Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

The supply of new engineers in Germany


Author Info

  • Neugart, Michael


We estimate a labor supply model with German data on engineering enrollments and starting salaries. In one model agents have backward looking expectations, in the other rational expectations on future wages. Only the model with backward looking expectations delivers significant coefficients with signs in accordance with out theoretical model. Lagged enrollments as right hand side variables improve the fit of our model. The latter suggests the need for a theory of dynamic labor supply. Supply effects through changing sizes of cohorts do not explain variations in enrollments. In addition, we find that welfare improvements through the provision of information on future wages are considerable. -- Angebots- und Nachfragelücken für qualifizierte Arbeitskräfte sind in den letzten Jahrzehnten in Deutschland, wie auch in anderen Ländern Europas und Nordamerikas immer wieder aufgetreten. Zuletzt entflammte sich eine Diskussion um die Ausgabe von sogenannten ‚Green Cards’, die den von der deutschen Industrie postulierten zusätzlichen Bedarf von mehreren zehntausend Fachkräften in der Informationstechnologie (IT) decken sollten. Ferner zeichnet sich jetzt schon ein Mangel an Ingenieuren für die nächsten Jahre ab. Nicht zuletzt, weil Unternehmen auf der Suche nach IT Kräften zunehmend auf benachbarte Fachgebiete wie die Elektrotechnik, den Maschinenbau und die Mathematik oder Physik ausweichen. Solche Engpässe beim Angebot an qualifizierten Arbeitskräften wie auch „Akademikerschwemmen“ bergen erhebliche volkswirtschaftliche Kosten für beide Seiten des Arbeitsmarkts. Die Unternehmen finden nicht den gewünschten Umfang an qualifizierten Mitarbeitern, den sie zur Entwicklung, der Produktion und dem Verkauf ihrer Produkte benötigen. Gerade wenn es sich dabei um Unternehmen in Schlüsselindustrien, wie etwa der schnell wachsenden Informationstechnologie, handelt, kann dies zu erheblichen Wachstumseinbußen führen.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL:
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Social Science Research Center Berlin (WZB) in its series Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Labor Market Policy and Employment with number FS I 00-209.

as in new window
Date of creation: 2000
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:zbw:wzblpe:fsi00209

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Reichpietschufer 50, 10785 Berlin, Germany
Phone: ++49 - 30 - 25491 - 0
Fax: ++49 - 30 - 25491 - 684
Web page:
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: labor supply; engineers; enrolments; occupational choice; naïve expectations; rational expectations;

Find related papers by JEL classification:


References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Richard B. Freeman, 1976. "A cobweb model of the supply and starting salary of new engineers," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 29(2), pages 236-248, January.
  2. McCallum, Bennett T, 1976. "Rational Expectations and the Natural Rate Hypothesis: Some Consistent Estimates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(1), pages 43-52, January.
  3. Robert H. Topel, 1997. "Factor Proportions and Relative Wages: The Supply-Side Determinants of Wage Inequality," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 55-74, Spring.
  4. Borghans, Lex & De Grip, Andries & Heijke, Hans, 1996. "Labor market information and the choice of vocational specialization," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 59-74, February.
  5. David Card & Thomas Lemieux, 2001. "Dropout and Enrollment Trends in the Postwar Period: What Went Wrong in the 1970s?," NBER Chapters, in: Risky Behavior among Youths: An Economic Analysis, pages 439-482 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Freeman, Richard B, 1975. "Legal "Cobwebs": A Recursive Model of the Market for New Lawyers," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 57(2), pages 171-79, May.
  7. Siow, Aloysius, 1984. "Occupational Choice under Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 631-45, May.
  8. Zarkin, Gary A, 1985. "Occupational Choice: An Application to the Market for Public School Teachers," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(2), pages 409-46, May.
  9. Zarkin, Gary A., 1983. "Cobweb versus rational expectations models : Lessons from the market for public school teachers," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 87-95.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Talat Mahmood & Klaus Schömann, 2002. "The Determinants of the Migration Decision of IT-graduates from Pakistan: Empirical Evidence for the Design of a German "Green Card"," CIG Working Papers FS IV 02-03a, Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin (WZB), Research Unit: Competition and Innovation (CIG).
  2. Talat Mahmood & Klaus Schömann, 2002. "Die Determinanten der Migrationsentscheidung von IT- Hochschulabsolventen aus Pakistan -Empirische Befunde zur Ausgestaltung der deutschen "Green Card"," CIG Working Papers FS IV 02-03, Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin (WZB), Research Unit: Competition and Innovation (CIG).
  3. Mahmood, Talat & Schömann, Klaus, 2009. "The decision to migrate: A simultaneous decision making approach," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Competition and Innovation SP II 2009-17, Social Science Research Center Berlin (WZB).
  4. Talat Mahmood & Klaus Schömann, 2003. "On the Migration Decision of IT-Graduates: A Two-Level Nested Logit Model," CIG Working Papers SP II 2003-22, Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin (WZB), Research Unit: Competition and Innovation (CIG).
  5. Hilbert, Christoph & Mytzek, Ralf, 2002. "Strategische und methodische Ansatzpunkte zur Ermittlung des regionalen Qualifikationsbedarfs," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Labor Market Policy and Employment FS I 02-211, Social Science Research Center Berlin (WZB).


This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.


Access and download statistics


When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:wzblpe:fsi00209. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.