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Dropout and Enrollment Trends in the Post-War Period: What Went Wrong in the 1970s?

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Author Info
David Card
Thomas Lemieux

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Abstract

Over most of the 20th century successive generations of U.S. children had higher enrollment rates and rising levels of completed education. This trend reversed with the baby boom cohorts who attended school in the 1970s, and only resumed in the mid-1980s. Even today, the college entry rate of male high school seniors is not much higher than it was in 1968. In this paper, we use a variety of data sources to address the question What went wrong in the 1970s?' We focus on both demand-side factors and on a particular supply-side variable the relative size of the cohort currently in school. We find that tuition costs and local unemployment rates affect schooling decisions, although neither variable explains recent trends in enrollment or completed education. We also find that larger cohorts have lower schooling attainment, and that aggregate enrollment rates are correlated with changes in the earnings gains associated with a college degree. For women, our results suggest that the slowdown in education in the 1970s was a temporary response to large cohort sizes and low returns to education. For men, however, the decline in enrollment rates in the 1970s and slow recovery in the 1980s point to a permanent shift in the inter-cohort trend in educational attainment that will affect U.S. economic growth and trends in inequality for many decades to come.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 7658.

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Date of creation: Apr 2000
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7658

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I21 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Analysis of Education

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Topel, Robert H, 1997. "Factor Proportions and Relative Wages: The Supply-Side Determinants of Wage Inequality," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 55-74, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Stephen V. Cameron & James J. Heckman, 1991. "The Nonequivalence of High School Equivalents," NBER Working Papers 3804, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Willis, Robert J., 1987. "Wage determinants: A survey and reinterpretation of human capital earnings functions," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & R. Layard (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 10, pages 525-602 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. David Card & Thomas Lemieux, 2000. "Can Falling Supply Explain the Rising Return to College for Younger Men? A Cohort-Based Analysis," NBER Working Papers 7655, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. David Card & Thomas Lemieux, 1997. "Adapting to Circumstances: The Evolution of Work, School, and Living Arrangements Among North American Youth," NBER Working Papers 6142, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Finis Welch, 1979. "Effects of Cohort Size on Earnings: The Baby Boom Babies' Financial Bust," UCLA Economics Working Papers 146, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Card, David & Krueger, Alan B, 1992. "Does School Quality Matter? Returns to Education and the Characteristics of Public Schools in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(1), pages 1-40, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Solon, Gary, 1999. "Intergenerational mobility in the labor market," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 29, pages 1761-1800 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Gustman, Alan L & Steinmeier, Thomas L, 1981. "The Impact of Wages and Unemployment on Youth Enrollment and Labor Supply," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 63(4), pages 553-60, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Welch, Finis, 1979. "Effects of Cohort Size on Earnings: The Baby Boom Babies' Financial Bust," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages S65-97, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Card, David, 1999. "The causal effect of education on earnings," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 30, pages 1801-1863 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Robert Shimer, 1999. "The Impact of Young Workers on the Aggregate Labor Market," NBER Working Papers 7306, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ayako Kondo, 2008. "Female Labor Market Conditions and Family Formation," Discussion Papers 0809-08, Columbia University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Hui He, 2009. "What Drives the Skill Premium: Technological Change or Demographic Variation?," Working Papers 200911, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. James J. Heckman, 2008. "Schools, Skills, and Synapses," NBER Working Papers 14064, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Christian Belzil & Marco Leonardi, 2007. "Risk Aversion and Schooling Decisions," Post-Print halshs-00174507_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Joshua Angrist & Victor Lavy, 2003. "Achievement Awards for High School Matriculation: Evidence from Randomized Trials," Natural Field Experiments 0003, The Field Experiments Website. [Downloadable!]
  6. David Card, 2000. "Estimating the Return to Schooling: Progress on Some Persistent Econometric Problems," NBER Working Papers 7769, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. David Deming & Susan Dynarski, 2008. "The Lengthening of Childhood," NBER Working Papers 14124, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Iwan Barankay & Ben Lockwood, 2006. "Decentralization and the Productive Efficiency of Government: Evidence from Swiss Cantons," IZA Discussion Papers 2477, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Piero Cipollone & Alfonso Rosolia, 2006. "Social Interactions in High School: Lessons from an Earthquake," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 596, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Ulrike Malmendier & Stefan Nagel, 2009. "Depression Babies: Do Macroeconomic Experiences Affect Risk-Taking?," NBER Working Papers 14813, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Donata Bessey & Uschi Backes-Gellner, 2008. "Dropping out and revising educational decisions: Evidence from vocational education," Economics of Education Working Paper Series 0040, University of Zurich, Institute for Strategy and Business Economics (ISU). [Downloadable!]
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