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Incorporating Economic Policy Uncertainty in US Equity Premium Models: A Nonlinear Predictability Analysis

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Cited by:

  1. Assaf, Ata & Charif, Husni & Mokni, Khaled, 2021. "Dynamic connectedness between uncertainty and energy markets: Do investor sentiments matter?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
  2. Bulent Diclehan Cadirci & Mustafa Tekdere, 2022. "The Effect of Economic Uncertainty on the Tax Wedge: The Case of Selected OECD Countries," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 72(72-2), pages 787-822, December.
  3. Yonghong Jiang & Gengyu Tian & Yiqi Wu & Bin Mo, 2022. "Impacts of geopolitical risks and economic policy uncertainty on Chinese tourism‐listed company stock," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 320-333, January.
  4. Nonejad, Nima, 2021. "Predicting equity premium using news-based economic policy uncertainty: Not all uncertainty changes are equally important," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
  5. Ming Fang & Chiu-Lan Chang, 2022. "Nexus between fiscal imbalances, green fiscal spending, and green economic growth: empirical findings from E-7 economies," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 2423-2443, November.
  6. Li, Dakai & Zhang, Fan & Li, Xuezhi, 2022. "Can U.S. trade policy uncertainty help in predicting stock market excess return?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
  7. Mehmet Balcilar & Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2018. "Differences of opinion and stock market volatility: evidence from a nonparametric causality-in-quantiles approach," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 42(2), pages 339-351, April.
  8. Balcilar, Mehmet & Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan & Roubaud, David, 2017. "Can volume predict Bitcoin returns and volatility? A quantiles-based approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 74-81.
  9. Matthew W. Clance & Giray Gozgor & Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau, 2019. "The Relationship between Economic Uncertainty and Corporate Tax Rates," Working Papers 201945, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  10. Shabir, Mohsin & Jiang, Ping & Hashmi, Shujahat Haider & Bakhsh, Satar, 2022. "Non-linear nexus between economic policy uncertainty and bank lending," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 657-679.
  11. Arshian Sharif & Subhan Ullah & Muhammad Shahbaz & Mantu Kumar Mahalik, 2021. "Sustainable tourism development and globalization: Recent insights from the United States," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(5), pages 957-973, September.
  12. Christou, Christina & Gupta, Rangan, 2020. "Forecasting equity premium in a panel of OECD countries: The role of economic policy uncertainty," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 243-248.
  13. Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2021. "A time–frequency comovement and causality relationship between Bitcoin hashrate and energy commodity markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
  14. Mehmet Balcilar & Elie Bouri & Rangan Gupta & David Roubaud, 2016. "Can Volume Predict Bitcoin Returns and Volatility? A Nonparametric Causality-in-Quantiles Approach," Working Papers 201662, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  15. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2022. "Oil-Price Uncertainty and International Stock Returns: Dissecting Quantile-Based Predictability and Spillover Effects Using More than a Century of Data," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-26, November.
  16. Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Mark E. Wohar, 2017. "The Role of Current Account Balance in Forecasting the US Equity Premium: Evidence From a Quantile Predictive Regression Approach," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 47-59, February.
  17. Chen, Wen-Yi & Chen, Mei-Ping, 2022. "Twitter’s daily happiness sentiment, economic policy uncertainty, and stock index fluctuations," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
  18. Salokhiddin Avazkhodjaev & Jaloliddin Usmonov & M ria Bohdalov & Wee-Yeap Lau, 2022. "The Causal Nexus between Renewable Energy, CO2 Emissions, and Economic Growth: New Evidence from CIS Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(6), pages 248-260, November.
  19. Lee, Chi-Chuan & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Li, Yong-Yi, 2021. "Oil price shocks, geopolitical risks, and green bond market dynamics," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
  20. Gupta, Rangan & Risse, Marian & Volkman, David A. & Wohar, Mark E., 2019. "The role of term spread and pattern changes in predicting stock returns and volatility of the United Kingdom: Evidence from a nonparametric causality-in-quantiles test using over 250 years of data," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 391-405.
  21. Mishra, Shekhar & Sharif, Arshian & Khuntia, Sashikanta & Meo, Muhammad Saeed & Rehman Khan, Syed Abdul, 2019. "Does oil prices impede Islamic stock indices? Fresh insights from wavelet-based quantile-on-quantile approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 292-304.
