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The Impact of Weather Anomalies on Migration in sub-Saharan Africa

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Author Info

  • Luca MARCHIORI

    ()
    (Central Bank of Luxembourg, Luxembourg, and IRES, Université catholique de Louvain)

  • Jean-François MAYSTADT

    ()
    (International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Washington)

  • Ingmar SCHUMACHER

    ()
    (Central Bank of Luxembourg, Luxembourg, and Department of Economics, École Polytechnique, Paris)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the effects of weather anomalies on migration in sub-Saharan Africa. Theoretically, we show how weather anomalies induce rural-urban migration that subsequently triggers international migration. We distinguish two transmission channels, an amenity and an economic geography channel. Empirically, based on annual, cross-country panel data for sub-Saharan Africa, our results suggest that weather anomalies increased internal and international migration through both channels. We estimate that temperature and rainfall anomalies caused a total displacement of 5 million people in net terms during the period 1960-2000, i.e. a minimum of 130’000 people every year. Further weather anomalies, based on IPCC projections on climate change, could lead to an additional annual displacement of 11 million people by the end of the 21st century.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) in its series Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) with number 2011034.

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Length: 80
Date of creation: 10 Oct 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvir:2011034

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Keywords: International migration; urbanization; rural-urban migration; weather anomalies; sub-Saharan Africa.;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. repec:ipg:wpaper:17 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Henderson, J. Vernon & Storeygard, Adam & Deichmann, Uwe, 2014. "50 years of urbanization in Africa : examining the role of climate change," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6925, The World Bank.
  3. Ingrid Dallmann & Katrin Millock, 2013. "Climate Variability and Internal Migration: A Test on Indian Inter-State Migration," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00825807, HAL.
  4. Jean Gabszewicz & Ornella Tarola & Skerdilajda Zanaj, 2013. "Migration, wages and fiscal competition," CREA Discussion Paper Series 13-19, Center for Research in Economic Analysis, University of Luxembourg.
  5. K.S. Kavi Kumar & BRINDA VISWANATHAN, 2012. "Weather Variability and Agriculture-Implications for Long and Short-term Migration in India," Working papers 220, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
  6. Strobl, Eric & Valfort, Marie-Anne, 2013. "The effect of weather-induced internal migration on local labor markets : evidence from Uganda," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6600, The World Bank.
  7. Arun S. Malik & Stephen C. Smith, 2012. "Adaptation To Climate Change In Low-Income Countries: Lessons From Current Research And Needs From Future Research," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(02), pages 1250005-1-1.
  8. Brinda Viswanathan & K. S. Kavi Kumar, 2013. "Rural Migration, Weather and Agriculture: Evidence from Indian Census Data," Working Papers, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India 2013-080, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
  9. Cai, Ruohong & Feng, Shuaizhang & Pytlikova, Mariola & Oppenheimer, Michael, 2014. "Climate Variability and International Migration: The Importance of the Agricultural Linkage," IZA Discussion Papers 8183, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  10. Ingmar Schumacher, 2014. "The Aggregation Dilemma," Working Papers, Department of Research, Ipag Business School 2014-224, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  11. Michel BEINE & Christopher PARSONS, 2014. "Climatic Factors as Determinants of International Migration," Working Papers P87, FERDI.
  12. Michel BEINE & Christopher PARSONS, 2014. "Climatic Factors as Determinants of International Migration," Working Papers P87, FERDI.
  13. K. S. Kavi Kumar & Brinda Viswanathan, 2013. "Weather and Migration in India: Evidence from NSS Data," Working Papers, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India 2013-079, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
  14. Maystadt, Jean-François & Mueller, Valerie & Sebastian, Ashwini, 2014. "Environmental migration and labor markets in Nepal:," IFPRI discussion papers, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) 1364, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  15. Ingrid Dallmann & Katrin Millock, 2013. "Climate Variability and Internal Migration: A Test on Indian Inter-State Migration," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 13045, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
  16. Eric Stobl & Marie-Anne Valfort, 2014. "The Effect of Weather-Induced Internal Migration on Local Labor Markets Evidence from Uganda," Working Papers, Department of Research, Ipag Business School 2014-460, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  17. repec:gwi:wpaper:2012-08 is not listed on IDEAS
  18. Luca Marchiori & Jean-Francois Maystadt & Ingmar Schumacher, 2013. "Is environmentally-induced income variability a driver of migration? A macroeconomic perspective," Working Papers, Department of Research, Ipag Business School 2013-017, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.

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