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Housing and the Macroeconomy: The Role of Bailout Guarantees for Government Sponsored Enterprises

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  • Jeske, Karsten
  • Krueger, Dirk
  • Mitman, Kurt

Abstract

This paper evaluates the macroeconomic and distributional effects of government bailout guarantees for Government Sponsored Enterprises (such as Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac) in the mortgage market. In order to do so we construct a model with heterogeneous, infinitely lived households and competitive housing and mortgage markets. Households have the option to default on their mortgages, with the consequence of having their homes foreclosed. We model the bailout guarantee as a government provided and tax-financed mortgage interest rate subsidy. We find that eliminating this subsidy leads to substantially lower equilibrium mortgage origination and increases aggregate welfare, but has little effect on foreclosure rates and housing investment. The interest rate subsidy is a regressive policy: eliminating it benefits low-income and low-asset households who did not own homes or had small mortgages, while lowering the welfare of high-income, high-asset households.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 8624.

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Date of creation: Oct 2011
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8624

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Keywords: Default Risk; Government-Sponsored Enterprises; Housing; Mortgage Market;

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References

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  7. Matthew Chambers & Carlos Garriga & Don Schlagenhauf, 2009. "The loan structure and housing tenure decisions in an equilibrium model of mortgage choice," Working Papers 2008-024, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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  9. Huggett, Mark, 1993. "The risk-free rate in heterogeneous-agent incomplete-insurance economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(5-6), pages 953-969.
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  11. Satyajit Chatterjee & Dean Corbae & Makoto Nakajima & Jose-Victor Rios-Rull, 2007. "A quantitative theory of unsecured consumer credit with risk of default," Working Papers 07-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  12. Christopher L. Foote & Kristopher S. Gerardi & Lorenz Goette & Paul S. Willen, 2009. "Reducing foreclosures," Public Policy Discussion Paper 09-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  13. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Krueger, Dirk, 2011. "Consumption And Saving Over The Life Cycle: How Important Are Consumer Durables?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(05), pages 725-770, November.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Dean Corbae & Erwan Quintin, 2013. "Leverage and the Foreclosure Crisis," NBER Working Papers 19323, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Jonathan Halket & Santhanagopalan Vasudev, 2013. "Online Appendix to "Saving Up or Settling Down: Home Ownership over the Life Cycle," Technical Appendices 12-89, Review of Economic Dynamics.
  3. Satyajit Chatterjee & Burcu Eyigungor, 2011. "A quantitative analysis of the U.S. housing and mortgage markets and the foreclosure crisis," Working Papers 11-26, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  4. Jonathan Halket & Santhanagopalan Vasudev, 2012. "Home Ownership, Savings, and Mobility Over The Life Cycle," Economics Discussion Papers 712, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
  5. Børsum, Øystein, 2010. "Contagious Mortgage Default," Memorandum 10/2010, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  6. Kartik B. Athreya & Xuan S. Tam & Eric R. Young, 2011. "Loan guarantees for consumer credit markets," Working Paper 11-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  7. James Kahn & Omer Acikgoz, 2013. "Mortgage Guarantees and House Price Inflation: A Quantitative Analysis," 2013 Meeting Papers 1075, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  8. Patrick Bajari & Phoebe Chan & Dirk Krueger & Daniel Miller, 2010. "A Dynamic Model of Housing Demand: Estimation and Policy Implications," NBER Working Papers 15955, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Hui Chen & Michael Michaux & Nikolai Roussanov, 2013. "Houses as ATMs? Mortgage Refinancing and Macroeconomic Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 19421, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & Juan M. Sanchez, 2011. "Mortgage defaults," Working Paper 11-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  11. Grey Gordon & Pablo Guerrón-Quintana, 2013. "Dynamics of investment, debt, and default," Working Papers 13-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

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