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Economy wide risk diversification in a three-pillar pension system

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  • Cai Cai Du
  • Joan Muysken
  • Olaf Sleijpen

Abstract

We model a three-pillar pension system and analyse in this context the impact of exogenous shocks on an open economy, using an overlapping generations model where individuals live for two periods. The three-pillar pension system consists of (1) a PAYG pension system, (2) a defined benefit pension fund, and (3) private savings. The economy is exposed to an ageing trend, inflation and a stock market crash. We show that in the three-pillar pension system the impact of these shocks on the economy is mitigated when compared to a two- pillar system, since each shock has a different impact on the three pillars. In order to illustrate the working of the model with respect to the impact of these shocks, both in magnitude and the development over time, we provide simulation results for the Netherlands.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department in its series DNB Working Papers with number 286.

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Date of creation: Mar 2011
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Handle: RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:286

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  1. Bovenberg, A Lans & Uhlig, Harald, 2006. "Pension Systems and the Allocation of Macroeconomic Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 5949, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Kemmerling, Achim & Neugart, Michael, 2009. "Financial market lobbies and pension reform," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 163-173, June.
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  4. Paul R. Masson & Ralph W. Tryon, 1990. "Macroeconomic Effects of Projected Population Aging in Industrial Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(3), pages 453-485, September.
  5. Edwards, Sebastian, 1996. "Why are Latin America's savings rates so low? An international comparative analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 5-44, October.
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  7. HENIN, P. Y. & WEITZENBLUM, Th., 2005. "Welfare effects of alternative pension reforms: Assessing the transition costs for French socio-occupational groups," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(03), pages 249-271, November.
  8. Oliveira Martins, Joaquim & Gonand, Frédéric & Antolín, Pablo & de la Maisonneuve, Christine & Yoo, Kwang-Yeol, 2005. "The Impact of Ageing on Demand, Factor Markets and Growth," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/11049, Paris Dauphine University.
  9. Verbic, Miroslav, 2007. "Modelling the pension system in an overlapping-generations general equilibrium modelling framework," MPRA Paper 10350, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Cagacan DEGER, 2011. "Pension Reform in an Overlapping Model with Multiple Social Security Systems," Ege Academic Review, Ege University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 11(4), pages 563-572.
  11. Konstantins Benkovskis, 2006. "The Effect of Latvian Pension Reform on Savings and Government Budget," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 6(1), pages 3-21, July.
  12. Nick Draper & Alex Armstrong, 2007. "GAMMA; a simulation model for ageing, pensions and public finances," CPB Document 147, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  13. Alex Armstrong & Nick Draper & André Nibbelink & Ed Westerhout, 2007. "Fiscal prefunding in response to demographic uncertainty," CPB Discussion Paper 85, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  14. Çagaçan Deger, 2008. "Pension Reform in an OLG Model with Multiple Social Security Systems," ERC Working Papers 0805, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Oct 2008.
  15. Bas van Groezen & Lex Meijdam & Harrie A. A. Verbon, 2007. "The Case For Pay-As-You-Go Pensions In A Service Economy," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 54(2), pages 151-165, 05.
  16. Luca Gori & Luciano Fanti, 2008. "Longevity and PAYG pension systems sustainability," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 10(2), pages 1-8.
  17. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:10:y:2008:i:2:p:1-8 is not listed on IDEAS
  18. Jan Bonenkamp & Martijn van de Ven, 2006. "A small stochastic model of a pension fund with endogenous saving," CPB Memorandum 168, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  19. Jan Bonenkamp & Ed Westerhout, 2010. "Intergenerational risk sharing and labour supply in collective funded pension schemes with defined benefits," CPB Discussion Paper 151, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
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