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Un exemple d'estimation de la demande de transport urbain

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  • Stéphanie SOUCHE

Abstract

In order to better understand tomorrow?s cities, we need to work on urban transport demand estimation. In this paper, we aim at defining an urban mobility demand model built on the main structural variables currently identified in the literature. By applying it to three Chinese cities, we obtain different evolution scenarios that underline the dominance of the two following variables : average user cost for a trip (in individual cars or public transport) and urban density. Surprisingly enough, the demand estimation functions appear to be independant from the country group variable, though this may be explained by the limited data available. Nevertheless, this application to the Chinese environnement gives us a first empirical result to work on.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Armand Colin in its journal Revue d’Économie Régionale & Urbaine.

Volume (Year): novembre (2009)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 759-779

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Handle: RePEc:cai:rerarc:reru_094_0759

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Web page: http://www.cairn.info/revue-d-economie-regionale-et-urbaine.htm

Related research

Keywords: China; urban mobility; demand estimation; long term; urban density;

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  1. Richard Arnott & Alex Anas & Kenneth Small, 1997. "Urban Spatial Structure," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 388., Boston College Department of Economics.
  2. Cervero, Robert, 1996. "Mixed land-uses and commuting: Evidence from the American Housing Survey," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 361-377, September.
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  4. Bresson, Georges & Dargay, Joyce & Madre, Jean-Loup & Pirotte, Alain, 2003. "The main determinants of the demand for public transport: a comparative analysis of England and France using shrinkage estimators," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 605-627, August.
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  6. Jean-François BRUN & Jean-Louis COMBES & Mary-Françoise RENARD, 2001. "Are There Spillover Effects Between Coastal and Non-Coastal Regions in China ?," Working Papers 200113, CERDI.
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  9. Bresson, Georges & Dargay, Joyce & Madre, Jean-Loup & Pirotte, Alain, 2004. "Economic and structural determinants of the demand for public transport: an analysis on a panel of French urban areas using shrinkage estimators," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 269-285, May.
  10. Iragaël Joly & Sophie Masson & Romain Petiot, 2006. "Les déterminants de la demande en transports collectifs urbains : comparaison internationale et analyse économétrique," Post-Print halshs-00372167, HAL.
  11. Small, K.A. & Gomez-Ibanez, J.A., 1996. "Urban Transportation," Papers 95-96-4, California Irvine - School of Social Sciences.
  12. Schafer, Andreas & Victor, David G., 2000. "The future mobility of the world population," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 171-205, April.
  13. Alain Bonnafous & Iragaël Joly & Sophie Masson & Romain Petiot, 2003. "Une analyse de la base UITP sur les systèmes de transports urbains de 100 villes du monde," Post-Print halshs-00088778, HAL.
  14. van de Coevering, Paul & Schwanen, Tim, 2006. "Re-evaluating the impact of urban form on travel patternsin Europe and North-America," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 229-239, May.
  15. Joyce M. Dargay & Mark Hanly, 2002. "The Demand for Local Bus Services in England," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, London School of Economics and University of Bath, vol. 36(1), pages 73-91, January.
  16. Kenworthy, Jeffrey R. & Laube, Felix B., 1999. "Patterns of automobile dependence in cities: an international overview of key physical and economic dimensions with some implications for urban policy," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 33(7-8), pages 691-723.
  17. Davidson, William & Donnelly, Robert & Vovsha, Peter & Freedman, Joel & Ruegg, Steve & Hicks, Jim & Castiglione, Joe & Picado, Rosella, 2007. "Synthesis of first practices and operational research approaches in activity-based travel demand modeling," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 41(5), pages 464-488, June.
  18. Gakenheimer, Ralph, 1999. "Urban mobility in the developing world," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 33(7-8), pages 671-689.
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