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Measuring the structural determinants of urban travel demand

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  • Stéphanie Souche

    ()
    (LET - Laboratoire d'économie des transports - CNRS : UMR5593 - Université Lumière - Lyon II - Ecole Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'Etat)

Abstract

To be best prepared for tomorrow's cities we need to forecast urban travel demand. To this end, this study calibrates an urban travel demand model, which uses the principal structural variables that have been identified in the literature. It uses a robust econometric method, which has been little applied in the sphere of transportation. The results show that two variables stand out from the others: the user cost of transport - by private car and public transport - and urban density. It is surprising, but explicable with the available data, that the demand functions estimated for a given country are independent from the group of countries to which it belongs.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by HAL in its series Post-Print with number halshs-00578019.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Publication status: Published, Transport Policy, 2010, 17, 3, pp. 127-134
Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00578019

Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00578019/en/
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Related research

Keywords: Urban travel ; Demand estimation ; Urban density ; Travel cost;

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References

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  1. Antonio García-Ferrer & Marcos Bujosa & Aránzazu de Juan & Pilar Poncela, 2006. "Demand Forecast and Elasticities Estimation of Public Transport," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, London School of Economics and University of Bath, vol. 40(1), pages 45-67, January.
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Cited by:
  1. Felix Creutzig, 2012. "Avoiding Carbon Lock-In: Policy Options for Advancing Structural Change," Working Papers 1, Department of Climate Change Economics, TU Berlin, revised Feb 2012.
  2. Liddle, Brantley, 2013. "Urban Transport Pollution: Revisiting the Environmental Kuznets Curve," MPRA Paper 53632, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Lopes, Carlos Eduardo M. & Moita, Rodrigo Menon S., 2013. "Demanda por Meios de Transporte na Grande São Paulo: Uma Análise de Políticas Públicas," Insper Working Papers wpe_316, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  4. Woods, Lee & Ferguson, Neil S., 2014. "The influence of urban form on car travel following residential relocation: a current and retrospective study in Scottish urban areas," The Journal of Transport and Land Use, Center for Transportation Studies, University of Minnesota, vol. 7(1), pages 95-104.

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