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Pension Systems and the Allocation of Macroeconomic Risk

In: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2006

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  • Lans Bovenberg
  • Harald Uhlig

Abstract

This paper explores the optimal risk sharing arrangement between generations in an overlapping generations model with endogenous growth.We allow for nonseparable preferences, paying particular attention to the risk aversion of the old as well as overall "life-cycle" risk aversion.We provide a fairly tractable model, which can serve as a starting point to explore these issues in models with a larger number of periods of life, and show how it can be solved.We provide a general risk sharing condition, and discuss its implications.We explore the properties of the model quantitatively.Among the key findings are the following.First and for reasonable parameters, the old typically bear a larger burden of the risk in productivity surprises, if old-age risk-aversion is smaller than life risk aversion, and vice versa.Thus, it is not necessarily the case that the young ensure smooth consumption of the old.Second, consumption of the young and the old always move in the same direction, even for population growth shocks.This result is in contrast to the result of a fully-funded decentralized system without risk-sharing between generations.Third, persistent increases in longevity will lead to lower total consumption of the old (and thus certainly lower per-period consumption of the old) as well as the young as well as higher work effort of the young.The additional resources are instead used to increase growth and future output, resulting in higher consumption of future generations.

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This chapter was published in:

  • Lucrezia Reichlin & Kenneth West, 2008. "NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2006," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number reic08-1, January.
    This item is provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Chapters with number 7038.

    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:7038

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    2. De Menil, Georges & Murtin, Fabrice & Sheshinski, Eytan, 2006. "Planning for the optimal mix of paygo tax and funded savings," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(01), pages 1-25, March.
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    Cited by:
    1. R. Beetsma & A. L. Bovenberg, 2006. "Pension systems, intergenerational risk sharing and inflation," European Economy - Economic Papers, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission 257, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    2. Cai Cai Du & Joan Muysken & Olaf Sleijpen, 2011. "Economy wide risk diversification in a three-pillar pension system," DNB Working Papers, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department 286, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

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