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Temperature and Income: Reconciling New Cross-Sectional and Panel Estimates

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  • Melissa Dell
  • Benjamin F. Jones
  • Benjamin A. Olken

Abstract

This paper presents novel evidence and analysis of the relationship between temperature and income. First, using sub-national data from 12 countries in the Americas, we provide new evidence that the negative cross-country relationship between temperature and income also exists within countries and even within states. Second, we provide a theoretical framework for reconciling the substantial, negative association between temperature and income in the cross-section with the even stronger short-run effects of temperature estimated by panel models. The theoretical framework suggests that half of the negative short-term effects of temperature may be offset in the long run through adaptation.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 14680.

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Date of creation: Jan 2009
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Publication status: published as Dell, Melissa, Benjamin F. Jones, and Benjamin A. Olken. "Temperature and Income: Reconciling New Cross-Sectional and Panel Estimates." American Economic Review 99, 2 (2009): 198-204.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14680

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  1. David Albouy, 2009. "What Are Cities Worth? Land Rents, Local Productivity, and the Capitalization of Amenity Values," NBER Working Papers 14981, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Dani Rodrik & Arvind Subramanian & Francesco Trebbi, 2004. "Institutions Rule: The Primacy of Institutions Over Geography and Integration in Economic Development," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 131-165, 06.
  3. Conley, T. G., 1999. "GMM estimation with cross sectional dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 1-45, September.
  4. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2001. "Reversal of Fortune: Geography and Institutions in the Making of the Modern World Income Distribution," NBER Working Papers 8460, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Francesco Caselli & Gerardo Esquivel & Fernando Lefort, 1997. "Reopening the Convergence Debate: A New Look at Cross-Country Growth Empirics," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile 03, Central Bank of Chile.
  6. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2008. "Climate Change and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century," NBER Working Papers 14132, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Matthew J. Higgins & Daniel Levy & Andrew T. Young, 2006. "Growth and Convergence across the United States: Evidence from County-Level Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 671-681, November.
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