Endogenous fluctuations in the demand for education
AbstractEnrolment rates to higher education reveal quite large variation over time which cannot be explained by productivity shocks alone. We develop a human capital investment model in an overlapping generations framework that features endogenous fluctuations in the demand for education. Agents are heterogeneous in their beliefs about future wage differentials. An evolutionary competition between the heterogeneous beliefs determines the fraction of the newborn generation having a certain belief. Costly access to information on the returns to education induces agents to use potentially destabilizing backward looking prediction rules. Only if previous generations experience regret about their human capital investment decisions, agents will choose a more sophisticated prediction rule that dampens the cycle. Access to information becomes key for stable flows to higher education. Â expectations ; human capital investment ; endogenous fluctuations ; intergenerational spill-overs evolutionary dynamics ; bifurcation analysis -- Einschreibungen an Fachhochschulen und UniversitÃ¤ten weisen starke zyklische Schwankungen auf, die nicht allein durch ProduktivitÃ¤tsschocks erklÃ¤rt werden kÃ¶nnen. Es wird ein Humankapitalmodell mit Ã¼berlappenden Generationen vorgestellt, das die Eigenschaft besitzt, Zyklen in der Nachfrage nach Bildung endogen zu erklÃ¤ren. Im Modell sind die Akteure heterogen in Bezug auf ihre Voraussagen Ã¼ber zukÃ¼nftige Lohndifferentiale. Ein evolutionÃ¤rer Wettbewerb unter den Voraussagemethoden bestimmt den Anteil der Akteure, der ein bestimmtes Prognoseinstrument verwendet. Da der Zugang zu Informationen Ã¼ber zukÃ¼nftige Humankapitalrenditen mit Kosten verbunden ist, weichen die Akteure auf vergangenheitsorientierte Voraussagemethoden aus, die destabilisierend wirken kÃ¶nnen. Nur dann, wenn frÃ¼here Generationen die Art und Weise wie sie prognostizierten bereuen, werden die Akteure kompliziertere, zukunftsgerichtete, Prognoseinstrumente wÃ¤hlen, welche die Zyk
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Springer in its journal Journal of Evolutionary Economics.
Volume (Year): 13 (2003)
Issue (Month): 1 (02)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://link.springer.de/link/service/journals/00191/index.htm
Other versions of this item:
- Michael Neugart & Jan Tuinstra, 2002. "Endogenous fluctuations in the demand for education," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 107, Society for Computational Economics.
- Neugart, Michael & Tuinstra, Jan, 2001. "Endogenous fluctuations in the demand for education," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Labor Market Policy and Employment FS I 01-209, Social Science Research Center Berlin (WZB).
- Neugart, M. & Tuinstra, J., 2001. "Endogenous Fluctuations in the Demand of Education," CeNDEF Working Papers 01-04, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- C60 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - General
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Julian R. Betts, 1996. "What Do Students Know about Wages? Evidence from a Survey of Undergraduates," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 31(1), pages 27-56.
- Orazem, Peter & Tesfatsion, Leigh S., 1997.
"Macrodynamic Implications of Income Transfer Policies for Human Capital Investment and School Effort,"
Staff General Research Papers
1683, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Orazem, Peter & Tesfatsion, Leigh, 1997. " Macrodynamic Implications of Income-Transfer Policies for Human Capital Investment and School Effort," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 305-29, September.
- Brunello, Giorgio & Lucifora, Claudio & Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf, 2001.
"The Wage Expectations of European College Students,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2817, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Giorgio Brunello & Claudio Lucifora & Rudolf Winter-Ebmer, 2001. "The wage expectations of European college students," Economics working papers 2001-08, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
- Brunello, Giorgio & Lucifora, Claudio & Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf, 2001. "The Wage Expectations of European College Students," IZA Discussion Papers 299, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Freeman, Richard B, 1975. "Supply and Salary Adjustments to the Changing Science Manpower Market: Physics, 1948-1973," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(1), pages 27-39, March.
- Bala, Venkatesh & Sorger, Gerhard, 1998. "The evolution of human capital in an interacting agent economy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 85-108, July.
- repec:att:wimass:9621 is not listed on IDEAS
- Borghans, Lex & De Grip, Andries & Heijke, Hans, 1996. "Labor market information and the choice of vocational specialization," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 59-74, February.
- Arifovic, Jasmina, 1994. "Genetic algorithm learning and the cobweb model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 3-28, January.
