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Capturing the dynamics of the China crude oil futures: Markov switching, co-movement, and volatility forecasting

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Juan Meng & Bin Mo & He Nie, 2023. "The dynamics of crude oil future prices on China's energy markets: Quantile‐on‐quantile and casualty‐in‐quantiles approaches," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(12), pages 1853-1871, December.
  2. Maosheng Ye & Jim H. Shen & Eric Golson & Chien‐Chiang Lee & Yuting Li, 2022. "The impact of Sino–US trade friction on the performance of China's textile and apparel industry," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 151-166, August.
  3. Liu, Rongyan & He, Lingyun & Xia, Yufei & Fu, Yating & Chen, Ling, 2023. "Research on the time-varying effects among green finance markets in China: A fresh evidence from multi-frequency scale perspective," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
  4. Hu, Genhua & Jiang, Haifeng, 2023. "Time-varying jumps in China crude oil futures market impacted by COVID-19 pandemic," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
  5. Jafar Hussain & Chien‐Chiang Lee, 2022. "A green path towards sustainable development: Optimal behavior of the duopoly game model with carbon neutrality instruments," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(6), pages 1523-1541, December.
  6. Lee, Hsiang-Tai & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2022. "A regime-switching real-time copula GARCH model for optimal futures hedging," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
  7. Zhang, Dongyang & Wang, Cao & Wang, Yizhi, 2024. "Unveiling the critical nexus: Volatility of crude oil future prices and trade partner’s cash holding behavior in the face of the Russia–Ukraine conflict," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
  8. Khan, Faridoon & Muhammadullah, Sara & Sharif, Arshian & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2024. "The role of green energy stock market in forecasting China's crude oil market: An application of IIS approach and sparse regression models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
  9. Su, Tong & Lin, Boqiang, 2024. "Reassessing the information transmission and pricing influence of Shanghai crude oil futures: A time-varying perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
  10. Zhou, Xinxing & Gao, Yan & Wang, Ping & Zhu, Bangzhu, 2022. "Examining the overconfidence and overreaction in China’s carbon markets," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 472-489.
  11. Silva, Thiago Christiano & Braz, Tercio & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda, 2024. "Mapping the landscape of energy markets research: A bibliometric analysis and predictive assessment using machine learning," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
  12. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Zhou, Hegang & Xu, Chao & Zhang, Xiaoming, 2023. "Dynamic spillover effects among international crude oil markets from the time-frequency perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
  13. Naqvi, Bushra & Mirza, Nawazish & Umar, Muhammad & Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas, 2023. "Shanghai crude oil futures: Returns Independence, volatility asymmetry, and hedging potential," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
  14. Guo, Lili & Huang, Xinya & Li, Yanjiao & Li, Houjian, 2023. "Forecasting crude oil futures price using machine learning methods: Evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PA).
  15. Lu, Xinjie & Ma, Feng & Li, Haibo & Wang, Jianqiong, 2023. "INE oil futures volatility prediction: Exchange rates or international oil futures volatility?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
  16. Hsieh, Meng-Fen & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Lin, Yi-Ching, 2022. "New evidence on liquidity creation and bank capital: The roles of liquidity and political risk," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 778-794.
  17. Zhang, Jiaming & Guo, Songlin & Dou, Bin & Xie, Bingyuan, 2023. "Evidence of the internationalization of China's crude oil futures: Asymmetric linkages to global financial risks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PA).
  18. Peng Ye & Yong Li & Abu Bakkar Siddik, 2023. "Forecasting the Return of Carbon Price in the Chinese Market Based on an Improved Stacking Ensemble Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(11), pages 1-39, June.
  19. Haoyu Shi & Yuansheng Wang & Xu Zheng, 2026. "Extreme Comovement and Risk Spillovers in Crude Oil Prices: A Tale of Two Events," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 46(2), pages 283-319, February.
  20. Zhang, Xiaoming & Zhang, Tong & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2022. "The path of financial risk spillover in the stock market based on the R-vine-Copula model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 600(C).
  21. Zhang, Dongyang & Bai, Dingchuan & Chen, Xingyu, 2024. "Can crude oil futures market volatility motivate peer firms in competing ESG performance? An exploration of Shanghai International Energy Exchange," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
  22. Zhang, Xiaoming & Zhang, Xinsong & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Zhao, Yue, 2023. "Measurement and prediction of systemic risk in China’s banking industry," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
  23. Xu, Zhiwei & Gan, Shiqi & Hua, Xia & Xiong, Yujie, 2024. "Can the sentiment of the official media predict the return volatility of the Chinese crude oil futures?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
  24. Shi, Chunpei & Wei, Yu & Li, Xiafei & Liu, Yuntong, 2023. "Combination forecasts of China's oil futures returns based on multiple uncertainties and their connectedness with oil," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
  25. Ren, Xiaohang & He, Yue & Liu, Chuanwang & Tao, Lizhu, 2025. "Extreme risk spillovers between SC, WTI and Brent crude oil futures-Evidence from time-varying Granger causality test," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 320(C).