  22. Balcilar, Mehmet & Bonato, Matteo & Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan, 2018. "Geopolitical risks and stock market dynamics of the BRICS," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 295-306.
  23. Gupta, Rangan & Mwamba, John W. Muteba & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "The role of partisan conflict in forecasting the U.S. equity premium: A nonparametric approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 131-136.
  24. Chuliá, Helena & Gupta, Rangan & Uribe, Jorge M. & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "Impact of US uncertainties on emerging and mature markets: Evidence from a quantile-vector autoregressive approach," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 178-191.
  25. Giray Gozgor & Ender Demir, 2017. "Excess stock returns, oil shocks, and policy uncertainty in the U.S," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(2), pages 741-755.
  26. Salokhiddin Avazkhodjaev & Farkhod Mukhamedov & Jaloliddin Usmonov, 2022. "Do Energy and Gold Markets Interact with Islamic Stocks? Evidence from the Asia-Pacific Markets," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(3), pages 197-208, May.
  27. Lee, Chi-Chuan & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2020. "Insurance activity, real output, and geopolitical risk: Fresh evidence from BRICS," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 207-215.
  28. Mehmet Balcilar & Esin Cakan & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "Does U.S. News Impact Asian Emerging Markets? Evidence from Nonparametric Causality-in-Quantiles Test," Working Papers 201631, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  29. Nonejad, Nima, 2022. "Predicting equity premium out-of-sample by conditioning on newspaper-based uncertainty measures: A comparative study," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
  30. Mohammad Arashi & Mohammad Mahdi Rounaghi, 2022. "Analysis of market efficiency and fractal feature of NASDAQ stock exchange: Time series modeling and forecasting of stock index using ARMA-GARCH model," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 1-12, December.
  31. Mudassar Hasan & Muhammad Abubakr Naeem & Muhammad Arif & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Safwan Mohd Nor, 2020. "Geopolitical Risk and Tourism Stocks of Emerging Economies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-21, November.
  32. Rehman, Mobeen Ur, 2018. "Do oil shocks predict economic policy uncertainty?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 498(C), pages 123-136.
  33. Gu, Rongbao & Liu, Shengnan, 2022. "Nonlinear analysis of economic policy uncertainty: Based on the data in China, the US and the global," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 593(C).
  34. Kang, Wensheng & de Gracia, Fernando Perez & Ratti, Ronald A., 2019. "The asymmetric response of gasoline prices to oil price shocks and policy uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 66-79.
  35. Jun Wen & Samia Khalid & Hamid Mahmood & Xiuyun Yang, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and growth nexus in Pakistan: a new evidence using NARDL model," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1701-1715, August.
  36. Badshah, Ihsan & Demirer, Riza & Suleman, Muhammad Tahir, 2019. "The effect of economic policy uncertainty on stock-commodity correlations and its implications on optimal hedging," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
  37. Basher, Syed Abul & Haug, Alfred A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2019. "The impact of economic policy uncertainty and commodity prices on CARB country stock market volatility," MPRA Paper 96577, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  38. Godil, Danish Iqbal & Sarwat, Salman & Sharif, Arshian & Jermsittiparsert, Kittisak, 2020. "How oil prices, gold prices, uncertainty and risk impact Islamic and conventional stocks? Empirical evidence from QARDL technique," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
  39. Song, Lu & Tian, Gengyu & Jiang, Yonghong, 2022. "Connectedness of commodity, exchange rate and categorical economic policy uncertainties — Evidence from China," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
  40. Zhao, Linhai & Chau, Ka Yin & Tran, Trung Kien & Sadiq, Muhammad & Xuyen, Nguyen Thi My & Phan, Thi Thu Hien, 2022. "Enhancing green economic recovery through green bonds financing and energy efficiency investments," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 488-501.
  41. Alqahtani, Abdullah & Klein, Tony, 2021. "Oil price changes, uncertainty, and geopolitical risks: On the resilience of GCC countries to global tensions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
  42. Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Sensoy, Ahmet & Eraslan, Veysel & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2021. "Sensitivity of US equity returns to economic policy uncertainty and investor sentiments," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
  43. Golab, Anna & Bannigidadmath, Deepa & Pham, Thach Ngoc & Thuraisamy, Kannan, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and industry return predictability – Evidence from the UK," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 433-447.
