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Oil price increases and the predictability of equity premium

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Nonejad, Nima, 2021. "Predicting equity premium using news-based economic policy uncertainty: Not all uncertainty changes are equally important," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
  2. Farhat Iqbal & Dimitrios Koutmos & Eman A. Ahmed & Lulwah M. Al-Essa, 2024. "A Novel Hybrid Deep Learning Method for Accurate Exchange Rate Prediction," Risks, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-20, August.
  3. Su, Yuandong & Lu, Xinjie & Zeng, Qing & Huang, Dengshi, 2022. "Good air quality and stock market returns," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
  4. Ma, Feng & Wang, Ruoxin & Lu, Xinjie & Wahab, M.I.M., 2021. "A comprehensive look at stock return predictability by oil prices using economic constraint approaches," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
  5. Qingxiang Han & Mengxi He & Yaojie Zhang & Muhammad Umar, 2023. "Default return spread: A powerful predictor of crude oil price returns," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(7), pages 1786-1804, November.
  6. Yaojie Zhang & Mengxi He & Zhikai Zhang, 2024. "Forecasting stock returns with industry volatility concentration," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(7), pages 2705-2730, November.
  7. Ma, Feng & Lu, Fei & Tao, Ying, 2022. "Geopolitical risk and excess stock returns predictability: New evidence from a century of data," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
  8. Yi, Yongsheng & Ma, Feng & Zhang, Yaojie & Huang, Dengshi, 2019. "Forecasting stock returns with cycle-decomposed predictors," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 250-261.
  9. Nonejad, Nima, 2021. "Predicting equity premium by conditioning on macroeconomic variables: A prediction selection strategy using the price of crude oil," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
  10. Chen, Juan & Ma, Feng & Qiu, Xuemei & Li, Tao, 2023. "The role of categorical EPU indices in predicting stock-market returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 365-378.
  11. Takuro Hidaka & Yuta Saito & Jun Sakamoto, 2021. "Historical Relationships and International Market Return Predictability: The Role of the UK in the Former British Colonies, Protectorates and Mandates," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 21-08-Rev., Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics, revised Oct 2023.
  12. Wen, Danyan & Liu, Li & Wang, Yudong & Zhang, Yaojie, 2022. "Forecasting crude oil market returns: Enhanced moving average technical indicators," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
  13. Xiao, Jihong & Wang, Yudong & Wen, Danyan, 2023. "The predictive effect of risk aversion on oil returns under different market conditions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
  14. Zhang, Yaojie & Wahab, M.I.M. & Wang, Yudong, 2023. "Forecasting crude oil market volatility using variable selection and common factor," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 486-502.
  15. Lv, Wendai & Qi, Jipeng, 2022. "Stock market return predictability: A combination forecast perspective," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
  16. Mensi, Walid & Hamed Al-Yahyaee, Khamis & Vinh Vo, Xuan & Hoon Kang, Sang, 2021. "Dynamic spillover and connectedness between oil futures and European bonds," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
  17. Zhikai Zhang & Yaojie Zhang & Yudong Wang & Qunwei Wang, 2024. "The predictability of carbon futures volatility: New evidence from the spillovers of fossil energy futures returns," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(4), pages 557-584, April.
  18. Un, Kuok Sin & Ausloos, Marcel, 2022. "Equity premium prediction: Taking into account the role of long, even asymmetric, swings in stock market behavior," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 608(P1).
  19. Hong, Yanran & Li, Pan & Wang, Lu & Zhang, Yaojie, 2023. "New evidence of extreme risk transmission between financial stress and international crude oil markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
  20. Wu, Shue-Jen, 2023. "The role of the past long-run oil price changes in stock market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 274-291.
  21. Mengxi He & Yudong Wang & Yaojie Zhang, 2023. "The predictability of iron ore futures prices: A product‐material lead–lag effect," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(9), pages 1289-1304, September.
  22. Mustanen, Dmitri & Maaitah, Ahmad & Mishra, Tapas & Parhi, Mamata, 2022. "The power of investors’ optimism and pessimism in oil market forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
  23. Ma, Feng & Lu, Xinjie & Liu, Jia & Huang, Dengshi, 2022. "Macroeconomic attention and stock market return predictability," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
  24. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Li, Zhao-Chen, 2021. "Forecasting the stock returns of Chinese oil companies: Can investor attention help?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 531-555.
  25. Nima Nonejad, 2021. "Should crude oil price volatility receive more attention than the price of crude oil? An empirical investigation via a large‐scale out‐of‐sample forecast evaluation of US macroeconomic data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(5), pages 769-791, August.
