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Climatic factors as determinants of International Migration

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  • Michel Beine

    ()
    (University of Luxembourg and IRES, CREAM and CES-Ifo)

  • Christopher Parsons

    (University of Nottingham, UK)

Abstract

In this paper, we examine environmental factors as potential determinants of inter- national migration. We distinguish between unexpected short-run factors, captured by natural disasters, as well as long-run climate change and climate variability captured by deviations and volatilities of temperatures and rainfall from and around their long-run averages. We start from a simple neo-classical model, which is augmented to include environmental factors at origin in the form of amenities. We then test the model us- ing a panel dataset of bilateral migration flows for the period 1960-2000, the time and dyadic dimensions of which additionally allow us to control for numerous time-varying and time invariant factors. Using our primary specification, having accounted for other well documented determinants of migration, we find no direct impact of climatic change on international migration in the medium to long run across our entire sample. These results are robust when further considering migrants returning home. Conditioning our regressions upon origin country characteristics, we find evidence that shortfalls in precip- itation constrain migration to developing countries from those which rely more heavily upon agriculture and spur movements to developing countries from those with fewer groundwater reserves. We further use the rate of urbanization as a proxy for internal migration and find strong evidence that natural disasters beget greater flows of migrants to urban environs.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Center for Research in Economic Analysis, University of Luxembourg in its series CREA Discussion Paper Series with number 12-01.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:luc:wpaper:12-01

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Keywords: International Migration; Climate change; Natural disasters; Income Maximization;

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References

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  1. Barrios, Salvador & Bertinelli, Luisito & Strobl, Eric, 2006. "Climatic change and rural-urban migration: The case of sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 357-371, November.
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  13. Jeffrey Grogger & Gordon H. Hanson, 2008. "Income Maximization and the Selection and Sorting of International Migrants," NBER Working Papers 13821, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  16. Salvador Barrios & Luisito Bertinelli & Eric Strobl, 2010. "Trends in Rainfall and Economic Growth in Africa: A Neglected Cause of the African Growth Tragedy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(2), pages 350-366, May.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Giulietti, Corrado & Wahba, Jackline & Zenou, Yves, 2014. "Strong versus Weak Ties in Migration," IZA Discussion Papers 8089, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  2. Michel Beine & Simone Bertoli & Jesús Fernández-Huertas Moraga, 2014. "A practitioners' guide to gravity models of international migration," Working Papers 2014-03, FEDEA.
  3. Fausto Galli & Giuseppe Russo, 2013. "Immigration Restriction and Long-Run Cultural Assimilation: Theory and Quasi-Experimental Evidence," CSEF Working Papers, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy 349, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
  4. Eva Spring & Volker Grossmann, 2013. "Does Bilateral Trust Affect International Movement of Goods and Labor," CESifo Working Paper Series 4235, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Wodon, Quentin & Burger, Nicholas & Grant, Audra & Liverani, Andrea, 2014. "Climate Change, Migration, and Adaptation in the MENA Region," MPRA Paper 56927, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Ruohong Cai & Shuaizhang Feng & Mariola Pytliková & Michael Oppenheimer, 2014. "Climate Variability and International Migration: The Importance of the Agricultural Linkage," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 1418, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.
  7. Ingrid Dallmann & Katrin Millock, 2013. "Climate Variability and Internal Migration: A Test on Indian Inter-State Migration," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers), HAL halshs-00825807, HAL.
  8. repec:ipg:wpaper:17 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Michel Beine, 2013. "The Network Effect in International Migration," CESifo DICE Report, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 11(1), pages 41-47, 04.
  10. Luca Marchiori & Jean-Francois Maystadt & Ingmar Schumacher, 2013. "Is environmentally-induced income variability a driver of migration? A macroeconomic perspective," Working Papers, Department of Research, Ipag Business School 2013-017, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  11. Bertoli, Simone & Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús, 2012. "Visa Policies, Networks and the Cliff at the Border," IZA Discussion Papers 7094, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  12. Ingrid Dallmann & Katrin Millock, 2013. "Climate Variability and Internal Migration: A Test on Indian Inter-State Migration," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 13045, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
  13. Beine, M. & Bricongne,J-C. & Bourgeon, P., 2013. "Aggregate Fluctuations and International Migration," Working papers, Banque de France 453, Banque de France.
  14. Gröschl, Jasmin, 2012. "Climate Change and the Relocation of Population," Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association 66058, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

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