  44. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Kim, Won Joong & Kyei, Clement, 2019. "The role of economic policy uncertainties in predicting stock returns and their volatility for Hong Kong, Malaysia and South Korea," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 150-163.
  45. Christou, Christina & Cunado, Juncal & Gupta, Rangan & Hassapis, Christis, 2017. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock market returns in PacificRim countries: Evidence based on a Bayesian panel VAR model," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 92-102.
  46. Michele Costola & Michael Donadelli & Luca Gerotto & Ivan Gufler, 2022. "Global risks, the macroeconomy, and asset prices," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(5), pages 2357-2388, November.
  47. Gupta, Rangan & Huber, Florian & Piribauer, Philipp, 2020. "Predicting international equity returns: Evidence from time-varying parameter vector autoregressive models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
  48. Dang, Dandan & Fang, Hongsheng & He, Minyuan, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty, tax quotas and corporate tax burden: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 1-1.
  49. Han, Liyan & Liu, Yang & Yin, Libo, 2019. "Uncertainty and currency performance: A quantile-on-quantile approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 702-729.
  50. Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Sharma, Susan Sunila & Tran, Vuong Thao, 2018. "Can economic policy uncertainty predict stock returns? Global evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 134-150.
  51. Ruzhao Gao & Yancai Zhao & Bing Zhang, 2021. "The spillover effects of economic policy uncertainty on the oil, gold, and stock markets: Evidence from China," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2134-2141, April.
  52. Suleman, Tahir & Gupta, Rangan & Balcilar, Mehmet, 2017. "Does country risks predict stock returns and volatility? Evidence from a nonparametric approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1173-1195.
  53. Nicholas Apergis & Tasawar Hayat & Tareq Saeed, 2021. "Cyclicality of commodity markets with respect to the U.S. economic policy uncertainty based on granger causality in quantiles," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 50(1), February.
  54. Pavitra Dhamija, 2020. "Economic Development and South Africa: 25 Years Analysis (1994 to 2019)," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 88(3), pages 298-322, September.
  55. Sun, Xiaolei & Yao, Xiaoyang & Wang, Jun, 2017. "Dynamic interaction between economic policy uncertainty and financial stress: A multi-scale correlation framework," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 214-221.
  56. Zeng, Qing & Lu, Xinjie & Dong, Dayong & Li, Pan, 2022. "Category-specific EPU indices, macroeconomic variables and stock market return predictability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
  57. Helseth, Marius Aleksander Emblem & Krakstad, Svein Olav & Molnár, Peter & Norlin, Karl-Martin, 2020. "Can policy and financial risk predict stock markets?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 701-719.
  58. Tsai, I-Chun, 2018. "Flash crash and policy uncertainty," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 248-260.
  59. Huang, Wei-Ling & Lin, Wen-Yuan & Ning, Shao-Lin, 2020. "The effect of economic policy uncertainty on China’s housing market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
  60. Batabyal, Sourav & Killins, Robert, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock market returns: Evidence from Canada," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
  61. Yu, Honghai & Fang, Libing & Du, Donglei & Yan, Panpan, 2017. "How EPU drives long-term industry beta," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 249-258.
  62. Nicholas Apergis & Matteo Bonato & Rangan Gupta & Clement Kyei, 2016. "Does Geopolitical Risks Predict Stock Returns and Volatility of Leading Defense Companies? Evidence from a Nonparametric Approach," Working Papers 201671, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  63. Sinha, Avik & Mishra, Shekhar & Sharif, Arshian & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2021. "Does Green Financing help to improve the Environmental & Social Responsibility? Designing SDG framework through Advanced Quantile modelling," MPRA Paper 108150, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2021.
  64. Mehmet Balcilar & Deven Bathia & Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta, 2017. "Credit Ratings and Predictability of Stock Returns and Volatility of the BRICS and the PIIGS: Evidence from a Nonparametric Causality-in-Quantiles Approach," Working Papers 201719, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  65. Salisu, Afees A. & Shaik, Muneer, 2022. "Islamic Stock indices and COVID-19 pandemic," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 282-293.
  66. Kais Tissaoui & Taha Zaghdoudi & Abdelaziz Hakimi & Ousama Ben-Salha & Lamia Ben Amor, 2022. "Does Uncertainty Forecast Crude Oil Volatility before and during the COVID-19 Outbreak? Fresh Evidence Using Machine Learning Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-20, August.
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