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Bayesian inference for generalized linear mixed models of portfolio credit risk

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Koopman, Siem Jan & Lucas, Andre & Monteiro, Andre, 2008. "The multi-state latent factor intensity model for credit rating transitions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 399-424, January.
  2. Wozabal, David & Hochreiter, Ronald, 2012. "A coupled Markov chain approach to credit risk modeling," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 403-415.
  3. Bernd Schwaab & Siem Jan Koopman & André Lucas, 2017. "Global Credit Risk: World, Country and Industry Factors," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(2), pages 296-317, March.
  4. Xia Li, 2024. "RETRACTED ARTICLE: Unveiling Portfolio Resilience: Harnessing Asymmetric Copulas for Dynamic Risk Assessment in the Knowledge Economy," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(3), pages 10200-10226, September.
  5. Jacobs, Michael & Kiefer, Nicholas M., 2010. "The Bayesian Approach to Default Risk: A Guide," Working Papers 10-01, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
  6. D. V. Boreiko & Y. M. Kaniovski & G. Ch. Pflug, 2016. "Modeling dependent credit rating transitions: a comparison of coupling schemes and empirical evidence," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 24(4), pages 989-1007, December.
  7. Wang, Fa, 2017. "Maximum likelihood estimation and inference for high dimensional nonlinear factor models with application to factor-augmented regressions," MPRA Paper 93484, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 May 2019.
  8. Konrad Banachewicz & André Lucas, 2008. "Quantile forecasting for credit risk management using possibly misspecified hidden Markov models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(7), pages 566-586.
  9. M. Dietsch & C. Welter-Nicol, 2014. "Do LTV and DSTI caps make banks more resilient?," Débats Economiques et financiers 13, Banque de France.
  10. Drew Creal & Bernd Schwaab & Siem Jan Koopman & Andr� Lucas, 2014. "Observation-Driven Mixed-Measurement Dynamic Factor Models with an Application to Credit Risk," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(5), pages 898-915, December.
  11. Dan Cheng & Pasquale Cirillo, 2019. "An Urn-Based Nonparametric Modeling of the Dependence between PD and LGD with an Application to Mortgages," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-21, July.
  12. Daniel R÷Sch & Harald Scheule, 2010. "Downturn Credit Portfolio Risk, Regulatory Capital and Prudential Incentives-super-," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 10(Financial), pages 185-207.
  13. Yi-Ping Chang & Chih-Tun Yu, 2014. "Bayesian confidence intervals for probability of default and asset correlation of portfolio credit risk," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 331-361, February.
  14. Kadam, Ashay & Lenk, Peter, 2008. "Bayesian inference for issuer heterogeneity in credit ratings migration," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 2267-2274, October.
  15. Schwaab, Bernd & Koopman, Siem Jan & Lucas, André, 2014. "Nowcasting and forecasting global financial sector stress and credit market dislocation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 741-758.
  16. Blümke, Oliver, 2018. "On the cyclicality of default rates of banks: A comparative study of the asset correlation and diversification effects," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 65-77.
  17. Carlos Castro, 2012. "Confidence sets for asset correlations in portfolio credit risk," Revista de Economía del Rosario, Universidad del Rosario.
  18. Stefan Kerbl & Michael Sigmund, 2011. "What Drives Aggregate Credit Risk?," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 22, pages 72-87.
  19. Peter Grundke & Kamil Pliszka & Michael Tuchscherer, 2020. "Model and estimation risk in credit risk stress tests," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 163-199, July.
  20. Liu, Zhenqing & Luo, Yi & Duan, Mohan, 2025. "Macroeconomic factors, industrial enterprises, and debt default prediction: Based on the VAR-GRU model," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
  21. Schwaab, Bernd & Koopman, Siem Jan & Lucas, André, 2011. "Systemic risk diagnostics: coincident indicators and early warning signals," Working Paper Series 1327, European Central Bank.
  22. J. Crook & T. Bellotti, 2012. "Asset correlations for credit card defaults," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(2), pages 87-95, January.
