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Why a simple herding model may generate the stylized facts of daily returns: Explanation and estimation

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  • Franke, Reiner
  • Westerhoff, Frank

Abstract

The paper proposes an elementary agent-based asset pricing model that, invoking the two trader types of fundamentalists and chartists, comprises four features: (i) price determination by excess demand; (ii) a herding mechanism that gives rise to a macroscopic adjustment equation for the market fractions of the two groups; (iii) a rush towards fundamentalism when the price misalignment becomes too large; and (iv) a stronger noise component in the demand per chartist trader than in the demand per fundamentalist trader, which implies a structural stochastic volatility in the returns. Combining analytical and numerical methods, the interaction between these elements is studied in the phase plane of the price and a majority index. In addition, the model is estimated by the method of simulated moments, where the choice of the moments reflects the basic stylized facts of the daily returns of a stock market index. A (parametric) bootstrap procedure serves to set up an econometric test to evaluate the model's goodness-of-fit, which proves to be highly satisfactory. The bootstrap also makes sure that the estimated structural parameters are well identified. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group in its series BERG Working Paper Series with number 83.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:bamber:83

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Keywords: structural stochastic volatility; method of simulated moments; autocorrelation pattern; fat tails; bootstrapped p-values;

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