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The path of financial risk spillover in the stock market based on the R-vine-Copula model

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  • Zhang, Xiaoming
  • Zhang, Tong
  • Lee, Chien-Chiang

Abstract

This research focuses on the direct and indirect systemic risk spillovers among East Asian, European, and U.S. stock markets under the COVID-19 pandemic. Based on the GARCH-Copula-CoVaR model, we construct the direct spillover matrix of systemic risk and further explore the indirect spillover path through R-vine. The empirical results first show via the direct path that Hong Kong exhibited the largest change in value of risk after the pandemic erupted. Second, the indirect path is that European and U.S. stock market risks are transmitted to China domestically via Hong Kong and Japan. The key nodes provide reference for risk prevention.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Xiaoming & Zhang, Tong & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2022. "The path of financial risk spillover in the stock market based on the R-vine-Copula model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 600(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:600:y:2022:i:c:s0378437122003430
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2022.127470
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    5. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Adewuyi, Adeolu O. & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2022. "Quantile risk spillovers between energy and agricultural commodity markets: Evidence from pre and during COVID-19 outbreak," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    6. Zhang, Xiaoming & Wei, Chunyan & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Tian, Yiming, 2023. "Systemic risk of Chinese financial institutions and asset price bubbles," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    7. Lv, Chengchao & Song, Jie & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2022. "Can digital finance narrow the regional disparities in the quality of economic growth? Evidence from China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 502-521.
    8. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Wang, Chang-song, 2022. "Financial development, technological innovation and energy security: Evidence from Chinese provincial experience," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    9. Hung, Ying-Shu & Lee, Chingnun & Chen, Pei-Fen, 2022. "China’s monetary policy and global stock markets: A new cointegration approach with smoothing structural changes," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 643-666.
    10. Sun Meng & Yan Chen, 2023. "Market Volatility Spillover, Network Diffusion, and Financial Systemic Risk Management: Financial Modeling and Empirical Study," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-16, March.
    11. Liu, Rongyan & He, Lingyun & Xia, Yufei & Fu, Yating & Chen, Ling, 2023. "Research on the time-varying effects among green finance markets in China: A fresh evidence from multi-frequency scale perspective," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    12. Deng, Jing & Xu, Zihan & Xing, Xiaoyun, 2023. "Dynamic spillovers between clean energy and non-ferrous metals markets in China: A network-based analysis during the COVID-19 pandemic," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Systemic financial risk; GARCH Copula CoVaR; R-complex correlation; COVID-19 pandemic; Spillover;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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