  23. Lee, Yongwoong & Rösch, Daniel & Scheule, Harald, 2021. "Systematic credit risk in securitised mortgage portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
  24. Rösch, Daniel & Scheule, Harald, 2009. "The Empirical Relation between Credit Quality, Recovery and Correlation," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-418, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  25. repec:rfb:journl:v:10:y:2018:i:2:p:0077-094 is not listed on IDEAS
  26. Bank for International Settlements, 2011. "Portfolio and risk management for central banks and sovereign wealth funds," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 58, November.
  27. Jonathan Crook & Tony Bellotti, 2010. "Time varying and dynamic models for default risk in consumer loans," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 173(2), pages 283-305, April.
  28. Wolff, Christian & Bams, Dennis & Pisa, Magdalena, 2015. "Credit risk characteristics of US small business portfolios," CEPR Discussion Papers 10889, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  29. Koopman, Siem Jan & Lucas, André & Schwaab, Bernd, 2011. "Modeling frailty-correlated defaults using many macroeconomic covariates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 162(2), pages 312-325, June.
  30. Steffi Höse & Stefan Huschens, 2011. "Confidence Intervals for Asset Correlations in the Asymptotic Single Risk Factor Model," Operations Research Proceedings, in: Bo Hu & Karl Morasch & Stefan Pickl & Markus Siegle (ed.), Operations Research Proceedings 2010, pages 111-116, Springer.
  31. Lee, Yongwoong & Rösch, Daniel & Scheule, Harald, 2016. "Accuracy of mortgage portfolio risk forecasts during financial crises," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(2), pages 440-456.
  32. Kerem Tuzcuoglu, 2019. "Composite Likelihood Estimation of an Autoregressive Panel Probit Model with Random Effects," Staff Working Papers 19-16, Bank of Canada.
  33. Jaehoon Hahn & Ho-Seong Moon, 2016. "Credit Cycle and the Macroeconomy: Empirical Evidence from Korea," Economic Analysis (Quarterly), Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea, vol. 22(4), pages 76-108, December.
  34. Boudreault, Mathieu & Gauthier, Geneviève & Thomassin, Tommy, 2015. "Estimation of correlations in portfolio credit risk models based on noisy security prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 334-349.
  35. Dimitris Gavalas & Theodore Syriopoulos, 2014. "Bank Credit Risk Management and Rating Migration Analysis on the Business Cycle," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 2(1), pages 1-22, March.
  36. Klaus Duellmann & Jonathan Küll & Michael Kunisch, 2010. "Estimating asset correlations from stock prices or default rates - which method is superior?," Post-Print hal-00736734, HAL.
  37. Daniel Rösch & Harald Scheule, 2011. "Securitization rating performance and agency incentives," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Portfolio and risk management for central banks and sovereign wealth funds, volume 58, pages 287-314, Bank for International Settlements.
  38. Lee, Yongwoong & Poon, Ser-Huang, 2014. "Forecasting and decomposition of portfolio credit risk using macroeconomic and frailty factors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 69-92.
  39. T. Gärtner & S. Kaniovski & Y. Kaniovski, 2021. "Numerical estimates of risk factors contingent on credit ratings," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 563-589, October.
  40. Daniel Rösch & Harald Scheule, 2009. "Credit Portfolio Loss Forecasts for Economic Downturns," Financial Markets, Institutions & Instruments, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(1), pages 1-26, February.
  41. Rösch, Daniel & Scheule, Harald, 2012. "Capital incentives and adequacy for securitizations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 733-748.
  42. Mathias Lé & Sandrine Lecarpentier & Henri Fraisse & Michel Dietsch, 2019. "Lower bank capital requirements as a policy tool to support credit to SMEs: evidence from a policy experiment," Working Papers hal-04141885, HAL.
  43. Oliver Blümke, 2020. "Estimating the probability of default for no‐default and low‐default portfolios," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 69(1), pages 89-107, January.
  44. Hanaan Yaseen, 2018. "Dividend policy and socio-cultural factors: some preliminary findings," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 10(2), pages 077-094, December.
