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Induced Travel Demand and Induced Road Investment: A Simultaneous Equation Analysis

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Author Info
Robert Cervero
Mark Hansen
Abstract

This paper presents simultaneous models that predict induced travel demand and induced road investment using an array of instrument variables reflecting political, environmental, and demographic influences. From a panel data set consisting of 22 years of observations for 34 California urban counties, short-run elasticities are estimated. Both the Vehicle- Miles-Travelled model and the Lane-Miles model feature good statistical fits and highly significant parameter estimates. While the research found strong reciprocal relationships between road investment and travel demand, the elasticity estimates generated from simultaneous equation modelling were generally of a comparable magnitude to those of past single-equation studies. © The London School of Economics and the University of Bath 2002

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Article provided by London School of Economics and University of Bath in its journal Journal of Transport Economics and Policy.

Volume (Year): 36 (2002)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 469-490
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Handle: RePEc:tpe:jtecpo:v:36:y:2002:i:3:p:469-490

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Web page: http://www.bath.ac.uk/e-journals/jtep

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  1. Gilles Duranton & Matthew A. Turner, 2009. "The Fundamental Law of Road Congestion: Evidence from US cities," NBER Working Papers 15376, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Feng Xie & David Levinson, 2008. "How Streetcars Shaped Suburbanization: A Granger-Casality Analysis of Land Use and Transit in The Twin Cities," Working Papers 000049, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  3. Robert Noland, 2005. "Transport and Environmental Planning - Research, Rhetoric and Reality," ERSA conference papers ersa05p548, European Regional Science Association. [Downloadable!]
  4. Phil Goodwin & Robert B. Noland, 2003. "Building new roads really does create extra traffic: a response to Prakash et al," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 35(13), pages 1451-1457, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Piyapong Jiwattanakulpaisarn & Robert Noland & Daniel Graham & John Polak, 2006. "Highway Infrastructure Investment and Regional Employment Growth: Dynamic Panel Regression Analysis," ERSA conference papers ersa06p207, European Regional Science Association. [Downloadable!]
  6. Guangqing Chi & Jun Zhu, 2008. "Spatial Regression Models for Demographic Analysis," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 17-42, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. David Levinson, 2007. "Density and Dispersion: The Co-Development of Land use and Rail in London," Working Papers 200801, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group. [Downloadable!]
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