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Postponing Retirement: the Political Push of Aging

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Author Info
Galasso, Vincenzo

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Abstract

Conventional economic wisdom suggests because of the aging process, social security systems will have to be retrenched. In particular, retirement age will have to be largely increased. Yet, is this policy measure feasible in OECD countries? Since the answer belongs mainly to the realm of politics, I evaluate the political feasibility of postponing retirement under aging in France, Italy, the UK, and the US. Simulations for the year 2050 steady state demographic, economic and political scenario suggest that retirement age will be postponed in all countries, while the social security contribution rate will rise in all countries, but Italy. The political support for increasing the retirement age stems mainly from the negative income effect induced by aging, which reduces the profitability of the existing social security system, and thus the individuals net social security wealth.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 5777.

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Date of creation: Aug 2006
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5777

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Related research
Keywords: aging; political equilibria; postponing retirement;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Models of Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs

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  1. Francisco M. Lagos & Juan Antonio Lacomba, 2001. "Election On Retirement Age," Working Papers. Serie AD 2001-09, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie). [Downloadable!]
  2. J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Vincenzo Galasso & Paola Profeta, 2006. "Early Retirement and Social Security: A Long Term Perspective," CSEF Working Papers 165, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Conde-Ruiz, J. Ignacio & Galasso, Vincenzo, 2004. "The macroeconomics of early retirement," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(9-10), pages 1849-1869, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Casamatta, Georges & Cremer, Helmuth & Pestieau, Pierre, 2003. "Voting on Pensions with Endogenous Retirement Age," CEPR Discussion Papers 3778, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Tito Boeri & Axel Boersch-Supan & Guido Tabellini, 2002. "Pension Reforms and the Opinions of European Citizens," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 396-401, May. [Downloadable!]
  6. Galasso, Vincenzo & Profeta, Paola, 2007. "How does ageing affect the welfare state?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 554-563, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Conde-Ruiz, José Ignacio & Galasso, Vincenzo, 2000. "Early Retirement," CEPR Discussion Papers 2589, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Vincenzo Galasso, 2008. "The Political Future of Social Security in Aging Societies," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026257246x.
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  9. Jonathan Gruber & David A. Wise, 1999. "Social Security and Retirement around the World," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number grub99-1.
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