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Effects of inflation expectations on macroeconomic dynamics: Extrapolative versus regressive expectations

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  • Lines, Marji
  • Westerhoff, Frank

Abstract

In this paper we integrate heterogeneous inflation expectations into a simple monetary model. Guided by empirical evidence we assume that boundedly rational agents, selecting between extrapolative and regressive forecasting rules to predict the future inflation rate, prefer rules that have produced low prediction errors in the past. We show that integrating this behavioral expectation formation process into the monetary model leads to the possibility of endogenous macroeconomic dynamics. For instance, our model replicates certain empirical regularities such as irregular growth cycles or inflation persistence. Moreover, we observe multi-stability via a Chenciner bifurcation. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group in its series BERG Working Paper Series with number 68.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:bamber:68

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Postal: D-96045 Bamberg
Phone: 0951/8632687
Fax: 0951/8632550
Web page: http://www.uni-bamberg.de/vwl/forschung/berg/
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Keywords: Extrapolative and regressive expectations; dynamic predictor selection; macroeconomic dynamics; nonlinearities and chaos; bifurcation analysis;

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References

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  1. Thomas Lux, 2007. "Rational Forecasts or Social Opinion Dynamics? Identification of Interaction Effects in a Business Climate Survey," Working Papers wp07-11, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
  2. Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H., 1996. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Working papers 9530r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  3. Cars Hommes & Joep Sonnemans & Jan Tuinstra & Henk van de Velden, 2004. "Coordination of Expectations in Asset Pricing Experiments," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 119, Netherlands Central Bank.
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  5. Neugart, Michael & Tuinstra, Jan, 2001. "Endogenous fluctuations in the demand for education," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Labor Market Policy and Employment FS I 01-209, Social Science Research Center Berlin (WZB).
  6. Gaunersdorfer, Andrea & Hommes, Cars H. & Wagener, Florian O.O., 2008. "Bifurcation routes to volatility clustering under evolutionary learning," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 27-47, July.
  7. Chiarella,Carl & Flaschel,Peter & Franke,Reiner, 2005. "Foundations for a Disequilibrium Theory of the Business Cycle," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521850254, November.
  8. Boswijk, H.P. & Hommes C.H. & Manzan, S., 2005. "Behavioral Heterogeneity in Stock Prices," CeNDEF Working Papers 05-12, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  9. Heemeijer, P. & Hommes, C.H. & Sonnemans, J. & Tuinstra, J., 2006. "Price Stability and Volatility in Markets with Positive and Negative Expectations Feedback: An Experimental Investigation," CeNDEF Working Papers 06-05, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
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  12. Farebrother, R W, 1973. "Simplified Samuelson Conditions for Cubic and Quartic Equations," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 41(4), pages 396-400, December.
  13. David Goldbaum & Bruce Mizrach, 2004. "Estimating the Intensity of Choice in a Dynamic Mutual Fund Allocation Decision," Departmental Working Papers 200414, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  14. Chavas, Jean-Paul, 2000. "On information and market dynamics: The case of the U.S. beef market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 833-853, June.
  15. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Augusto Marc Rocha Reis & Justin Wolfers, 2004. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm391, Yale School of Management.
  16. Lines, Marji & Westerhoff, Frank, 2010. "Inflation expectations and macroeconomic dynamics: The case of rational versus extrapolative expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 246-257, February.
  17. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Franke, Reiner & Westerhoff, Frank, 2012. "Structural stochastic volatility in asset pricing dynamics: Estimation and model contest," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1193-1211.
  2. Seregi, János & Lelovics, Zsuzsanna & Balogh, László, 2012. "The social welfare function of forests in the light of the theory of public goods," BERG Working Paper Series 87, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
  3. Alfarano, Simone & Milakovic, Mishael, 2010. "Identification of Interaction Effects in Survey Expectations: A Cautionary Note," MPRA Paper 26002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Franke, Reiner & Westerhoff, Frank, 2011. "Why a simple herding model may generate the stylized facts of daily returns: Explanation and estimation," BERG Working Paper Series 83, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
  5. Imami, Drini & Lami, Endrit & Kächelein, Holger, 2011. "Political cycles in income from privatization: The case of Albania," BERG Working Paper Series 77, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
  6. Bexheti, Abdulmenaf, 2010. "Anti-crisis measures in the republic of Macedonia and their effects: Are they sufficient?," BERG Working Paper Series 70, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
  7. Gervai, Pál & Trautmann, László & Wieszt, Attila, 2010. "The mission and culture of the corporation," BERG Working Paper Series 74, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.

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