  26. Mengxi He & Yaojie Zhang & Yudong Wang & Danyan Wen, 2024. "Modelling and forecasting crude oil price volatility with climate policy uncertainty," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-10, December.
  27. Zhang, Yaojie & He, Mengxi & Wen, Danyan & Wang, Yudong, 2023. "Forecasting crude oil price returns: Can nonlinearity help?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(PB).
  28. Li, Zhao-Chen & Xie, Chi & Wang, Gang-Jin & Zhu, You & Long, Jian-You & Zhou, Yang, 2023. "Forecasting stock market volatility under parameter and model uncertainty," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
  29. Yilin Ma & Yudong Wang & Weizhong Wang, 2026. "Forecasting crude oil prices: a novel model combined multisource predictors, factor screening, and forecast combination," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 12(1), pages 1-37, December.
  30. Ma, Tian & Li, Ganghui & Zhang, Huajing, 2024. "Stock return predictability using economic narrative: Evidence from energy sectors," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
  31. Nonejad, Nima, 2021. "Predicting equity premium using dynamic model averaging. Does the state–space representation matter?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
  32. Yuan, Ying & Qu, Yong & Qiao, Sijia, 2025. "Equity premium prediction: A constraint-based predictor decomposition approach," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
  33. Dai, Zhifeng & Zhu, Huan, 2021. "Indicator selection and stock return predictability," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
  34. Zhang, Yaojie & Tian, Linxing & Zhang, Zhikai, 2025. "Petroleum volatility spillover index and stock return predictability," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
  35. Ting Yao & Yue‐Jun Zhang, 2024. "The impact of air pollution on crude oil futures market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(6), pages 1055-1068, June.
  36. Ma, Yong & Li, Shuaibing & Zhou, Mingtao, 2024. "Forecasting crude oil prices: Does global financial uncertainty matter?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(PC).
  37. Dai, Zhifeng & Dong, Xiaodi & Kang, Jie & Hong, Lianying, 2020. "Forecasting stock market returns: New technical indicators and two-step economic constraint method," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
  38. Li, Kaixin & Zhang, Zhikai & Wang, Yudong & Zhang, Yaojie, 2024. "Forecasting crude oil returns with oil-related industry ESG indices," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
  39. Zhang, Yaojie & He, Mengxi & Wang, Yudong & Liang, Chao, 2023. "Global economic policy uncertainty aligned: An informative predictor for crude oil market volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1318-1332.
  40. Li, Yan & Huo, Jiale & Xu, Yongan & Liang, Chao, 2023. "Belief-based momentum indicator and stock market return predictability," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
  41. Afees A. Salisu & Rangan Gupta, 2023. "Oil Price Returns Skewness and Forecastability of International Stock Returns Over One Century of Data," Working Papers 202339, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  42. Qiu, Rui & Liu, Jing & Li, Yan, 2023. "Long-term adjusted volatility: Powerful capability in forecasting stock market returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
  43. Liu, Li & Tan, Siming & Wang, Yudong, 2020. "Can commodity prices forecast exchange rates?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
  44. Zhifeng Dai & Jie Kang & Hua Yin, 2023. "Forecasting equity risk premium: A new method based on wavelet de‐noising," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 4331-4352, October.
  45. Xiao, Jihong & Wang, Yudong, 2022. "Good oil volatility, bad oil volatility, and stock return predictability," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 953-966.
  46. Dai, Zhifeng & Zhou, Huiting & Kang, Jie & Wen, Fenghua, 2021. "The skewness of oil price returns and equity premium predictability," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
  47. Nonejad, Nima, 2022. "Equity premium prediction using the price of crude oil: Uncovering the nonlinear predictive impact," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
  48. Liu, Jing & He, Qiubei & Li, Yan & Huynh, Luu Duc Toan & Liang, Chao, 2023. "The change in stock-selection risk and stock market returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
  49. Dai, Zhifeng & Zhu, Huan & Kang, Jie, 2021. "New technical indicators and stock returns predictability," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 127-142.
  50. Nonejad, Nima, 2021. "Predicting the return on the spot price of crude oil out-of-sample by conditioning on news-based uncertainty measures: Some new empirical results," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
  51. Li, Tao & Ma, Feng & Zhang, Xuehua & Zhang, Yaojie, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and the Chinese stock market volatility: Novel evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 24-33.
