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A seasonal hybrid procedure for electricity demand forecasting in China

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Listed:
  • Zhu, Suling
  • Wang, Jianzhou
  • Zhao, Weigang
  • Wang, Jujie

Abstract

Electricity is a special energy which is hard to store, so the electricity demand forecasting in China remains an important problem. This paper aims at developing an improved hybrid model for electricity demand in China, which takes the advantages of moving average procedure, combined method, hybrid model and adaptive particle swarm optimization algorithm, known as MA-C-WH. It is designed for making trend and seasonal adjustments which simultaneously presents the electricity demand forecasts. Four actual electricity demand time series in China power grids are selected to illustrate the proposed MA-C-WH model, and one existing seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (SARIMA) is selected to compare with the proposed model using the same data series. The results of popular forecasting precision indexes show that our proposed model is an effective forecasting technique for seasonal time series with nonlinear trend.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhu, Suling & Wang, Jianzhou & Zhao, Weigang & Wang, Jujie, 2011. "A seasonal hybrid procedure for electricity demand forecasting in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(11), pages 3807-3815.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:88:y:2011:i:11:p:3807-3815
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2011.05.005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

    Optimization; Forecasting; Electricity demand;

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