, 02.
  14. Christopher L. Foote & Kristopher S. Gerardi & Lorenz Goette & Paul S. Willen, 2009. "Reducing foreclosures," Public Policy Discussion Paper 09-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  15. W. Scott Frame & Larry Wall, 2002. "Fannie Mae's and Freddie Mac's voluntary initiatives: Lessons from banking," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q1, pages 45-59.
  16. Tauchen, George & Hussey, Robert, 1991. "Quadrature-Based Methods for Obtaining Approximate Solutions to Nonlinear Asset Pricing Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 371-96, March.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Jonathan Halket, 2009. "Home Ownership, Savings and Mobility Over The Life Cycle," 2009 Meeting Papers 295, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Leonardo Martinez & Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Juan M. Sanchez, 2012. "Mortgage Defaults," IMF Working Papers 12/26, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Patrick Bajari & Phoebe Chan & Dirk Krueger & Daniel Miller, 2010. "A Dynamic Model of Housing Demand: Estimation and Policy Implications," NBER Working Papers 15955, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Satyajit Chatterjee & Burcu Eyigungor, 2011. "A quantitative analysis of the U.S. housing and mortgage markets and the foreclosure crisis," Working Papers 11-26, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  5. Jonathan Halket & Santhanagopalan Vasudev, 2014. "Saving Up or Settling Down: Home Ownership over the Life Cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(2), pages 345-366, April.
  6. Børsum, Øystein, 2010. "Contagious Mortgage Default," Memorandum 10/2010, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  7. Grey Gordon & Pablo Guerrón-Quintana, 2013. "Dynamics of investment, debt, and default," Working Papers 13-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  8. Kartik B. Athreya & Xuan S. Tam & Eric R. Young, 2011. "Loan guarantees for consumer credit markets," Working Paper 11-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

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