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Modeling and forecasting crude oil markets using ARCH-type models

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier, 2014. "Volatility persistence in crude oil markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 729-742.
  2. Demiralay, Sercan & Ulusoy, Veysel, 2014. "Value-at-risk Predictions of Precious Metals with Long Memory Volatility Models," MPRA Paper 53229, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng, 2012. "Forecasting energy market volatility using GARCH models: Can multivariate models beat univariate models?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 2167-2181.
  4. Lux, Thomas & Segnon, Mawuli & Gupta, Rangan, 2016. "Forecasting crude oil price volatility and value-at-risk: Evidence from historical and recent data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 117-133.
  5. Kristoufek, Ladislav, 2014. "Leverage effect in energy futures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 1-9.
  6. Charlot, Philippe & Marimoutou, Vêlayoudom, 2014. "On the relationship between the prices of oil and the precious metals: Revisiting with a multivariate regime-switching decision tree," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 456-467.
  7. Xiong, Tao & Bao, Yukun & Hu, Zhongyi, 2013. "Beyond one-step-ahead forecasting: Evaluation of alternative multi-step-ahead forecasting models for crude oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 405-415.
  8. Demiralay, Sercan & Ulusoy, Veysel, 2014. "Non-linear volatility dynamics and risk management of precious metals," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 183-202.
  9. Nomikos, Nikos K. & Pouliasis, Panos K., 2011. "Forecasting petroleum futures markets volatility: The role of regimes and market conditions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 321-337, March.
  10. Zhu, Suling & Wang, Jianzhou & Zhao, Weigang & Wang, Jujie, 2011. "A seasonal hybrid procedure for electricity demand forecasting in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(11), pages 3807-3815.
  11. Zhang, Chuanguo & Chen, Xiaoqing, 2014. "The impact of global oil price shocks on China’s bulk commodity markets and fundamental industries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 32-41.
  12. Arouri, Mohamed El Hédi & Lahiani, Amine & Lévy, Aldo & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2012. "Forecasting the conditional volatility of oil spot and futures prices with structural breaks and long memory models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 283-293.
  13. repec:eee:ecmode:v:64:y:2017:i:c:p:560-566 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. repec:ibn:ijefaa:v:9:y:2017:i:8:p:162-178 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Liu, Jing & Wei, Yu & Ma, Feng & Wahab, M.I.M., 2017. "Forecasting the realized range-based volatility using dynamic model averaging approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 12-26.
  16. repec:eee:ecmode:v:72:y:2018:i:c:p:320-332 is not listed on IDEAS
  17. Igor LEBRUN & Ludovic DOBBELAERE, "undated". "A Macro-econometric Model for the Economy of Lesotho," EcoMod2010 259600102, EcoMod.
  18. Du, Xiaodong & Yu, Cindy L. & Hayes, Dermot J., 2011. "Speculation and volatility spillover in the crude oil and agricultural commodity markets: A Bayesian analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 497-503, May.
  19. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng & Wei, Yu, 2011. "Can GARCH-class models capture long memory in WTI crude oil markets?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 921-927, May.
  20. repec:eee:energy:v:151:y:2018:i:c:p:875-888 is not listed on IDEAS
  21. Wang, Yudong & Liu, Li & Ma, Feng & Wu, Chongfeng, 2016. "What the investors need to know about forecasting oil futures return volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 128-139.
  22. Delavari, Majid & Gandali Alikhani, Nadiya & Naderi, Esmaeil, 2013. "Does long memory matter in forecasting oil price volatility?," MPRA Paper 46356, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  23. Illig, Aude & Schindler, Ian, 2016. "Oil Extraction and Price Dynamics," TSE Working Papers 16-701, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
  24. Frantiv{s}ek v{C}ech & Jozef Barun'ik, 2018. "Panel quantile regressions for estimating and predicting the Value--at--Risk of commodities," Papers 1807.11823, arXiv.org.
  25. Delavari, Majid & Gandali Alikhani, Nadiya, 2012. "The Effect of Crude Oil Price on the Methanol price," MPRA Paper 49727, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  26. Sasa Zikovic, 2011. "Measuring risk of crude oil at extreme quantiles," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics, vol. 29(1), pages 9-31.
  27. Liu, Li & Wan, Jieqiu, 2011. "A study of correlations between crude oil spot and futures markets: A rolling sample test," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(21), pages 3754-3766.
  28. repec:ipg:wpaper:201409 is not listed on IDEAS
  29. repec:wsi:afexxx:v:12:y:2017:i:02:n:s2010495217500075 is not listed on IDEAS
  30. Zhang, Chuanguo & Tu, Xiaohua, 2016. "The effect of global oil price shocks on China's metal markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 131-139.
  31. He, Kaijian & Lai, Kin Keung & Yen, Jerome, 2011. "Value-at-risk estimation of crude oil price using MCA based transient risk modeling approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 903-911, September.
