In a stochastic two-period OLG model, featuring an aggregate shock to the economy, ex-ante optimality requires intergenerational risk sharing. We compare the level of time-consistent intergenerational risk sharing chosen by a social planner and by office seeking politicians. In the political setting, the transfer of resources across generations — a PAYG pension system — is determined as a Markov equilibrium of a probabilistic voting game. Negative shocks represented by low realized returns on the risky asset induce politicians to compensate the old through a PAYG system. Unless the young are crucial to win the election, this political system generates more intergenerational risk sharing than the (time consistent) social optimum. In particular, these transfers are more persistent and less responsive to the realization of the shock than optimal. This is because politicians anticipate their current transfers to the elderly to be compensated through offsetting transfers by future politicians, and thus have an incentive to overspend. Perhaps surprisingly, aging increases the socially optimal transfer but makes politicians less likely to overspend, by making it more costly for future politicians to compensate the current young.
Download Info
To download:
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the
proper application to
view it first. Information about this may be contained
in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read
the IDEAS help
page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS
site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Publisher Info
Paper provided by IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University in its series Working Papers with number
342.
Length: Date of creation: 2008 Date of revision: Handle: RePEc:igi:igierp:342
Contact details of provider: Postal: via Rontgen, 1 - 20136 Milano (Italy) Phone: 0039-02-58363301 Fax: 0039-02-58363302 Web page: http://www.igier.unibocconi.it/
References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
John Hassler & José V. Rodríguez Mora & Kjetil Storesletten & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2001.
"The Survival of the Welfare State,"
Economics Working Papers
603, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions:
Hassler, John & Mora, Jose & Storesletten, Kjetil & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 2002.
"The Survival of the Welfare State,"
Seminar Papers
704, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
[Downloadable!]
John Hassler & José V. Rodríguez Mora & Kjetil Storesletten & Abrizio Zilibotti, 2003.
"The Survival of the Welfare State,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 87-112, March.
[Downloadable!]
Stephen Coate & Stephen Morris, 1999.
"Policy Persistence,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1327-1336, December.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
Stephen Coate & Stephen Morris, .
""Policy Persistence '',"
CARESS Working Papres
95-19, University of Pennsylvania Center for Analytic Research and Economics in the Social Sciences.
[Downloadable!]
Stephen Coate & Stephen Morris, .
"Policy Persistence,"
CARESS Working Papres
97-2, University of Pennsylvania Center for Analytic Research and Economics in the Social Sciences.
[Downloadable!]
J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Vincenzo Galasso, 2003.
"Early Retirement,"
Review of Economic Dynamics,
Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(1), pages 12-36, January.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)