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Do expectations matter? The Great Moderation revisited

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Marta Bañbura & Danilo Leiva-León & Jan-Oliver Menz, 2021. "Do inflation expectations improve model-based inflation Forecasts?," Working Papers 2138, Banco de España.
  2. Luca Benati & Paolo Surico, 2009. "VAR Analysis and the Great Moderation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1636-1652, September.
  3. Plakandaras, Vasilios & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "UK macroeconomic volatility: Historical evidence over seven centuries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 767-789.
  4. Luca Gambetti & Julián Messina, 2018. "Evolving Wage Cyclicality in Latin America," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 32(3), pages 709-726.
  5. Vasilios Plakandaras & Rangan Gupta & Constantinos Katrakilidis & Mark E. Wohar, 2020. "Time-varying role of macroeconomic shocks on house prices in the US and UK: evidence from over 150 years of data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(5), pages 2249-2285, May.
  6. Pavon-Prado, David, 2019. "Have we been measuring monetary policy correctly? Analysing the Federal Reserve’s policies over the last century," IFCS - Working Papers in Economic History.WH 28342, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Instituto Figuerola.
  7. Antonio Noriega & Carlos Capistrán & Manuel Ramos-Francia, 2013. "On the dynamics of inflation persistence around the world," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 1243-1265, June.
  8. Pär Stockhammar & Pär Österholm, 2018. "Do inflation expectations granger cause inflation?," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 35(2), pages 403-431, August.
  9. Fabio Canova, 2007. "How much structure in empirical models?," Economics Working Papers 1054, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  10. Luca Fanelli & Marco M. Sorge, 2015. "Indeterminacy, Misspecification and Forecastability: Good Luck in Bad Policy?," CSEF Working Papers 402, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
  11. Andrew C. Chang & Phillip Li, 2015. "Is Economics Research Replicable? Sixty Published Papers from Thirteen Journals Say \"Usually Not\"," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-83, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  12. Fuest, Angela & Schmidt, Torsten, 2017. "Inflation expectation uncertainty, inflation and the output gap," Ruhr Economic Papers 673, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
  13. Cars Hommes & Kostas Mavromatis & Tolga Özden & Mei Zhu, 2023. "Behavioral learning equilibria in New Keynesian models," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(4), pages 1401-1445, November.
  14. Maritta Paloviita & Matti Viren, 2013. "How do individual forecasters change their views? An analysis with micro panel data," FindEcon Chapters: Forecasting Financial Markets and Economic Decision-Making, in: Władysław Milo & Piotr Wdowiński (ed.), Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica nr 295/2013 - Financial Markets and Macroprudential Policy, edition 1, volume 127, chapter 5, pages 79-92, University of Lodz.
  15. Benjamin Wong, 2015. "Do Inflation Expectations Propagate the Inflationary Impact of Real Oil Price Shocks?: Evidence from the Michigan Survey," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(8), pages 1673-1689, December.
  16. George Kapetanios & Massimiliano Marcellino & Fabrizio Venditti, 2019. "Large time‐varying parameter VARs: A nonparametric approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(7), pages 1027-1049, November.
  17. Elton Beqiraj & Valeria Patella & Massimiliano Tancioni, 2019. "Regime-switches in the Rollover of Sovereign Risk," Working Papers in Public Economics 191, University of Rome La Sapienza, Department of Economics and Law.
  18. Canova, Fabio & Sala, Luca, 2009. "Back to square one: Identification issues in DSGE models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 431-449, May.
  19. Arturo Ormeño & Krisztina Molnár, 2015. "Using Survey Data of Inflation Expectations in the Estimation of Learning and Rational Expectations Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(4), pages 673-699, June.
  20. Canova, Fabio & Paustian, Matthias, 2011. "Business cycle measurement with some theory," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(4), pages 345-361.
  21. Di Bartolomeo Giovanni & Hughes Hallett Andrew & Acocella Nicola, 2013. "When Can Policy Makers Anchor Expectations? Dynamic controllability and the limits to time inconsistency," wp.comunite 0104, Department of Communication, University of Teramo.
  22. Plakandaras, Vasilios & Gupta, Rangan & Balcilar, Mehmet & Ji, Qiang, 2022. "Evolving United States stock market volatility: The role of conventional and unconventional monetary policies," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
  23. Canova, Fabio & Ferroni, Filippo, 2012. "The dynamics of US inflation: Can monetary policy explain the changes?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 167(1), pages 47-60.
  24. Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2018. "Policy uncertainty and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(3), pages 319-331, April.
  25. Olivier J. Blanchard & Marianna Riggi, 2013. "WHY ARE THE 2000s SO DIFFERENT FROM THE 1970s? A STRUCTURAL INTERPRETATION OF CHANGES IN THE MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS OF OIL PRICES," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11(5), pages 1032-1052, October.
