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A new interpretation of the exchange rate-yield differential nexus

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Author Info
Jerry Coakley (Department of Accounting, Finance and Management, University of Essex, UK)
Ana-Maria Fuertes (Faculty of Finance, Sir John Cass Business School, UK)
Andrew Wood (Department of Accounting, Finance and Management, University of Essex, UK)

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Abstract

Empirical studies have had difficulty in establishing the long-run relationship between real exchange rates and real yield differentials predicted by sticky price exchange rate models. We revisit this issue in a nonstationary panel regression framework. This facilitates estimation of a long-run parameter even when the underlying relation-ship is subject to permanent shocks or the variables do not cointegrate. The slope coefficient estimate from a sample of 23 industrialized countries 1973M1-1998M12 has the correct sign and is statistically significant for both short and long-term yields. These results support fundamentals-based models of exchange rate behaviour while permitting real factors to play a role. Moreover, they indicate that capital markets integration is more advanced than hitherto believed. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/ijfe.230
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Publisher Info
Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal International Journal of Finance & Economics.

Volume (Year): 9 (2004)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 201-218
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Handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:9:y:2004:i:3:p:201-218

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  1. Edison, Hali J & Melick, William R, 1999. "Alternative Approaches to Real Exchange Rates and Real Interest Rates: Three Up and Three Down," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(2), pages 93-111, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. O'Connell, Paul G. J., 1998. "The overvaluation of purchasing power parity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 1-19, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Nakagawa, Hironobu, 2002. "Real exchange rates and real interest differentials: implications of nonlinear adjustment in real exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 629-649, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2000. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Working Papers 7777, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Eiji Fujii & Menzie D. Chinn, 2000. "Fin de Siecle Real Interest Parity," NBER Working Papers 7880, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Philip R. Lane, 2001. "Long-Term Capital Movements," IMF Working Papers 01/107, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Peter Phillips & Hyungsik Moon, 2000. "Nonstationary panel data analysis: an overview of some recent developments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 263-286. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Hoffmann, M. & MacDonald, R., 2001. "A Real Differential View of Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0103, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  10. Jerry Coakley, Ana-Maria Fuertes, Ron Smith, 2001. "Small sample properties of panel time-series estimators with I(1) errors," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 191, Society for Computational Economics.
  11. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(3), pages 495-514, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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