Time varying and dynamic models for default risk in consumer loans
We review the incorporation of time varying variables into models of the risk of consumer default. Lenders typically have data which are of a panel format. This allows the inclusion of time varying covariates in models of account level default by including them in survival models, panel models or 'correction factor' models. The choice depends on the aim of the model and the assumptions that can be plausibly made. At the level of the portfolio, Merton-type models have incorporated macroeconomic and latent variables in mixed (factor) models and Kalman filter models whereas reduced form approaches include Markov chains and stochastic intensity models. The latter models have mainly been applied to corporate defaults and considerable scope remains for application to consumer loans. Copyright (c) 2009 Royal Statistical Society.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 173 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/rssa
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://ordering.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/subs.asp?ref=1467-985X&doi=10.1111/(ISSN)1467-985X|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- R. M. Cyert & H. J. Davidson & G. L. Thompson, 1962. "Estimation of the Allowance for Doubtful Accounts by Markov Chains," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 8(3), pages 287-303, April.
- Perli, Roberto & Nayda, William I., 2004.
"Economic and regulatory capital allocation for revolving retail exposures,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 789-809, April.
- Roberto Perli & William I. Nayda, 2003. "Economic and regulatory capital allocation for revolving retail exposures," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-39, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Merton, Robert C., 1973.
"On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates,"
684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-70, May.
- repec:cup:cbooks:9780521589857 is not listed on IDEAS
- Gordy, Michael B. & Howells, Bradley, 2006. "Procyclicality in Basel II: Can we treat the disease without killing the patient?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 395-417, July.
- Philipp J. Schönbucher, 2000. "Factor Models for Portofolio Credit Risk," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers bgse16_2001, University of Bonn, Germany.
- Crook, Jonathan N. & Edelman, David B. & Thomas, Lyn C., 2007. "Recent developments in consumer credit risk assessment," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 183(3), pages 1447-1465, December.
- McNeil, Alexander J. & Wendin, Jonathan P., 2007. "Bayesian inference for generalized linear mixed models of portfolio credit risk," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 131-149, March.
- Hamerle, Alfred & Liebig, Thilo & Scheule, Harald, 2004. "Forecasting Credit Portfolio Risk," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2004,01, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Jarrow, Robert A & Lando, David & Turnbull, Stuart M, 1997. "A Markov Model for the Term Structure of Credit Risk Spreads," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 481-523.
- Hamerle, Alfred & Liebig, Thilo & Rösch, Daniel, 2003. "Credit Risk Factor Modeling and the Basel II IRB Approach," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2003,02, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Mark Carey, 1998. "Credit Risk in Private Debt Portfolios," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(4), pages 1363-1387, 08.
- Fabio de Andrade & Lyn Thomas, 2004.
"Structural Models In Consumer Credit,"
Risk and Insurance
- Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1999. "Modeling Term Structures of Defaultable Bonds," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 687-720.
- Lando, David & Skodeberg, Torben M., 2002. "Analyzing rating transitions and rating drift with continuous observations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 423-444, March.
- repec:cup:cbooks:9780521331494 is not listed on IDEAS
- Rodriguez, Adolfo & Trucharte, Carlos, 2007. "Loss coverage and stress testing mortgage portfolios: A non-parametric approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 342-367, December.
- Jenkins, Stephen P, 1995. "Easy Estimation Methods for Discrete-Time Duration Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(1), pages 129-38, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:173:y:2010:i:2:p:283-305. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.