  26. Boivin, Jean & Kiley, Michael T. & Mishkin, Frederic S., 2010. "How Has the Monetary Transmission Mechanism Evolved Over Time?," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 8, pages 369-422, Elsevier.
  27. Del Negro, Marco & Eusepi, Stefano, 2011. "Fitting observed inflation expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2105-2131.
  28. Erdemlioglu, Deniz M & Xiao, Wei, 2008. "Indeterminate Equilibria in New Keynesian DSGE Model: An Application to the US Great Moderation," MPRA Paper 10322, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  29. Diegel, Max & Nautz, Dieter, 2021. "Long-term inflation expectations and the transmission of monetary policy shocks: Evidence from a SVAR analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
  30. Aguilar, Pablo & Vázquez, Jesús, 2021. "An Estimated Dsge Model With Learning Based On Term Structure Information," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(7), pages 1635-1665, October.
  31. Clark, Todd E. & Davig, Troy, 2011. "Decomposing the declining volatility of long-term inflation expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 981-999, July.
  32. Todd E. Clark & Troy Davig, 2008. "An empirical assessment of the relationships among inflation and short- and long-term expectations," Research Working Paper RWP 08-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  33. Awijen, Haithem & Ben Zaied, Younes & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Sensoy, Ahmet, 2020. "Endogenous Financial Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Volatility: Evidence from the United States," MPRA Paper 101276, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2020.
  34. Fanelli, Luca & Sorge, Marco M., 2017. "Indeterminate forecast accuracy under indeterminacy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 57-70.
  35. Plakandaras, Vasilios & Gupta, Rangan & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2019. "Point and density forecasts of oil returns: The role of geopolitical risks," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 580-587.
  36. Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & Pedro Mendes Garcia, 2021. "Does the central banker type affect inflation expectations?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(1), pages 93-102.
  37. Rafiq, Sohrab, 2013. "Sources of time-varying trade balance and real exchange rate dynamics in East Asia," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 117-141.
  38. Andrew C. Chang & Phillip Li, 2018. "Measurement Error In Macroeconomic Data And Economics Research: Data Revisions, Gross Domestic Product, And Gross Domestic Income," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(3), pages 1846-1869, July.
  39. Maritta Paloviita and Matti Viren, 2012. "Analyzing the relationships between survey forecasts for different variables and countries," Discussion Papers 76, Aboa Centre for Economics.
  40. Baumann, Ursel & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Westermann, Thomas & Riggi, Marianna & Bobeica, Elena & Meyler, Aidan & Böninghausen, Benjamin & Fritzer, Friedrich & Trezzi, Riccardo & Jonckheere, Jana & , 2021. "Inflation expectations and their role in Eurosystem forecasting," Occasional Paper Series 264, European Central Bank.
  41. Marco Bottone & Alfonso Rosolia, 2019. "Monetary policy, firms’ inflation expectations and prices: causal evidence from firm-level data," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1218, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  42. Kiss, Gábor Dávid & Kovács, György & Varga, János Zoltán, 2016. "Várakozások és a monetáris politika - különös tekintettel a magyarországi gyakorlatra [Expectations and monetary policy, with special attention to practice in Hungary]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 1192-1216.
  43. Castelnuovo, Efrem, 2013. "Monetary policy shocks and financial conditions: A Monte Carlo experiment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 282-303.
  44. Diegel, Max & Nautz, Dieter, 2020. "The role of long-term inflation expectations for the transmission of monetary policy shocks," Discussion Papers 2020/19, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
  45. Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & Acocella, Nicola, 2012. "A general theory of controllability and expectations anchoring for small-open economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 397-411.
  46. D. Lederman & W.F. Maloney & J. Messina, 2011. "The Fall of Wage Flexibility," World Bank Publications - Reports 23575, The World Bank Group.
  47. Fuest, Angela & Schmidt, Torsten, 2020. "Inflation expectation uncertainty in a New Keynesian framework," Ruhr Economic Papers 867, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
  48. Patella, Valeria & Tancioni, Massimiliano, 2021. "Confidence Swings and Sovereign Risk Dynamics," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 195-206.
  49. Zaghini, Andrea & Bencivelli, Lorenzo, 2012. "Financial innovation, macroeconomic volatility and the great moderation," MPRA Paper 41263, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  50. Caputo, Rodrigo & Pedersen, Michael, 2020. "The changing nature of the real exchange rate: The role of central bank preferences," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 445-464.
  51. Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & Pedro Mendes Garcia & José Valentim Machado Vicente, 2021. "Rationality and anchoring of inflation expectations: An assessment from survey‐based and market‐based measures," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(6), pages 1027-1053, September.
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