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Climatic Factors as Determinants of International Migration

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  • Michel Beine
  • Christopher Parsons

Abstract

We examine environmental factors as potential determinants of international migration. We distinguish between unexpected short-run factors, captured by natural disasters, as well as long-run climate change and climate variability. Building on a simple neo-classical model we use a panel dataset of bilateral migration flows for the period 1960-2000, the time and dyadic dimensions of which additionally allow us to control for numerous time-varying and time invariant factors. As a whole, we find little direct impact of climatic change on international migration in the medium to long run across our entire sample. Using the rate of urbanization as a proxy for internal migration we find strong evidence that natural disasters beget greater flows of migrants to urban environs.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2012/wp-cesifo-2012-02/cesifo1_wp3747.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 3747.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3747

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Keywords: international migration; climate change; natural disasters; income maximization;

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References

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  1. Hatton, Timothy J. & Williamson, Jeffrey G., 2003. "What Fundamentals Drive World Migration?," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  2. Michel Beine & Frédéric Docquier & Caglar Özden, 2009. "Diasporas," CESifo Working Paper Series 2607, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. Gibson, John & McKenzie, David, 2009. "The microeconomic determinants of emigration and return migration of the best and brightest : evidence from the Pacific," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4965, The World Bank.
  4. Thierry Mayer & Keith Head & John Ries, 2008. "The Erosion of Colonial Trade Linkages after Independence," Working Papers 2008-27, CEPII research center.
  5. Barrios, Salvador & Bertinelli, Luisito & Strobl, Eric, 2006. "Climatic change and rural-urban migration: The case of sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 357-371, November.
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  7. Davis, James C. & Henderson, J. Vernon, 2003. "Evidence on the political economy of the urbanization process," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 98-125, January.
  8. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2009. "Temperature and Income: Reconciling New Cross-Sectional and Panel Estimates," NBER Working Papers 14680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. McFadden, Daniel L., 1984. "Econometric analysis of qualitative response models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 24, pages 1395-1457 Elsevier.
  10. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2000. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 485, Boston College Department of Economics.
  11. David McKenzie & Hillel Rapoport, 2010. "Self-Selection Patterns in Mexico-U.S. Migration: The Role of Migration Networks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(4), pages 811-821, November.
  12. Frédéric DOCQUIER & Hillel RAPOPORT, 2011. "Globalization, brain drain and development," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2011009, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  13. Kaivan Munshi, 2003. "Networks In The Modern Economy: Mexican Migrants In The U.S. Labor Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 118(2), pages 549-599, May.
  14. Halliday, Timothy, 2006. "Migration, Risk, and Liquidity Constraints in El Salvador," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(4), pages 893-925, July.
  15. Timothy J. Hatton & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2003. "Demographic and Economic Pressure on Emigration out of Africa," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 105(3), pages 465-486, 09.
  16. Naude, Wim, 2008. "Conflict, Disasters, and No Jobs: Reasons for International Migration from Sub-Saharan Africa," Working Paper Series RP2008/85, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  17. Salvador Barrios & Luisito Bertinelli & Eric Strobl, 2010. "Trends in Rainfall and Economic Growth in Africa: A Neglected Cause of the African Growth Tragedy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(2), pages 350-366, May.
  18. Richard Black & Dominic Kniveton & Kerstin Schmidt-Verkerk, 2011. "Migration and climate change: towards an integrated assessment of sensitivity," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 43(2), pages 431-450, February.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Spring, Eva & Grossmann, Volker, 2013. "Does Bilateral Trust Affect International Movement of Goods and Labor?," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79956, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  2. Ingrid Dallmann & Katrin Millock, 2013. "Climate Variability and Internal Migration: A Test on Indian Inter-State Migration," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 13045, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
  3. Fausto Galli & Giuseppe Russo, 2013. "Immigration Restriction and Long-Run Cultural Assimilation: Theory and Quasi-Experimental Evidence," CSEF Working Papers 349, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
  4. Michel Beine & Pauline Bourgeon & Jean-Charles Bricongne, 2013. "Aggregate Fluctuations and International Migration," CESifo Working Paper Series 4379, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Bertoli, Simone & Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús, 2012. "Visa Policies, Networks and the Cliff at the Border," IZA Discussion Papers 7094, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  6. Ingrid Dallmann & Katrin Millock, 2013. "Climate Variability and Internal Migration: A Test on Indian Inter-State Migration," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00825807, HAL.
  7. repec:ipg:wpaper:17 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Luca Marchiori & Jean-Francois Maystadt & Ingmar Schumacher, 2013. "Is environmentally-induced income variability a driver of migration? A macroeconomic perspective," Working Papers 2013-017, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  9. Michel Beine, 2013. "The Network Effect in International Migration," CESifo DICE Report, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 11(1), pages 41-47, 04.
  10. Michel Beine & Simone Bertoli & Jesús Fernández-Huertas Moraga, 2014. "A practitioners' guide to gravity models of international migration," Working Papers 2014-03, FEDEA.
  11. Gröschl, Jasmin, 2012. "Climate Change and the Relocation of Population," Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 66058, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

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