- Lux, Thomas, 1998. "The socio-economic dynamics of speculative markets: interacting agents, chaos, and the fat tails of return distributions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 143-165, January.
- Siow, Aloysius, 1984. "Occupational Choice under Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 631-45, May.
- Carl Chiarella, 1992. "The Dynamics of Speculative Behaviour," Working Paper Series 13, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
- repec:att:wimass:9530 is not listed on IDEAS
- Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998.
"Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
- Gary S. Becker, 1975. "Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis, with Special Reference to Education, 2nd ed," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number beck75-1.
- Michael Kopel & Herbert Dawid, 1998. "On economic applications of the genetic algorithm: a model of the cobweb type," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 297-315.
- Quinn, Robert & Price, Jamie, 1998. "The demand for medical education: an augmented human capital approach," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 337-347, June.
- William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997.
"A Rational Route to Randomness,"
Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
- de la Croix, David, 1996.
"Economic development and convergence clubs: the role of inherited tastes and human capital,"
Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales)
1996024, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES), revised 00 Oct 1996.
- de la Croix, David, 2001. "Growth dynamics and education spending: The role of inherited tastes and abilities," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(8), pages 1415-1438, August.
- Richard B. Freeman, 1976. "A cobweb model of the supply and starting salary of new engineers," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 29(2), pages 236-248, January.
- Droste, Edward & Hommes, Cars & Tuinstra, Jan, 2002.
"Endogenous fluctuations under evolutionary pressure in Cournot competition,"
Games and Economic Behavior,
Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 232-269, August.
- Droste, E. & Hommes, C.H. & Tuinstra, J., 1999. "Endogenous Fluctuations under Evolutionary Pressure in Cournot Competition," CeNDEF Working Papers 99-04, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Zarkin, Gary A, 1985. "Occupational Choice: An Application to the Market for Public School Teachers," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(2), pages 409-46, May.
- Freeman, Richard B, 1975. "Legal "Cobwebs": A Recursive Model of the Market for New Lawyers," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 57(2), pages 171-79, May.
- Bala, Venkatesh & Sorger, Gerhard, 2001. "A Spatial-Temporal Model of Human Capital Accumulation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 96(1-2), pages 153-179, January.
- Gaunersdorfer, A. & Hommes, C.H. & Wagener, F.O.O., 2000.
"Bifurcation Routes to Volatility Clustering,"
CeNDEF Working Papers
00-04, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Charles T. Clotfelter & Michael Rothschild, 1993. "Introduction to "Studies of Supply and Demand in Higher Education"," NBER Chapters, in: Studies of Supply and Demand in Higher Education, pages 1-10 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Zarkin, Gary A., 1983. "Cobweb versus rational expectations models : Lessons from the market for public school teachers," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 87-95.
- Duchesne, I. & Nonneman, W., 1998. "The Demand for Higher Education in Belgium," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 211-218, April.
- Kai A. Konrad & Dan Kovenock, 2011.
"The Lifeboat Problem,"
the_lifeboat_problem, Max Planck Institute for Tax Law and Public Finance.
- Konrad, Kai A. & Kovenock, Dan, 2011. "The lifeboat problem," Discussion Papers, Research Professorship & Project "The Future of Fiscal Federalism" SP II 2011-106, Social Science Research Center Berlin (WZB).
- Konrad, Kai A. & Kovenock, Dan, 2009. "The Lifeboat Problem," CEPR Discussion Papers 7424, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Konrad, Kai A. & Kovenock, Dan, 2012. "The lifeboat problem," Munich Reprints in Economics 13962, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
- Lines, Marji & Westerhoff, Frank, 2009.
"Effects of inflation expectations on macroeconomic dynamics: Extrapolative versus regressive expectations,"
BERG Working Paper Series
68, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
- Lines Marji & Westerhoff Frank, 2012. "Effects of Inflation Expectations on Macroeconomic Dynamics: Extrapolative Versus Regressive Expectations," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(4), pages 1-30, October.
- Pietro Dindo & Jan Tuinstra, 2010.
"A class of evolutionary models for participation games with negative feedback,"
LEM Papers Series
2010/14, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
- Pietro Dindo & Jan Tuinstra, 2011. "A Class of Evolutionary Models for Participation Games with Negative Feedback," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 37(3), pages 267-300, March.
- Michael Wegener & Frank Westerhoff, 2012. "Evolutionary competition between prediction rules and the emergence of business cycles within Metzler’s inventory model," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 251-273, April.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Guenther Eichhorn) or (Christopher F Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.