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The Impact of Weather Anomalies on Migration in sub-Saharan Africa

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Author Info

  • Luca MARCHIORI

    ()
    (Central Bank of Luxembourg, Luxembourg, and IRES, Université catholique de Louvain)

  • Jean-François MAYSTADT

    ()
    (International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Washington)

  • Ingmar SCHUMACHER

    ()
    (Central Bank of Luxembourg, Luxembourg, and Department of Economics, École Polytechnique, Paris)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the effects of weather anomalies on migration in sub-Saharan Africa. Theoretically, we show how weather anomalies induce rural-urban migration that subsequently triggers international migration. We distinguish two transmission channels, an amenity and an economic geography channel. Empirically, based on annual, cross-country panel data for sub-Saharan Africa, our results suggest that weather anomalies increased internal and international migration through both channels. We estimate that temperature and rainfall anomalies caused a total displacement of 5 million people in net terms during the period 1960-2000, i.e. a minimum of 130’000 people every year. Further weather anomalies, based on IPCC projections on climate change, could lead to an additional annual displacement of 11 million people by the end of the 21st century.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) in its series Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) with number 2011034.

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Length: 80
Date of creation: 10 Oct 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvir:2011034

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Keywords: International migration; urbanization; rural-urban migration; weather anomalies; sub-Saharan Africa.;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Stephen C. Smith & Arun S. Malik, 2012. "Adaptation to Climate Change in Low-Income Countries: Lessons from Current Research and Needs from Future Research," Working Papers 2012-8, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
  2. repec:gwi:wpaper:2012-08 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Ingrid Dallmann & Katrin Millock, 2013. "Climate Variability and Internal Migration: A Test on Indian Inter-State Migration," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00825807, HAL.
  4. K.S. Kavi Kumar & BRINDA VISWANATHAN, 2012. "Weather Variability and Agriculture-Implications for Long and Short-term Migration in India," Working papers 220, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
  5. Michel BEINE & Christopher PARSONS, 2014. "Climatic Factors as Determinants of International Migration," Working Papers P87, FERDI.
  6. repec:ipg:wpaper:17 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Brinda Viswanathan & K. S. Kavi Kumar, 2013. "Rural Migration, Weather and Agriculture: Evidence from Indian Census Data," Working Papers 2013-080, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
  8. Strobl, Eric & Valfort, Marie-Anne, 2013. "The effect of weather-induced internal migration on local labor markets : evidence from Uganda," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6600, The World Bank.
  9. Michel BEINE & Christopher PARSONS, 2014. "Climatic Factors as Determinants of International Migration," Working Papers P87, FERDI.
  10. Jean Gabszewicz & Ornella Tarola & Skerdilajda Zanaj, 2013. "Migration, wages and fiscal competition," CREA Discussion Paper Series 13-19, Center for Research in Economic Analysis, University of Luxembourg.
  11. Ingrid Dallmann & Katrin Millock, 2013. "Climate Variability and Internal Migration: A Test on Indian Inter-State Migration," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 13045, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
  12. K. S. Kavi Kumar & Brinda Viswanathan, 2013. "Weather and Migration in India: Evidence from NSS Data," Working Papers 2013-079, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
  13. Luca Marchiori & Jean-Francois Maystadt & Ingmar Schumacher, 2013. "Is environmentally-induced income variability a driver of migration? A macroeconomic perspective," Working Papers 2013-017, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.

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