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Demand Forecast and Elasticities Estimation of Public Transport

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  • Antonio García-Ferrer
  • Marcos Bujosa
  • Aránzazu de Juan
  • Pilar Poncela

Abstract

This paper is related to the choice of alternative types of public transport modes and its incidence in the Madrid Metropolitan Area. When planning transport facilities, two conditions are needed: efficient estimation of the users' response to changes in prices and in the characteristics of the services; and reliable predictions of demand. These two conditions are the main objectives of this paper. Given a monthly database, the authors address the first objective using a causal econometric model. As a baseline for forecasting comparisons, they also use new variants of univariate unobserved components models. Forecasting evaluation is based on a variety of accuracy measures to avoid misleading conclusions. © 2006 LSE and the University of Bath

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by London School of Economics and University of Bath in its journal Journal of Transport Economics and Policy.

Volume (Year): 40 (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 45-67

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Handle: RePEc:tpe:jtecpo:v:40:y:2006:i:1:p:45-67

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Web page: http://www.bath.ac.uk/e-journals/jtep

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Cited by:
  1. Gkritza, Konstantina & Karlaftis, Matthew G. & Mannering, Fred L., 2011. "Estimating multimodal transit ridership with a varying fare structure," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 148-160, February.
  2. Souche, Stéphanie, 2010. "Measuring the structural determinants of urban travel demand," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 127-134, May.
  3. Hernández-Díaz, Alfredo G. & García Cobián, Emilio Carlos, 2014. "Elasticidad precio de la demanda y perfil de los usuarios de la parada “Pablo de Olavide" de Metro de Sevilla || Price Elasticity of Demand and Profile of “Pablo de Olavide" Metro Stop's," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 17(1), pages 80-100, June.
  4. Germa Bel & Daniel Albalate, 2009. "What shapes local public transportation in Europe? Economics, Mobility, Institutions, and Geography," RSCAS Working Papers 2009/34, European University Institute.
  5. Anna Matas, 2003. "Demand and revenue implications of an integrated public transport policy. The case of," Working Papers wpdea0304, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.

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