Turkey's short-term gross annual electricity demand forecast by fuzzy logic approach
This paper aims to forecast Turkey's short-term gross annual electricity demand by applying fuzzy logic methodology while general information on economical, political and electricity market conditions of the country is also given. Unlike most of the other forecast models about Turkey's electricity demand, which usually uses more than one parameter, gross domestic product (GDP) based on purchasing power parity was the only parameter used in the model. Proposed model made good predictions and captured the system dynamic behavior covering the years of 1970-2014. The model yielded average absolute relative errors of 3.9%. Furthermore, the model estimates a 4.5% decrease in electricity demand of Turkey in 2009 and the electricity demand growth rates are projected to be about 4% between 2010 and 2014. It is concluded that forecasting the Turkey's short-term gross electricity demand with the country's economic performance will provide more reliable projections. Forecasting the annual electricity consumption of a country could be made by any designer with the help of the fuzzy logic procedure described in this paper. The advantage of this model lies on the ability to mimic the human thinking and reasoning.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hamzacebi, Coskun, 2007. "Forecasting of Turkey's net electricity energy consumption on sectoral bases," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 2009-2016, March.
- Tunc, Murat & Camdali, Unal & Parmaksizoglu, Cem, 2006. "Comparison of Turkey's electrical energy consumption and production with some European countries and optimization of future electrical power supply investments in Turkey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 50-59, January.
- Akay, Diyar & Atak, Mehmet, 2007. "Grey prediction with rolling mechanism for electricity demand forecasting of Turkey," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1670-1675.
- Mahadevan, Renuka & Asafu-Adjaye, John, 2007. "Energy consumption, economic growth and prices: A reassessment using panel VECM for developed and developing countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 2481-2490, April.
- Erdogdu, Erkan, 2007.
"Electricity demand analysis using cointegration and ARIMA modelling: A case study of Turkey,"
Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 1129-1146, February.
- Erdogdu, Erkan, 2007. "Electricity Demand Analysis Using Cointegration and ARIMA Modelling: A case study of Turkey," MPRA Paper 19099, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Jebaraj, S. & Iniyan, S., 2006. "A review of energy models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 281-311, August.
- Sanders, I. & Batty, W. J. & Probert, S. D. & Hagino, K. & Aida, S., 1993. "Supply of, and demand for, a resource: Fuzzy logistical optimisation technique," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 285-302.
- Yoo, Seung-Hoon & Kwak, So-Yoon, 2010. "Electricity consumption and economic growth in seven South American countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 181-188, January. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)