  52. Dai, Zhifeng & Zhang, Xiaotong & Liang, Chao, 2024. "Efficient predictability of oil price: The role of VIX-based panic index shadow line difference," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
  53. Wang, Yilei & Cheng, Sheng & Cao, Yan, 2022. "How does economic policy uncertainty respond to the global oil price fluctuations? Evidence from BRICS countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
  54. Jiang, Yuexiang & Fu, Tao & Long, Huaigang & Zaremba, Adam & Zhou, Wenyu, 2022. "Real estate climate index and aggregate stock returns: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
  55. Li, Chenchen & Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng, 2022. "Oil implied volatility and expected stock returns along the worldwide supply chain," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
  56. Wang, Lu & Ma, Feng & Niu, Tianjiao & Liang, Chao, 2021. "The importance of extreme shock: Examining the effect of investor sentiment on the crude oil futures market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
  57. Mengxi He & Xianfeng Hao & Yaojie Zhang & Fanyi Meng, 2021. "Forecasting stock return volatility using a robust regression model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(8), pages 1463-1478, December.
  58. Zhang, Yaojie & Zhao, Xinyi & Zhang, Zhikai, 2025. "Financial regulatory policy uncertainty: An informative predictor for financial industry stock returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(PB).
  59. He, Mengxi & Zhang, Yaojie, 2022. "Climate policy uncertainty and the stock return predictability of the oil industry," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
  60. Takuro Hidaka & Jun Sakamoto, 2021. "Predictability of market returns for the UK's former colonies, protectorates, and mandates," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 21-08, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
  61. Wen, Danyan & He, Mengxi & Wang, Yudong & Zhang, Yaojie, 2024. "Forecasting crude oil market volatility: A comprehensive look at uncertainty variables," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 1022-1041.
  62. Xiao, Jihong & Wang, Yudong, 2022. "Macroeconomic uncertainty, speculation, and energy futures returns: Evidence from a quantile regression," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
  63. Lu, Xinjie & Ma, Feng & Wang, Tianyang & Wen, Fenghua, 2023. "International stock market volatility: A data-rich environment based on oil shocks," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 214(C), pages 184-215.
  64. Ma, Feng & Cao, Jiawei, 2023. "The Chinese equity premium predictability: Evidence from a long historical data," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
  65. Yaojie Zhang & Yudong Wang & Feng Ma & Yu Wei, 2022. "To jump or not to jump: momentum of jumps in crude oil price volatility prediction," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-31, December.
  66. Chen, Tzu-Ying & Tsai, An-Mei & Tzeng, Larry Y., 2022. "Revisiting almost marginal conditional stochastic dominance," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 260-269.
  67. Chenchen Li & Chongfeng Wu & Chunyang Zhou, 2021. "Forecasting equity returns: The role of commodity futures along the supply chain," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(1), pages 46-71, January.
  68. Wen, Danyan & He, Mengxi & Wang, Yudong & Zhang, Yaojie, 2025. "Forecasting gasoline prices using oil prices: New evidence based on the rocket and feather hypothesis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 335(C).
  69. Li, Zhao-Chen & Xie, Chi & Zeng, Zhi-Jian & Wang, Gang-Jin & Zhang, Ting, 2023. "Forecasting global stock market volatilities in an uncertain world," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
  70. Ellington, Michael & Stamatogiannis, Michalis P. & Zheng, Yawen, 2022. "A study of cross-industry return predictability in the Chinese stock market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
  71. Li, Yan & Liang, Chao & Huynh, Toan Luu Duc, 2022. "Forecasting US stock market returns by the aggressive stock-selection opportunity," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
  72. Lee, Wei-Ming & Wu, Shue-Jen, 2025. "Do oil price changes contain useful predictive information about the U.S. bear stock market?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
  73. Huang, Yisu & Xu, Weiju & Huang, Dengshi & Zhao, Chenchen, 2023. "Chinese crude oil futures volatility and sustainability: An uncertainty indices perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
  74. Meng, Fanyi & Liu, Li, 2019. "Analyzing the economic sources of oil price volatility: An out-of-sample perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 476-486.
  75. Alexandridis, Antonios K. & Apergis, Iraklis & Panopoulou, Ekaterini & Voukelatos, Nikolaos, 2023. "Equity premium prediction: The role of information from the options market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
  76. Zhang, Zhikai & Wang, Yudong & Li, Bin, 2023. "Asymmetric spillover of geopolitical risk and oil price volatility: A global perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
  77. Zhang, Zhikai & He, Mengxi & Zhang, Yaojie & Wang, Yudong, 2022. "Geopolitical risk trends and crude oil price predictability," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
  78. Yaojie Zhang & Feng Ma & Chao Liang & Yi Zhang, 2021. "Good variance, bad variance, and stock return predictability," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 4410-4423, July.
