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The main determinants of the demand for public transport: a comparative analysis of England and France using shrinkage estimators

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  • Bresson, Georges
  • Dargay, Joyce
  • Madre, Jean-Loup
  • Pirotte, Alain

Abstract

This study analyses the impacts of changes in fares, service supply, income and other factors on the demand for public transport on the basis of panels of English counties and French urban areas. The analysis is based on dynamic econometric models, so that both short- and long-run elasticities are estimated. Conventional approaches (i.e. fixed- and random-effect models) rely on the hypothesis that elasticities are the same for all areas. Having shown that this hypothesis is not valid for these data sets, the heterogeneity amongst areas is accounted for using a random-coefficients approach, and Bayesian shrinkage estimators. Estimated elasticities for France and England are compared, by using a common set of variables, similar time period and a common methodology. The results show a considerable variation in elasticities among areas within each country. The major conclusion is that public transport demand is relatively sensitive to fare changes, so that policy measures aimed at fare reduction (subsidisation) can play a substantial role in encouraging the use of public transport, thus reducing the use of private cars.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice.

Volume (Year): 37 (2003)
Issue (Month): 7 (August)
Pages: 605-627

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Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:37:y:2003:i:7:p:605-627

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References

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  1. Baltagi, Badi H. & Bresson, Georges & Pirotte, Alain, 2002. "Comparison of forecast performance for homogeneous, heterogeneous and shrinkage estimators: Some empirical evidence from US electricity and natural-gas consumption," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 375-382, August.
  2. Badi H. Baltagi & Georges Bresson & James M. Griffin & Alain Pirotte, 2003. "Homogeneous, heterogeneous or shrinkage estimators? Some empirical evidence from French regional gasoline consumption," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 795-811, November.
  3. Joyce M. Dargay & Mark Hanly, 2002. "The Demand for Local Bus Services in England," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, London School of Economics and University of Bath, vol. 36(1), pages 73-91, January.
  4. Lawrence R. Klein, 1989. "Developments and Prospects in Macroeconometric Modeling," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 287-304, Oct-Dec.
  5. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
  6. Breusch, T S & Pagan, A R, 1979. "A Simple Test for Heteroscedasticity and Random Coefficient Variation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(5), pages 1287-94, September.
  7. P.A.V.B. Swamy & George S. Tavlas, 1993. "Random coefficient models: theory and applications," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 93-14, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, R., 1992. "Estimating Long-Run Relationships From Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9215, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  9. Maddala, G S, et al, 1997. "Estimation of Short-Run and Long-Run Elasticities of Energy Demand from Panel Data Using Shrinkage Estimators," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 90-100, January.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Stéphanie Souche, 2009. "Un exemple d'estimation de la demande de transport urbain," Post-Print halshs-00579638, HAL.
  2. Souche, Stéphanie, 2010. "Measuring the structural determinants of urban travel demand," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 127-134, May.
  3. Rye, Tom & Scotney, David, 2004. "The factors influencing future concessionary bus patronage in Scotland and their implications for elsewhere," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 133-140, April.
  4. Thøgersen, John, 2006. "Understanding repetitive travel mode choices in a stable context: A panel study approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 40(8), pages 621-638, October.
  5. Filippini Massimo & Deb Kaushik, 2010. "Public bus transport demand elasticities in India," Quaderni della facoltà di Scienze economiche dell'Università di Lugano 1002, USI Università della Svizzera italiana.
  6. Elisabetta Venezia, 2007. "Factors influencing travellers. mode choices: case study of Bari," series 0018, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Metodi Matematici - Università di Bari, revised Oct 2007.
  7. Crôtte, Amado & Noland, Robert B. & Graham, Daniel J., 2009. "Is the Mexico City metro an inferior good?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 40-45, January.
  8. de Grange, Louis & González, Felipe & Muñoz, Juan Carlos & Troncoso, Rodrigo, 2013. "Aggregate estimation of the price elasticity of demand for public transport in integrated fare systems: The case of Transantiago," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 178-185.
  9. Taylor, Brian D & Miller, Douglas & Iseki, Hiroyuki & Fink, Camille, 2008. "Nature and/or nurture? Analyzing the determinants of transit ridership across US urbanized areas," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt5w9045hh, University of California Transportation Center.
  10. Hensher, David A., 2008. "Empirical approaches to combining revealed and stated preference data: Some recent developments with reference to urban mode choice," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 23-29, January.
  11. Elisabetta Venezia, 2009. "Determinants of the demand for urban transport: results of a case study," Working Papers 0909, SIET Società Italiana di Economia dei Trasporti e della Logistica.
  12. Holmgren, Johan, 2007. "Meta-analysis of public transport demand," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 41(10), pages 1021-1035, December.

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