IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/otg/wpaper/1708.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Gone with the Wind: International Migration

Author

Listed:
  • Amelia Aburn

    (Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand)

  • Dennis Wesselbaum

    (Department of Economics, University of Otago, New Zealand)

Abstract

This paper adds to the literature on the determinants of international migration. First, we offer a joint analysis of the driving forces of migration capturing year-to-year variations and long-run effects. Second, we analyze the dynamic response of migration to shocks to its determinants. We start by presenting a theoretical model that allows us to model migration as an augmented gravity equation. We then construct a rich panel data set with 16 destination and 198 origin countries between 1980 and 2014. Most importantly, we find that climate change is a more important driver than income and political freedom together. Our results imply that a large time dimension is key to understand the effects of climate change. We then estimate a panel vectorautoregressive model showing that the dynamic response of migration is very different across shocks to different driving forces. Our findings carry implications for national and international immigration policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Amelia Aburn & Dennis Wesselbaum, 2017. "Gone with the Wind: International Migration," Working Papers 1708, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2017.
    • Handle: RePEc:otg:wpaper:1708
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.otago.ac.nz/economics/otago642786.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2017
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. McFadden, Daniel L., 1984. "Econometric analysis of qualitative response models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 24, pages 1395-1457, Elsevier.
    2. Beine, Michel & Docquier, Frédéric & Özden, Çağlar, 2015. "Dissecting Network Externalities In International Migration," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 81(4), pages 379-408, December.
    3. Corey Lesk & Pedram Rowhani & Navin Ramankutty, 2016. "Influence of extreme weather disasters on global crop production," Nature, Nature, vol. 529(7584), pages 84-87, January.
    4. Ortega, Francesc & Peri, Giovanni, 2012. "The Role of Income and Immigration Policies in Attracting International Migrants," IZA Discussion Papers 6655, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Cattaneo, Cristina & Peri, Giovanni, 2016. "The migration response to increasing temperatures," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 127-146.
    6. Jasmin Gröschl & Thomas Steinwachs, 2017. "Do Natural Hazards Cause International Migration?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 63(4), pages 445-480.
    7. Ekrame Boubtane & Dramane Coulibaly & Christophe Rault, 2013. "Immigration, growth and unemployment: Panel VAR evidence from OECD countries," Post-Print hal-01385948, HAL.
    8. Caglar Ozden & Christopher R. Parsons & Maurice Schiff & Terrie L. Walmsley, 2011. "Where on Earth is Everybody? The Evolution of Global Bilateral Migration 1960-2000," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 25(1), pages 12-56, May.
    9. Anna Mayda, 2010. "International migration: a panel data analysis of the determinants of bilateral flows," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 23(4), pages 1249-1274, September.
    10. Graziella Bertocchi & Chiara Strozzi, 2008. "International migration and the role of institutions," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 81-102, October.
    11. Francesc Ortega & Giovanni Peri, 2009. "The Causes and Effects of International Migrations: Evidence from OECD Countries 1980-2005," NBER Working Papers 14833, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Timothy J. Hatton & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2003. "Demographic and Economic Pressure on Emigration out of Africa," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 105(3), pages 465-486, September.
    13. Michel Beine & Christopher Parsons, 2015. "Climatic Factors as Determinants of International Migration," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 117(2), pages 723-767, April.
    14. A. D. Roy, 1951. "Some Thoughts On The Distribution Of Earnings," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 3(2), pages 135-146.
    15. Christopher D. Carroll & Karen E. Dynan & Spencer D. Krane, 2003. "Unemployment Risk and Precautionary Wealth: Evidence from Households' Balance Sheets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 586-604, August.
    16. George J. Borjas, 2021. "Self-Selection and the Earnings of Immigrants," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Foundational Essays in Immigration Economics, chapter 4, pages 69-91, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    17. Andrew Dillon & Valerie Mueller & Sheu Salau, 2011. "Migratory Responses to Agricultural Risk in Northern Nigeria," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1048-1061.
    18. Andreas Backhaus & Inmaculada Martinez-Zarzoso & Chris Muris, 2015. "Do climate variations explain bilateral migration? A gravity model analysis," IZA Journal of Migration and Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-15, December.
    19. Marchiori, Luca & Maystadt, Jean-François & Schumacher, Ingmar, 2012. "The impact of weather anomalies on migration in sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 355-374.
    20. J. M. C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2006. "The Log of Gravity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 641-658, November.
    21. Rafael Reuveny & Will H. Moore, 2009. "Does Environmental Degradation Influence Migration? Emigration to Developed Countries in the Late 1980s and 1990s," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 90(3), pages 461-479, September.
    22. Santos Silva, J.M.C. & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2011. "Further simulation evidence on the performance of the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 220-222, August.
    23. Helga Kristjánsdóttir, 2012. "Exports From a Remote Developed Region: Analysed by an Inverse Hyperbolic Sine Transformation of the Gravity Model," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(7), pages 953-966, July.
    24. Christina Davenport & Will Moore & Steven Poe, 2003. "Sometimes You Just Have to Leave: Domestic Threats and Forced Migration, 1964-1989," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 27-55, January.
    25. Ilse Ruyssen & Gerdie Everaert & Glenn Rayp, 2014. "Determinants and dynamics of migration to OECD countries in a three-dimensional panel framework," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 175-197, February.
    26. Cai, Ruohong & Feng, Shuaizhang & Oppenheimer, Michael & Pytlikova, Mariola, 2016. "Climate variability and international migration: The importance of the agricultural linkage," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 135-151.
    27. Francesc Ortega & Giovanni Peri, 2009. "The Causes and Effects of International Migrations: Evidence from OECD Countries 1980-2005," NBER Working Papers 14833, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2009. "Temperature and Income: Reconciling New Cross-Sectional and Panel Estimates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 198-204, May.
