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Employment outlooks: Why forecast the labour market and for whom?

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  • Neugart, Michael
  • Schömann, Klaus

Abstract

This essay argues that experience from more than three decades of labour market forecasting shows that forecasting helps greasing the wheels of labour markets. Applied correctly – not in the sense of old fashioned manpower planning models - sufficiently disaggregated employment outlooks support individuals in making better informed decisions on human capital investments, guide policy makers, and alert firms of upcoming skill shortages. That forecasts are necessary at all follows mainly from nowadays widely acknowledged market failure arguments. -- In einigen Ländern der OECD werden seit mehr als drei Jahrzehnten Arbeitsmarktprognosen erstellt. Die Erfahrungen zeigen, dass Prognosen, wenn sie nicht im Stil sogenannter ‚Manpower Planning’ Modelle interpretiert werden, durchaus die Funktionsfähigkeit von Arbeitsmärkten verbessern können. Hinreichend detaillierte Voraussagen zum Bedarf nach Berufsgruppen und Qualifikationen helfen bei individuellen Bildungsentscheidungen, unterstützen Politik, und informieren Firmen über möglichen Fachkräftemangel. Dass Prognosen überhaupt notwendig sind, folgt aus den heutzutage doch weitgehend anerkannten Arbeiten zum Marktversagen.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Social Science Research Center Berlin (WZB) in its series Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Labor Market Policy and Employment with number FS I 02-206.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:wzblpe:fsi02206

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  1. Richard B. Freeman, 1976. "A cobweb model of the supply and starting salary of new engineers," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 29(2), pages 236-248, January.
  2. Borghans, Lex & Green, Francis & Mayhew, Ken, 2001. "Skills Measurement and Economic Analysis: An Introduction," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(3), pages 375-84, July.
  3. John P. Martin, 1998. "What Works Among Active Labour Market Policies: Evidence From OECD Countries' Experiences," OECD Labour Market and Social Policy Occasional Papers 35, OECD Publishing.
  4. Schlicht, Ekkehart, 1978. "Labour Turnover, Wage Structure, and Natural Unemployment," Munich Reprints in Economics 1255, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  5. Borghans, Lex & De Grip, Andries & Heijke, Hans, 1996. "Labor market information and the choice of vocational specialization," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 59-74, February.
  6. Heijke,H., 1996. "Labour Market Information for Educational Investments," ROA Working Paper 002, Maastricht University, Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market (ROA).
  7. Haskel, Jonathan & Martin, Christopher, 1993. "Skill Shortages, Productivity Growth and Wage Inflation in UK Manufacturing," CEPR Discussion Papers 859, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Snow, Arthur & Warren, Ronald S, Jr, 1990. "Human Capital Investment and Labor Supply under Uncertainty," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 31(1), pages 195-206, February.
  9. Giorgio Brunello & Claudio Lucifora & Rudolf Winter-Ebmer, 2001. "The wage expectations of European college students," Economics working papers 2001-08, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
  10. Allen, Jim & van der Velden, Rolf, 2001. "Educational Mismatches versus Skill Mismatches: Effects on Wages, Job Satisfaction, and On-the-Job Search," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(3), pages 434-52, July.
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Cited by:
  1. Kahanec, Martin & Zimmermann, Klaus F. & Kureková, Lucia Mytna & Biavaschi, Costanza, 2013. "Report No. 56: Labour Migration from EaP Countries to the EU – Assessment of Costs and Benefits and Proposals for Better Labour Market Matching," IZA Research Reports 56, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).

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