  79. Nonejad, Nima, 2020. "Crude oil price volatility and equity return predictability: A comparative out-of-sample study," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
  80. Shen Gao & Shijie Wang & Yuanzhi Wang & Qunzi Zhang, 2025. "ChatGPT and Commodity Return," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 45(3), pages 161-175, March.
  81. Bai, Fan & Zhang, Yaqi & Chen, Zhonglu & Li, Yan, 2023. "The volatility of daily tug-of-war intensity and stock market returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PA).
  82. Zeng, Qing & Lu, Xinjie & Dong, Dayong & Li, Pan, 2022. "Category-specific EPU indices, macroeconomic variables and stock market return predictability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
  83. Wang, Yudong & Geng, Qianjie & Meng, Fanyi, 2019. "Futures hedging in crude oil markets: A comparison between minimum-variance and minimum-risk frameworks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 815-826.
  84. Zhang, Yunhan & Ji, Qiang & Zhang, Dayong & Guo, Kun, 2024. "How does Shanghai crude oil futures affect top global oil companies: The role of multi-uncertainties," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
  85. Zhang, Yaojie & Ma, Feng & Wei, Yu, 2019. "Out-of-sample prediction of the oil futures market volatility: A comparison of new and traditional combination approaches," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1109-1120.
  86. He, Mengxi & Shen, Lihua & Zhang, Yaojie & Zhang, Yi, 2023. "Predicting cryptocurrency returns for real-world investments: A daily updated and accessible predictor," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PA).
  87. Chen, Wang & Ma, Feng & Wei, Yu & Liu, Jing, 2020. "Forecasting oil price volatility using high-frequency data: New evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 1-12.
  88. Ma, Yan-Ran & Zhang, Dayong & Ji, Qiang & Pan, Jiaofeng, 2019. "Spillovers between oil and stock returns in the US energy sector: Does idiosyncratic information matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 536-544.
  89. Xu Gong & Keqin Guan & Qiyang Chen, 2022. "The role of textual analysis in oil futures price forecasting based on machine learning approach," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(10), pages 1987-2017, October.
  90. Song, Yixuan & He, Mengxi & Wang, Yudong & Zhang, Yaojie, 2022. "Forecasting crude oil market volatility: A newspaper-based predictor regarding petroleum market volatility," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
  91. Zhifeng Dai & Haoyang Zhu & Xiaoming Chang & Fenghua Wen, 2025. "Forecasting stock returns: the role of VIX-based upper and lower shadow of Japanese candlestick," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 11(1), pages 1-35, December.
  92. Wang, Jiqian & Chen, Chuang & Dai, Xingyu, 2025. "News topic attention and crude oil price predictability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 108(PA).
  93. He, Mengxi & Zhang, Zhikai & Zhang, Yaojie, 2024. "Forecasting crude oil prices with global ocean temperatures," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 311(C).
  94. Bouteska, Ahmed & Hajek, Petr & Fisher, Ben & Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul, 2023. "Nonlinearity in forecasting energy commodity prices: Evidence from a focused time-delayed neural network," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
  95. Dai, Zhifeng & Zhu, Huan, 2020. "Stock return predictability from a mixed model perspective," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
  96. Guan, Keqin & Gong, Xu, 2023. "A new hybrid deep learning model for monthly oil prices forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
  97. Chen, Wang & Chevallier, Julien & Wang, Jiqian & Zhong, Juandan, 2022. "Stock market return predictability revisited: Evidence from a new index constructing the oil market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
  98. Zhang, Xiheng & Liu, Jiayu & Zhang, Kaiqi & Robert, James, 2023. "Analysis of firm performance in presence of oil price shocks: Importance of skilled management," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PA).
  99. Wu, Xi & Wang, Yudong & Tong, Xinle, 2021. "Cash holdings and oil price uncertainty exposures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
  100. Su, Kuangxi & Yao, Yinhong & Zheng, Chengli & Xie, Wenzhao, 2023. "A novel hybrid strategy for crude oil future hedging based on the combination of three minimum-CVaR models," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 35-50.
  101. Zhikai Zhang & Yaojie Zhang & Yudong Wang, 2024. "Forecasting the equity premium using weighted regressions: Does the jump variation help?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 66(5), pages 2049-2082, May.
  102. Zeng, Qing & Zhang, Jixiang & Zhong, Juandan, 2024. "China's futures market volatility and sectoral stock market volatility prediction," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
  103. Zhifeng Dai & Huiting Zhou, 2020. "Prediction of Stock Returns: Sum-of-the-Parts Method and Economic Constraint Method," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-13, January.
  104. Nonejad, Nima, 2022. "Understanding the conditional out-of-sample predictive impact of the price of crude oil on aggregate equity return volatility," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
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