  26. Sun, Chuanwang & Peng, Yiqi & Zhan, Yanhong, 2023. "How does China's crude oil futures affect the crude oil prices at home and abroad? Evidence from the cross-market exchange rate spillovers," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 204-222.
  27. Hong, Yanran & Wang, Lu & Liang, Chao & Umar, Muhammad, 2022. "Impact of financial instability on international crude oil volatility: New sight from a regime-switching framework," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
  28. Yan, Cheng & Mao, Zhicheng & Ho, Kung-Cheng, 2022. "Effect of green financial reform and innovation pilot zones on corporate investment efficiency," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
  29. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Wang, Chih-Wei & Thinh, Bui Tien & Xu, Zhi-Ting, 2022. "Climate risk and bank liquidity creation: International evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
  30. Xiangyu Chen & Jittima Tongurai & Pattana Boonchoo, 2024. "Revisiting China’s Commodity Futures Market Amid the Main Waves of COVID-19 Pandemics," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 31(4), pages 1035-1063, December.
  31. Ali, Shoaib & Xiaoyang, Xu & Alharbi, Samar S. & Rasheed, Muhammad Shahid, 2025. "Financial markets and environmental risks: unveiling the impact of climate uncertainty," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
  32. Long, Houyin & Huang, Xiang & Wang, Jiaxin, 2023. "How does energy finance promote energy transition? Evidence from Shanghai crude oil futures," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
  33. Zhao, Xin & Li, Yue & Wang, Tongyu, 2025. "Machine confirming: Validating financial theories with transfer learning," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
  34. Yin, Libo & Cao, Hong & Guo, Yumei, 2024. "The information content of Shanghai crude oil futures vs WTI benchmark: Evidence from temporal and spatial dimensions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
  35. Zhu, Pengfei & Lu, Tuantuan & Shang, Yue & Zhang, Zerong & Wei, Yu, 2023. "Can China's national carbon trading market hedge the risks of light and medium crude oil? A comparative analysis with the European carbon market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PA).
  36. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Adewuyi, Adeolu O. & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2022. "Quantile risk spillovers between energy and agricultural commodity markets: Evidence from pre and during COVID-19 outbreak," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
  37. Zhang, Xiaoming & Wei, Chunyan & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Tian, Yiming, 2023. "Systemic risk of Chinese financial institutions and asset price bubbles," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
  38. Yang, Hao-Chang & Feng, Gen-Fu & Zhao, Xin Xin & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2022. "The impacts of energy insecurity on green innovation: A multi-country study," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 139-154.
  39. Chen, Yang & Cheng, Liang & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2022. "How does the use of industrial robots affect the ecological footprint? International evidence," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
  40. Alkathery, Mohammed A. & Chaudhuri, Kausik & Nasir, Muhammad Ali, 2022. "Implications of clean energy, oil and emissions pricing for the GCC energy sector stock," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
  41. Yang, Jie & Feng, Yun & Yang, Hao, 2024. "Scrutinizing multi-scale and multi-quantile interactions in commodity markets: A petrochemical industrial chain perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
  42. Luo, Rui & Liu, Jinpei & Chen, Peipei & Luo, Jian, 2025. "Enhancing carbon price robust forecasting: A text-driven method utilizing weighted interval-joint quadratic support vector regression," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
  43. Yongmin Zhang & Shusheng Ding & Haili Shi, 2022. "The impact of COVID‐19 on the interdependence between US and Chinese oil futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(11), pages 2041-2052, November.
  44. Lee, Hsiang-Tai, 2022. "Regime-switching angular correlation diversification," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
  45. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Karim, Sitara & Farid, Saqib & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2022. "Comparing the asymmetric efficiency of dirty and clean energy markets pre and during COVID-19," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 548-562.
  46. Zhou, Fengxiu & Wen, Huwei, 2022. "Trade policy uncertainty, development strategy, and export behavior: Evidence from listed industrial companies in China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
  47. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Yahya, Farzan, 2024. "Mitigating energy instability: The influence of trilemma choices, financial development, and technology advancements," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
  48. Yangjie Huang & Sihui Li & Xiyuan Xiang & Leilei Huang, 2024. "Analyzing the configuration of the National Innovation System for Innovation Capability: evidence from Global Innovation Index reports," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-13, December.
  49. Liu, Min & Liu, Hong-Fei & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2024. "An empirical study on the response of the energy market to the shock from the artificial intelligence industry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
  50. Zhang, Hongwei & Zhao, Xinyi & Gao, Wang & Niu, Zibo, 2023. "The role of higher moments in predicting China's oil futures volatility: Evidence from machine learning models," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
  51. Wang, Deqing & Lu, Zhihao & Liu, Zhenhua & Xue, Shoucong & Guo, Mengxia & Hou, Yiwen, 2026. "A functional mixture prediction model for dynamically forecasting cumulative intraday returns of crude oil futures," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 158-180.
