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The supply of new engineers in Germany

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  • Neugart, Michael

Abstract

We estimate a labor supply model with German data on engineering enrollments and starting salaries. In one model agents have backward looking expectations, in the other rational expectations on future wages. Only the model with backward looking expectations delivers significant coefficients with signs in accordance with out theoretical model. Lagged enrollments as right hand side variables improve the fit of our model. The latter suggests the need for a theory of dynamic labor supply. Supply effects through changing sizes of cohorts do not explain variations in enrollments. In addition, we find that welfare improvements through the provision of information on future wages are considerable. -- Angebots- und Nachfragelücken für qualifizierte Arbeitskräfte sind in den letzten Jahrzehnten in Deutschland, wie auch in anderen Ländern Europas und Nordamerikas immer wieder aufgetreten. Zuletzt entflammte sich eine Diskussion um die Ausgabe von sogenannten ‚Green Cards’, die den von der deutschen Industrie postulierten zusätzlichen Bedarf von mehreren zehntausend Fachkräften in der Informationstechnologie (IT) decken sollten. Ferner zeichnet sich jetzt schon ein Mangel an Ingenieuren für die nächsten Jahre ab. Nicht zuletzt, weil Unternehmen auf der Suche nach IT Kräften zunehmend auf benachbarte Fachgebiete wie die Elektrotechnik, den Maschinenbau und die Mathematik oder Physik ausweichen. Solche Engpässe beim Angebot an qualifizierten Arbeitskräften wie auch „Akademikerschwemmen“ bergen erhebliche volkswirtschaftliche Kosten für beide Seiten des Arbeitsmarkts. Die Unternehmen finden nicht den gewünschten Umfang an qualifizierten Mitarbeitern, den sie zur Entwicklung, der Produktion und dem Verkauf ihrer Produkte benötigen. Gerade wenn es sich dabei um Unternehmen in Schlüsselindustrien, wie etwa der schnell wachsenden Informationstechnologie, handelt, kann dies zu erheblichen Wachstumseinbußen führen.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Social Science Research Center Berlin (WZB) in its series Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Labor Market Policy and Employment with number FS I 00-209.

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Date of creation: 2000
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:wzblpe:fsi00209

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Related research

Keywords: labor supply; engineers; enrolments; occupational choice; naïve expectations; rational expectations;

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References

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  1. Richard B. Freeman, 1976. "A cobweb model of the supply and starting salary of new engineers," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 29(2), pages 236-248, January.
  2. McCallum, Bennett T, 1976. "Rational Expectations and the Natural Rate Hypothesis: Some Consistent Estimates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(1), pages 43-52, January.
  3. Robert H. Topel, 1997. "Factor Proportions and Relative Wages: The Supply-Side Determinants of Wage Inequality," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 55-74, Spring.
  4. Borghans, Lex & De Grip, Andries & Heijke, Hans, 1996. "Labor market information and the choice of vocational specialization," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 59-74, February.
  5. David Card & Thomas Lemieux, 2001. "Dropout and Enrollment Trends in the Postwar Period: What Went Wrong in the 1970s?," NBER Chapters, in: Risky Behavior among Youths: An Economic Analysis, pages 439-482 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Freeman, Richard B, 1975. "Legal "Cobwebs": A Recursive Model of the Market for New Lawyers," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 57(2), pages 171-79, May.
  7. Siow, Aloysius, 1984. "Occupational Choice under Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 631-45, May.
  8. Zarkin, Gary A, 1985. "Occupational Choice: An Application to the Market for Public School Teachers," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(2), pages 409-46, May.
  9. Zarkin, Gary A., 1983. "Cobweb versus rational expectations models : Lessons from the market for public school teachers," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 87-95.
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Cited by:
  1. Talat Mahmood & Klaus Schömann, 2002. "The Determinants of the Migration Decision of IT-graduates from Pakistan: Empirical Evidence for the Design of a German "Green Card"," CIG Working Papers FS IV 02-03a, Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin (WZB), Research Unit: Competition and Innovation (CIG).
  2. Talat Mahmood & Klaus Schömann, 2002. "Die Determinanten der Migrationsentscheidung von IT- Hochschulabsolventen aus Pakistan -Empirische Befunde zur Ausgestaltung der deutschen "Green Card"," CIG Working Papers FS IV 02-03, Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin (WZB), Research Unit: Competition and Innovation (CIG).
  3. Mahmood, Talat & Schömann, Klaus, 2009. "The decision to migrate: A simultaneous decision making approach," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Competition and Innovation SP II 2009-17, Social Science Research Center Berlin (WZB).
  4. Talat Mahmood & Klaus Schömann, 2003. "On the Migration Decision of IT-Graduates: A Two-Level Nested Logit Model," CIG Working Papers SP II 2003-22, Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin (WZB), Research Unit: Competition and Innovation (CIG).
  5. Hilbert, Christoph & Mytzek, Ralf, 2002. "Strategische und methodische Ansatzpunkte zur Ermittlung des regionalen Qualifikationsbedarfs," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Labor Market Policy and Employment FS I 02-211, Social Science Research Center Berlin (WZB).

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