    29. Ekrame Boubtane & Dramane Coulibaly & Christophe Rault, 2013. "Immigration, Growth and Unemployment: Panel VAR Evidence from OECD Countries," Post-Print halshs-00914412, HAL.
    30. Ortega, Francesc & Peri, Giovanni, 2012. "The Role of Income and Immigration Policies in Attracting International Migrants," IZA Discussion Papers 6655, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    31. Halliday, Timothy, 2006. "Migration, Risk, and Liquidity Constraints in El Salvador," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(4), pages 893-925, July.
    32. Drabo, Alassane & Mbaye, Linguère Mously, 2015. "Natural disasters, migration and education: an empirical analysis in developing countries," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(6), pages 767-796, December.
    33. David Karemera & Victor Iwuagwu Oguledo & Bobby Davis, 2000. "A gravity model analysis of international migration to North America," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(13), pages 1745-1755.
    34. Kaivan Munshi, 2003. "Networks in the Modern Economy: Mexican Migrants in the U. S. Labor Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(2), pages 549-599.
    35. Matthew E. Kahn, 2005. "The Death Toll from Natural Disasters: The Role of Income, Geography, and Institutions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(2), pages 271-284, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Michael Landesmann & Isilda Mara, 2021. "Migration from Africa, the Middle East and European Neighbouring Countries to the EU: An Augmented Gravity Modelling Approach," wiiw Working Papers 198, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    2. Els BEKEART & Ilse RUYSSEN & Sara SALOMONE, 2021. "Domestic and International Migration Intentions in Response to Environmental Stress: A Global Cross-country Analysis," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(3), pages 383-436, September.
    3. Dimitri Defrance & Esther Delesalle & Flore Gubert, 2020. "Is migration drought-induced in Mali? An empirical analysis using panel data on Malian localities over the 1987-2009 period," Working Papers DT/2020/01, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
    4. Arthur Grimes & Dennis Wesselbaum, 2018. "Moving towards happiness," Working Papers 18_07, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    5. Albano Rikani & Jacob Schewe, 2021. "Global bilateral migration projections accounting for diasporas, transit and return flows, and poverty constraints," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 45(4), pages 87-140.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Maya Moore & Dennis Wesselbaum, 2023. "Climatic factors as drivers of migration: a review," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 2955-2975, April.
    2. Thomas Steinwachs, 2019. "Geography Matters: Spatial Dimensions of Trade, Migration and Growth," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 81.
    3. Michel Beine & Christopher Parsons, 2015. "Climatic Factors as Determinants of International Migration," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 117(2), pages 723-767, April.
    4. Luca Marchiori & Jean Francois Maystadt & Ingmar Schumacher, 2013. "Is environmentally," Working Papers 2013-17, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    5. repec:ipg:wpaper:17 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:ipg:wpaper:2013-017 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Cattaneo, Cristina & Peri, Giovanni, 2016. "The migration response to increasing temperatures," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 127-146.
    8. Beine, Michel & Jeusette, Lionel, 2021. "A meta-analysis of the literature on climate change and migration," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(3), pages 293-344, September.
    9. Jasmin Katrin Gröschl, 2013. "Gravity Model Applications and Macroeconomic Perspectives," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 48.
    10. Michel Beine & Christopher R Parsons, 2017. "Climatic Factors as Determinants of International Migration: Redux," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 63(4), pages 386-402.
    11. Wesselbaum Dennis, 2017. "Socioeconomic Driving Forces of International Migration," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 8(2), pages 1-17, December.
    12. Luca Marchiori & Jean-François Maystadt & Ingmar Schumacher, 2017. "Is Environmentally-induced Income Variability a Driver of Human Migration?," Working Papers 2017-010, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    13. Olper, A. & Falco, C. & Galeotti, M., 2018. "Climate Change, Agriculture and Migration: Is there a Causal Relationship ?," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277488, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    14. Chiara Falco & Franco Donzelli & Alessandro Olper, 2018. "Climate Change, Agriculture and Migration: A Survey," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-21, May.
    15. Cristina Cattaneo & Emanuele Massetti, 2019. "Does Harmful Climate Increase Or Decrease Migration? Evidence From Rural Households In Nigeria," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(04), pages 1-36, November.
    16. Chiara Falco & Marzio Galeotti & Alessandro Olper, 2018. "Climate change and Migration: Is Agriculture the Main Channel?," IEFE Working Papers 100, IEFE, Center for Research on Energy and Environmental Economics and Policy, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    17. Cai, Ruohong & Feng, Shuaizhang & Oppenheimer, Michael & Pytlikova, Mariola, 2016. "Climate variability and international migration: The importance of the agricultural linkage," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 135-151.
    18. Barbora Šedová & Lucia Čizmaziová & Athene Cook, 2021. "A meta-analysis of climate migration literature," CEPA Discussion Papers 29, Center for Economic Policy Analysis.
    19. Nina Neubecker & Marcel Smolka & Anne Steinbacher, 2017. "Networks And Selection In International Migration To Spain," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(3), pages 1265-1286, July.
    20. Michael Berlemann & Max Friedrich Steinhardt, 2017. "Climate Change, Natural Disasters, and Migration—a Survey of the Empirical Evidence," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 63(4), pages 353-385.
    21. Ingrid Dallmann & Katrin Millock, 2013. "Climate Variability and Internal Migration: A Test on Indian Inter-State Migration," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 13045r, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, revised Mar 2016.
    22. Théo Benonnier & Katrin Millock & Vis Taraz, 2019. "Climate change, migration, and irrigation," Working Papers halshs-02107098, HAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate Change; Determinants; Dynamic Effects; International Migration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:otg:wpaper:1708. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Janet Bryant (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/etotanz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.