  52. Wen, Huwei & Liang, Weitao & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2022. "Urban broadband infrastructure and green total-factor energy efficiency in China," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
  53. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Wang, Fuhao, 2022. "How does digital inclusive finance affect carbon intensity?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 174-190.
  54. Yan, Wan-Lin & Cheung, Adrian (Wai Kong), 2024. "Connectedness among Chinese climate policy uncertainty, exchange rate, Chinese and international crude oil markets: Insights from time and frequency domain analyses of high order moments," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
  55. Yang, Jie & Feng, Yun & Yang, Hao, 2025. "Multiscale dynamic interdependency between China’s crude oil futures and petrochemical-related commodity futures: An integrated perspective from the industry chain system," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(PA).
  56. Chen, Louisa & Verousis, Thanos & Wang, Kai & Zhou, Zhiping, 2023. "Financial stress and commodity price volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
  57. Werner Kristjanpoller, 2024. "A hybrid econometrics and machine learning based modeling of realized volatility of natural gas," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-32, December.
  58. Ouyang, Ruolan & Zhuang, Chengkai & Wang, Tingting & Zhang, Xuan, 2022. "Network analysis of risk transmission among energy futures: An industrial chain perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
  59. Yue, Tian & Li, Lu-Lu & Wu, Wenfeng, 2025. "Weekday variations in the Chinese crude oil futures market: Unveiling the influence of COVID-19 and EIA shocks," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
  60. Yang, Jie & Feng, Yun & Yang, Hao, 2024. "The spillover and comovement of downside and upside tail risks among crude oil futures markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA).
  61. Lee, Chien-Chiang & He, Zhi-Wen & Xiao, Fu, 2022. "How does information and communication technology affect renewable energy technology innovation? International evidence," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 546-557.
  62. Qingmin Hao & Jim Huangnan Shen & Chien-Chiang Lee, 2023. "Risk contagion of bank-firm loan network: evidence from China," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 13(2), pages 341-361, June.
  63. Goghie, Alexandru-Stefan, 2025. "The geopolitics of crude oil futures contracts benchmarks: RMB-denominated oil futures and the shift towards autonomy," SocArXiv ftsg6_v2, Center for Open Science.
  64. Gaige Zhang & Liyan Han & Jiayu Jin, 2025. "Linkages Between Shanghai and Global Crude Oil Futures Markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 45(12), pages 2403-2433, December.
  65. Zhu, Bangzhu & Wan, Chunzhuo & Wang, Ping, 2022. "Interval forecasting of carbon price: A novel multiscale ensemble forecasting approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
  66. Liu, Min & Huang, Jianzhong & Liu, Shuai, 2026. "Artificial intelligence assets and energy markets: Risk correlation dynamics and determinants," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
  67. Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Nasreen, Samia & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2023. "U.S. leveraged loan and debt markets: Implications for optimal portfolio and hedging," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
  68. Xu, Jin-Jin & Wang, Hai-Jie & Tang, Kai, 2022. "The sustainability of industrial structure on green eco-efficiency in the Yellow River Basin," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 775-788.
  69. Arash Pourrezaee & Ehsan Hajizadeh, 2025. "Forecasting Bitcoin Volatility and Value-at-Risk Using Stacking Machine Learning Models With Intraday Data," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 66(1), pages 485-515, July.
  70. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Wang, Chih-Wei & Hsieh, Hsin-Yi & Chen, Wen-Ling, 2023. "The impact of central bank digital currency variation on firm's implied volatility," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
  71. Li, Houjian & Huang, Xinya & Guo, Lili, 2023. "Extreme risk dependence and time-varying spillover between crude oil, commodity market and inflation in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
  72. Xu, Zhiwei & Gou, Xinyi & Zhang, Teng, 2025. "Have the Chinese crude oil futures prices made a progress towards becoming the regional oil pricing benchmark? Empirical analysis from the asset pricing perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
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  77. Lee, Chien-Chiang & He, Zhi-Wen & Yuan, Zihao, 2023. "A pathway to sustainable development: Digitization and green productivity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
  78. Wen Huwei & Chen Shuai & Lee Chien-Chiang, 2023. "Impact of Low-carbon City Construction on Financing, Investment, and Total Factor Productivity of Energy-intensive Enterprises," The Energy Journal, , vol. 44(2), pages 79-102, March.
  79. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Farid, Saqib & Yousaf, Imran & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2023. "Asymmetric efficiency in petroleum markets before and during COVID-19," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PA).
  80. Huang, Wenyang & Gao, Tianxiao & Hao, Yun & Wang, Xiuqing, 2023. "Transformer-based forecasting for intraday trading in the Shanghai crude oil market: Analyzing open-high-low-close prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PA).
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