IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/wzblpe/fsi00209.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The supply of new engineers in Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Neugart, Michael

Abstract

We estimate a labor supply model with German data on engineering enrollments and starting salaries. In one model agents have backward looking expectations, in the other rational expectations on future wages. Only the model with backward looking expectations delivers significant coefficients with signs in accordance with out theoretical model. Lagged enrollments as right hand side variables improve the fit of our model. The latter suggests the need for a theory of dynamic labor supply. Supply effects through changing sizes of cohorts do not explain variations in enrollments. In addition, we find that welfare improvements through the provision of information on future wages are considerable.

Suggested Citation

  • Neugart, Michael, 2000. "The supply of new engineers in Germany," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Labor Market Policy and Employment FS I 00-209, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:wzblpe:fsi00209
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/43938/1/322803381.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zarkin, Gary A., 1983. "Cobweb versus rational expectations models : Lessons from the market for public school teachers," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 87-95.
    2. Robert H. Topel, 1997. "Factor Proportions and Relative Wages: The Supply-Side Determinants of Wage Inequality," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 55-74, Spring.
    3. Borghans, Lex & De Grip, Andries & Heijke, Hans, 1996. "Labor market information and the choice of vocational specialization," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 59-74, February.
    4. David Card & Thomas Lemieux, 2001. "Dropout and Enrollment Trends in the Postwar Period: What Went Wrong in the 1970s?," NBER Chapters, in: Risky Behavior among Youths: An Economic Analysis, pages 439-482, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. McCallum, Bennett T, 1976. "Rational Expectations and the Natural Rate Hypothesis: Some Consistent Estimates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(1), pages 43-52, January.
    6. Gary A. Zarkin, 1985. "Occupational Choice: An Application to the Market for Public School Teachers," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 100(2), pages 409-446.
    7. Richard B. Freeman, 1976. "A Cobweb Model of the Supply and Starting Salary of New Engineers," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 29(2), pages 236-248, January.
    8. Freeman, Richard B, 1975. "Legal "Cobwebs": A Recursive Model of the Market for New Lawyers," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 57(2), pages 171-179, May.
    9. Siow, Aloysius, 1984. "Occupational Choice under Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 631-645, May.
    10. van Der Ploeg, Frederick (ed.), 1990. "Advanced Lectures in Quantitative Economics," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 1, number 9780127117034.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Talat Mahmood & Klaus Schömann, 2002. "The Determinants of the Migration Decision of IT-graduates from Pakistan: Empirical Evidence for the Design of a German "Green Card"," CIG Working Papers FS IV 02-03a, Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin (WZB), Research Unit: Competition and Innovation (CIG).
    2. Talat Mahmood & Klaus Schömann, 2002. "Die Determinanten der Migrationsentscheidung von IT- Hochschulabsolventen aus Pakistan -Empirische Befunde zur Ausgestaltung der deutschen "Green Card"," CIG Working Papers FS IV 02-03, Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin (WZB), Research Unit: Competition and Innovation (CIG).
    3. Hilbert, Christoph & Mytzek, Ralf, 2002. "Strategische und methodische Ansatzpunkte zur Ermittlung des regionalen Qualifikationsbedarfs," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Labor Market Policy and Employment FS I 02-211, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
    4. Talat Mahmood & Klaus Schömann, 2003. "On the Migration Decision of IT-Graduates: A Two-Level Nested Logit Model," CIG Working Papers SP II 2003-22, Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin (WZB), Research Unit: Competition and Innovation (CIG).
    5. Mahmood, Talat & Schömann, Klaus, 2009. "The decision to migrate: A simultaneous decision making approach," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Competition and Innovation SP II 2009-17, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michael Neugart & Jan Tuinstra, 2003. "Endogenous fluctuations in the demand for education," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 29-51, February.
    2. Felderer, Bernhard & Drost, André, 2000. "Cyclical Occupational Choice in a Model with Rational Wage Expectations and Perfect Occupational Mobility," Economics Series 81, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    3. Borghans, Lex & De Grip, Andries & Heijke, Hans, 1996. "Labor market information and the choice of vocational specialization," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 59-74, February.
    4. repec:eee:labchp:v:1:y:1986:i:c:p:357-386 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Gunderson, Morley & Krashinsky, Harry, 2009. "Do Education Decisions Respond to Returns by Field of Study?," CLSSRN working papers clsrn_admin-2009-62, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 28 Nov 2009.
    6. Júlia Varga, 2002. "Earnings Expectations and Higher-education Enrolment Decisions in Hungary," Society and Economy, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 24(1), pages 121-152, July.
    7. Xia, Xiaoyu, 2016. "Forming wage expectations through learning: Evidence from college major choices," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 132(PA), pages 176-196.
    8. Hommes, Cars & Lux, Thomas, 2013. "Individual Expectations And Aggregate Behavior In Learning-To-Forecast Experiments," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(2), pages 373-401, March.
    9. Heemeijer, Peter & Hommes, Cars & Sonnemans, Joep & Tuinstra, Jan, 2009. "Price stability and volatility in markets with positive and negative expectations feedback: An experimental investigation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1052-1072, May.
    10. Lex Borghans & Bart Golsteyn, 2007. "Skill transferability, regret and mobility," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(13), pages 1663-1677.
    11. Ahu Gemici & Matthew Wiswall, 2014. "Evolution Of Gender Differences In Post‐Secondary Human Capital Investments: College Majors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 55(1), pages 23-56, February.
    12. Jean-Luc De Meulemeester, 1994. "Une évaluation empirique de la rationalité des étudiants et étudiantes belges (1954-1987)," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 116(5), pages 137-153.
    13. Konrad, Kai A. & Kovenock, Dan, 2012. "The lifeboat problem," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 552-559.
    14. Lex Borghans & Bart Golsteyn, 2007. "Skill transferability, regret and mobility," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(13), pages 1663-1677.
    15. Magali Jaoul, 2004. "Enseignement supérieur et marchés du travail. Analyse économétrique de la théorie de l’engorgement," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 166(5), pages 39-57.
    16. Varga, Júlia, 2001. "A kereseti várakozások hatása az érettségizők továbbtanulási döntésére [The effects of earning expectations on the decisions of school leavers about further study]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 615-639.
    17. Changhui Kang, 2004. "University Prestige and Choice of Major Field: Evidence from South Korea," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 544, Econometric Society.
    18. Neugart, Michael & Schömann, Klaus, 2002. "Employment outlooks: Why forecast the labour market and for whom?," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Labor Market Policy and Employment FS I 02-206, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
    19. Russell Weinstein, 2022. "Local Labor Markets and Human Capital Investments," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 57(5), pages 1498-1525.
    20. Patnaik, Arpita & Venator, Joanna & Wiswall, Matthew & Zafar, Basit, 2022. "The role of heterogeneous risk preferences, discount rates, and earnings expectations in college major choice," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(1), pages 98-122.
    21. Arpita Patnaik & Matthew J. Wiswall & Basit Zafar, 2020. "College Majors," NBER Working Papers 27645, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    labor supply; engineers; enrolments; occupational choice; naïve expectations; rational expectations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:wzblpe:fsi00209. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/wzbbbde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.