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The Evolution of Retirement

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Author Info
J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz
Vincenzo Galasso
Paola Profeta

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Abstract

We provide a long term perspective on the individual retirement behavior and on the future of early retirement. In a cross-country sample, we find that total pension spending depends positively on the degree of early retirement and on the share of elderly in the population, which increase the proportion of retirees, but has hardly any effect on the per-capita pension benefits. We show that in a Markovian political economic theoretical framework, in which incentives to retire early are embedded, a political equilibrium is characterized by an increasing sequence of social security contribution rates converging to a steady state and early retirement. Comparative statics suggest that aging and productivity slow-downs lead to higher taxes and more early retirement. However, when income effects are factored in, the model suggests that periods of stagnation — characterized by decreasing labor income — may lead middle aged individuals to postpone retirement.

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Paper provided by IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University in its series Working Papers with number 278.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:igi:igierp:278

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Azariadis, Costas & Galasso, Vincenzo, 2002. "Fiscal Constitutions," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 103(2), pages 255-281, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Casamatta, Georges & Cremer, Helmuth & Pestieau, Pierre, 2000. "The Political Economy of Social Security," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Marco Bassetto, 1999. "Political economy of taxation in an overlapping-generations economy," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 133, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Cremer, Helmuth & Pestieau, Pierre, 2002. "The Double Dividend of Postponing Retirement," IDEI Working Papers 144, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse, revised 2003. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Cremer, Helmuth & Lozachmeur, Jean-Marie & Pestieau, Pierre, 2004. "Social security, retirement age and optimal income taxation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(11), pages 2259-2281, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Boskin, Michael J. & Hurd, Michael D., 1978. "The effect of social security on early retirement," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 361-377, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Jonathan Gruber & David A. Wise, 2002. "Social Security Programs and Retirement Around the World: Micro Estimation," NBER Working Papers 9407, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Crawford, Vincent P & Lilien, David M, 1981. "Social Security and the Retirement Decision," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 96(3), pages 505-29, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. John Hassler & José V. Rodríguez Mora & Kjetil Storesletten & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2001. "The Survival of the Welfare State," Economics Working Papers 603, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Lorenzo Forni, 2005. "Social Security as Markov Equilibrium in OLG Models," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(1), pages 178-194, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Diamond, P. A. & Mirrlees, J. A., 1978. "A model of social insurance with variable retirement," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 295-336, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Conde-Ruiz, J. Ignacio & Galasso, Vincenzo, 2004. "The macroeconomics of early retirement," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(9-10), pages 1849-1869, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Courtney Coile & Jonathan Gruber, 2000. "Social Security and Retirement," NBER Working Papers 7830, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Feldstein, Martin S, 1974. "Social Security, Induced Retirement, and Aggregate Capital Accumulation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(5), pages 905-26, Sept./Oct. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Krusell, Per & Quadrini, Vincenzo & Rios-Rull, Jose-Victor, 1997. "Politico-economic equilibrium and economic growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 243-272, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Casamatta, Georges & Cremer, Helmuth & Pestieau, Pierre, 2003. "Voting on Pensions with Endogenous Retirement Age," CEPR Discussion Papers 3778, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. MICHEL, Philippe & PESTIEAU, Pierre & ,, 1999. "Social security and early retirement in an overlapping-generations growth model," CORE Discussion Papers 1999051, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE). [Downloadable!]
  21. Svend E. Hougaard Jensen & Morten I. Lau & Panu Poutvaara, 2004. "Efficiency and Equity Aspects of Alternative Social Security Rules," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 60(3), pages 325-, September.
  22. Paola Profeta, 2002. "Aging and Retirement: Evidence Across Countries," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 9(6), pages 651-672, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Gonzales-Eiras, Martín & Niepelt, Dirk, 2004. "Sustaining Social Security," Seminar Papers 731, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  24. J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Vincenzo Galasso, . "Early retirement," Working Papers 2003-03, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
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  25. Lazear, Edward P, 1979. "Why Is There Mandatory Retirement?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(6), pages 1261-84, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Juan F. Jimeno, . "Demografía, empleo, salarios y pensiones," Working Papers 2002-04, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Namkee Ahn & Juan Ramón García & José A. Herce, . "Demographic Uncertainty and Health Care Expenditure in Spain," Working Papers 2005-07, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  2. Gilles Le Garrec, 2005. "Systèmes de retraite et vieillissement," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2005-21, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE). [Downloadable!]
  3. Juan Antonio Lacomba & Francisco Miguel Lagos, 2005. "Population Aging and Legal Retirement Age," ThE Papers 05/16, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada.. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Corinne Mette, . "Wellbeing and dependency among European elderly: The role of social integration," Working Papers 2005-12, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  5. Gerhard Glomm & Juergen Jung & Chung Tran, 2006. "Macroeconomic Implications of Early Retirement in the Public Sector: The Case of Brazil," Caepr Working Papers 2006-008, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington. [Downloadable!]
  6. José M. Labeaga & Ester Martínez Ros, . "Persistence and ability in the innovation decisions," Working Papers 2005-16, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Namkee Ahn, . "Life Satisfaction among Spanish Workers: Importance of Intangible Job Characteristics," Working Papers 2005-17, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  8. José M. Labeaga & Xisco Oliver & Amedeo Spadaro, . "Measuring Changes in Health Capital," Working Papers 2005-15, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  9. Ana Carolina Ortega Masagué, . "La situación laboral de los inmigrantes en España: Un análisis descriptivo," Working Papers 2005-08, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
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