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Postponing retirement: the political effect of aging

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  • Galasso, Vincenzo

Abstract

Conventional economic wisdom suggests that because of the aging process, social security systems will have to be retrenched. In particular, retirement age will have to be largely increased. Yet, is this policy measure feasible in OECD countries? Since the answer belongs mainly to the realm of politics, I evaluate the political feasibility of postponing retirement under aging in France, Italy, the UK, and the US. Simulations for the year 2050 steady state demographic, economic and political scenario suggest that retirement age will be postponed in all countries, while the social security contribution rate will rise in all countries, but Italy. The political support for increasing the retirement age stems mainly from the negative income effect induced by aging, which reduces the profitability of the existing social security system, and thus the individuals' net social security wealth.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Public Economics.

Volume (Year): 92 (2008)
Issue (Month): 10-11 (October)
Pages: 2157-2169

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Handle: RePEc:eee:pubeco:v:92:y:2008:i:10-11:p:2157-2169

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505578

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Keywords: Political equilibria Aging Postponing retirement;

References

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  1. J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Vincenzo Galasso, . "Early retirement," Working Papers 2003-03, FEDEA.
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  18. Juan Antonio Lacomba & Francisco Miguel Lagos, 2005. "Political Election on Legal Retirement Age," ThE Papers 05/10, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada..
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ryo Arawatari & Tetsuo Ono, 2010. "Retirement and Social Security: A Political Economy Perspective," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 10-04, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP).
  2. Nuscheler, Robert & Roeder, Kerstin, 2013. "The political economy of long-term care," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 154-173.
  3. Bossi, Luca & Gumus, Gulcin, 2011. "Income Inequality, Mobility, and the Welfare State: A Political Economy Model," IZA Discussion Papers 5909, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  4. Marcin Bielecki & Karolina Goraus & Jan Hagemejer & Joanna Tyrowicz, 2014. "The Sooner The Better - The Welfare Effects of the Retirement Age Increase Under Various Pension Schemes," Working Papers 2014-12, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
  5. Tobias A. Jopp, 2011. "Old Times, Better Times? German Miners’ Knappschaften, Pay-as-you-go Pensions, and Implicit Rates of Return, 1854–1913," Ruhr Economic Papers 0238, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  6. Amélie Lecocq & Marcelin Joanis, 2013. "Au-delà des certitudes : Pouvoir gris, obésité et autres dimensions incertaines de l’impact budgétaire du vieillissement," Cahiers de recherche 13-08, Departement d'Economique de la Faculte d'administration à l'Universite de Sherbrooke.
  7. Karolina Goraus & Krzysztof Makarski & Joanna Tyrowicz, 2014. "Does social security reform reduce gains from increasing the retirement age?," Working Papers 2014-03, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
  8. Ryo Arawatari & Tetsuo Ono, 2011. "Retirement and social security: the roles of self-fulfilling expectations and educational investments," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 353-383, December.
  9. Vincenzo Galasso, 2012. "The Political Feasibility of Postponing Retirement," CESifo DICE Report, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 10(4), pages 27-31, December.

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