  45. Wolff, Christian & Bams, Dennis & Pisa, Magdalena, 2012. "Modeling default correlation in a US retail loan portfolio," CEPR Discussion Papers 9205, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  46. D. V. Boreiko & Y. M. Kaniovski & G. Ch. Pflug, 2017. "Numerical Modeling of Dependent Credit Rating Transitions with Asynchronously Moving Industries," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 49(3), pages 499-516, March.
  47. Dmitri Boreiko & Serguei Kaniovski & Yuri Kaniovski & Georg Ch. Pflug, 2018. "Business Cycles and Conditional Credit-Rating Migration Matrices," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(04), pages 1-19, December.
  48. Gourieroux, C. & Jasiak, J., 2012. "Granularity adjustment for default risk factor model with cohorts," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1464-1477.
  49. Marius Pfeuffer & Goncalo dos Reis & Greig smith, 2018. "Capturing Model Risk and Rating Momentum in the Estimation of Probabilities of Default and Credit Rating Migrations," Papers 1809.09889, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2020.
  50. Michael Kalkbrener & Akwum Onwunta, 2009. "Validating Structural Credit Portfolio Models," Working Papers 014, COMISEF.
  51. Feng, Xiangnan & Lu, Bin & Song, Xinyuan & Ma, Shuang, 2019. "Financial literacy and household finances: A Bayesian two-part latent variable modeling approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 119-137.
  52. Daniel Rösch & Harald Scheule, 2014. "Forecasting Mortgage Securitization Risk Under Systematic Risk and Parameter Uncertainty," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 81(3), pages 563-586, September.
  53. Dietsch, Michel & Petey, Joël, 2015. "The credit-risk implications of home ownership promotion: The effects of public subsidies and adjustable-rate loans," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 103-120.
  54. Jian He & Asma Khedher & Peter Spreij, 2024. "Calibration of the rating transition model for high and low default portfolios," Papers 2405.00576, arXiv.org.
  55. repec:syb:wpbsba:03/2013 is not listed on IDEAS
  56. Duellmann, Klaus & Küll, Jonathan & Kunisch, Michael, 2010. "Estimating asset correlations from stock prices or default rates--Which method is superior?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2341-2357, November.
  57. Jeffrey R. Stokes, 2023. "A nonlinear inversion procedure for modeling the effects of economic factors on credit risk migration," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 855-878, October.
  58. Eguchi, Shoichi, 2018. "Model comparison for generalized linear models with dependent observations," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 5(C), pages 171-188.
  59. Nguyen, Ha, 2023. "An empirical application of Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo to frailty correlated default models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 103-121.
  60. Chew Lian Chua & G. C. Lim & Penelope Smith, 2008. "A Bayesian Simulation Approach to Inference on a Multi-State Latent Factor Intensity Model," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2008n16, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  61. Wang, Fa, 2022. "Maximum likelihood estimation and inference for high dimensional generalized factor models with application to factor-augmented regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 229(1), pages 180-200.
  62. Ho, Kung-Cheng & Lee, Shih-Cheng & Chen, Jiun-Lin, 2022. "Book-to-market equity and asset correlations—An international study," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 258-274.
  63. Daniel Rosch & Harald Scheule, 2008. "Credit Losses in Economic Downturns - Empirical Evidence for Hong Kong Mortgage Loans," Working Papers 152008, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  64. M. Dietsch & K. Düllmann & H. Fraisse & P. Koziol & C. Ott, 2016. "Support for the SME Supporting Factor - Multi-country empirical evidence on systematic risk factor for SME loans," Débats Economiques et financiers 23, Banque de France.
  65. Bernd Schwaab & Andre Lucas & Siem Jan Koopman, 2010. "Systemic Risk Diagnostics," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-104/2/DSF 2, Tinbergen Institute, revised 29 Nov 2010.
  66. Stefanescu, Catalina & Tunaru, Radu & Turnbull, Stuart, 2009. "The credit rating process and estimation of transition probabilities: A Bayesian approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 216-234, March.
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