  32. Walid Chkili & Shawkat Hammoudeh & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2013. "Long memory and asymmetry in the volatility of commodity markets and Basel Accord: choosing between models," Working Papers 2013-9, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  33. Wen, Fenghua & Gong, Xu & Cai, Shenghua, 2016. "Forecasting the volatility of crude oil futures using HAR-type models with structural breaks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 400-413.
  34. Lux, Thomas & Segnon, Mawuli & Gupta, Rangan, 2015. "Modeling and forecasting crude oil price volatility: Evidence from historical and recent data," FinMaP-Working Papers 31, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
  35. Lin, Boqiang & Wesseh, Presley K. & Appiah, Michael Owusu, 2014. "Oil price fluctuation, volatility spillover and the Ghanaian equity market: Implication for portfolio management and hedging effectiveness," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 172-182.
  36. Chkili, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2014. "Volatility forecasting and risk management for commodity markets in the presence of asymmetry and long memory," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 1-18.
  37. repec:ipg:wpaper:2013-009 is not listed on IDEAS
  38. repec:eee:eneeco:v:67:y:2017:i:c:p:508-519 is not listed on IDEAS
  39. Hou, Aijun & Suardi, Sandy, 2012. "A nonparametric GARCH model of crude oil price return volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 618-626.
  40. Delavari, Majid & Gandali Alikhani, Nadiya, 2013. "The Dynamic Effects of Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices on Iran's Methanol," MPRA Paper 49733, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  41. Wei, Yu & Wang, Yudong & Huang, Dengshi, 2010. "Forecasting crude oil market volatility: Further evidence using GARCH-class models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1477-1484, November.
  42. Manh Ha Nguyen & Olivier Darné, 2018. "Forecasting and risk management in the Vietnam Stock Exchange," Working Papers halshs-01679456, HAL.
  43. Charfeddine, Lanouar, 2016. "Breaks or long range dependence in the energy futures volatility: Out-of-sample forecasting and VaR analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 354-374.
  44. Akbar Komijani & Esmaeil Naderi & Nadiya Gandali Alikhani, 2014. "A hybrid approach for forecasting of oil prices volatility," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 38(3), pages 323-340, September.
  45. Zhang, Jin-Liang & Zhang, Yue-Jun & Zhang, Lu, 2015. "A novel hybrid method for crude oil price forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 649-659.
  46. repec:ibn:ibrjnl:v:11:y:2018:i:5:p:129-134 is not listed on IDEAS
  47. repec:eee:eneeco:v:67:y:2017:i:c:p:315-327 is not listed on IDEAS
  48. Raúl De Jesús Gutiérrez & Reyna Vergara González & Miguel A. Díaz Carreño, 2015. "Predicción de la volatilidad en el mercado del petróleo mexicano ante la presencia de efectos asimétricos," REVISTA CUADERNOS DE ECONOMÍA, UN - RCE - CID, March.
  49. repec:gam:jjrfmx:v:11:y:2018:i:2:p:30-:d:151623 is not listed on IDEAS
  50. Svetlana Borovkova & Diego Mahakena, 2015. "News, volatility and jumps: the case of natural gas futures," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(7), pages 1217-1242, July.
  51. repec:eee:eneeco:v:68:y:2017:i:c:p:141-150 is not listed on IDEAS
  52. Manel Hamdi & Chaker Aloui, 2015. "Forecasting Crude Oil Price Using Artificial Neural Networks: A Literature Survey," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(2), pages 1339-1359.
  53. repec:eee:ecmode:v:64:y:2017:i:c:p:409-418 is not listed on IDEAS
  54. Liu, Hsiang-Hsi & Chen, Yi-Chun, 2013. "A study on the volatility spillovers, long memory effects and interactions between carbon and energy markets: The impacts of extreme weather," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 840-855.
  55. repec:ipg:wpaper:9 is not listed on IDEAS
  56. Walid Matar & Saud M. Al-Fattah & Tarek Atallah & Axel Pierru, 2013. "An introduction to oil market volatility analysis," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 37(3), pages 247-269, September.
  57. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2012. "Volatility regimes, asymmetric basis effects and forecasting performance: An empirical investigation of the WTI crude oil futures market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 294-306.
  58. Aude Illig & Ian Schindler, 2017. "Oil Extraction, Economic Growth, and Oil Price Dynamics," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 1-17, March.
  59. Wei, Yu, 2012. "Forecasting volatility of fuel oil futures in China: GARCH-type, SV or realized volatility models?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(22), pages 5546-5556.
  60. repec:eee:eneeco:v:67:y:2017:i:c:p:136-145 is not listed on IDEAS
  61. repec:eee:eneeco:v:70:y:2018:i:c:p:307-333 is not listed on IDEAS
  62. Liu, Li & Wan, Jieqiu, 2012. "A study of Shanghai fuel oil futures price volatility based on high frequency data: Long-range dependence, modeling and forecasting," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2245-2253.
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