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The Evolution of Retirement

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Author Info
Conde-Ruiz, José Ignacio
Galasso, Vincenzo
Profeta, Paola

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Abstract

We provide a long-term perspective on the individual retirement behaviour and on the future of early retirement. In a cross-country sample, we find that total pension spending depends positively on the degree of early retirement and on the share of elderly in the population, which increase the proportion of retirees, but has hardly any effect on the per capita pension benefits. We show that in a Markovian political economic theoretical framework, in which incentives to retire early are embedded, a political equilibrium is characterized by an increasing sequence of social security contribution rates converging to a steady state and early retirement. Comparative statistics suggest that aging and productivity slow-downs lead to higher taxes and more early retirement. However, when income effects are factored in, the model suggests that periods of stagnation – characterized by decreasing labour income – may lead middle-aged individuals to postpone retirement.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 4863.

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Date of creation: Jan 2005
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4863

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Related research
Keywords: lifetime income effect; pensions; politico-economic Markovian equilibrium; tax burden;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Models of Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
  5. Cremer, Helmuth & Pestieau, Pierre, 2002. "The Double Dividend of Postponing Retirement," IDEI Working Papers 144, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse, revised 2003. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Cremer, Helmuth & Lozachmeur, Jean-Marie & Pestieau, Pierre, 2004. "Social security, retirement age and optimal income taxation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(11), pages 2259-2281, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Boskin, Michael J. & Hurd, Michael D., 1978. "The effect of social security on early retirement," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 361-377, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. John Hassler & José V. Rodríguez Mora & Kjetil Storesletten & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2001. "The Survival of the Welfare State," Economics Working Papers 603, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Conde-Ruiz, J. Ignacio & Galasso, Vincenzo, 2004. "The macroeconomics of early retirement," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(9-10), pages 1849-1869, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Courtney Coile & Jonathan Gruber, 2000. "Social Security and Retirement," NBER Working Papers 7830, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. MICHEL, Philippe & PESTIEAU, Pierre & ,, 1999. "Social security and early retirement in an overlapping-generations growth model," CORE Discussion Papers 1999051, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE). [Downloadable!]
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  16. Galasso, Vincenzo & Profeta, Paola, 2002. "The political economy of social security: a survey," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-29, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  27. Juan F. Jimeno, . "Demografía, empleo, salarios y pensiones," Working Papers 2002-04, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Gerhard Glomm & Juergen Jung & Chung Tran, 2006. "Macroeconomic Implications of Early Retirement in the Public Sector: The Case of Brazil," Caepr Working Papers 2006-008, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington. [Downloadable!]
  2. Namkee Ahn, . "Life Satisfaction among Spanish Workers: Importance of Intangible Job Characteristics," Working Papers 2005-17, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  3. José M. Labeaga & Xisco Oliver & Amedeo Spadaro, . "Measuring Changes in Health Capital," Working Papers 2005-15, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  4. Ana Carolina Ortega Masagué, . "La situación laboral de los inmigrantes en España: Un análisis descriptivo," Working Papers 2005-08, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  5. Namkee Ahn & Juan Ramón García & José A. Herce, . "Demographic Uncertainty and Health Care Expenditure in Spain," Working Papers 2005-07, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  6. Juan Antonio Lacomba & Francisco Miguel Lagos, 2005. "Population Aging and Legal Retirement Age," ThE Papers 05/16, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada.. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Corinne Mette, . "Wellbeing and dependency among European elderly: The role of social integration," Working Papers 2005-12, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  8. José M. Labeaga & Ester Martínez Ros, . "Persistence and ability in the innovation decisions," Working Papers 2005-16, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Gilles Le Garrec, 2005. "Systèmes de retraite et vieillissement," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2005-21, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE). [Downloadable!]
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