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Bootstrap prediction for returns and volatilities in GARCH models

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Leopoldo Catania & Nima Nonejad, 2016. "Density Forecasts and the Leverage Effect: Some Evidence from Observation and Parameter-Driven Volatility Models," Papers 1605.00230, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2016.
  2. Bauwens, Luc & Braione, Manuela & Storti, Giuseppe, 2017. "A dynamic component model for forecasting high-dimensional realized covariance matrices," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 1(C), pages 40-61.
  3. Perera, Indeewara & Silvapulle, Mervyn J., 2021. "Bootstrap based probability forecasting in multiplicative error models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 221(1), pages 1-24.
  4. Hartz, Christoph & Mittnik, Stefan & Paolella, Marc, 2006. "Accurate value-at-risk forecasting based on the normal-GARCH model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 2295-2312, December.
  5. Pavel Krupskii & Harry Joe, 2015. "Tail-weighted measures of dependence," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(3), pages 614-629, March.
  6. M. Jiménez Gamero, 2014. "On the empirical characteristic function process of the residuals in GARCH models and applications," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 23(2), pages 409-432, June.
  7. Miazhynskaia, Tatiana & Fruhwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia & Dorffner, Georg, 2006. "Bayesian testing for non-linearity in volatility modeling," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 2029-2042, December.
  8. Matteo Grigoletto & Francesco Lisi, 2011. "Practical implications of higher moments in risk management," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 20(4), pages 487-506, November.
  9. Corradi, Valentina & Iglesias, Emma M., 2008. "Bootstrap refinements for QML estimators of the GARCH(1,1) parameters," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 500-510, June.
  10. Beutner, Eric & Heinemann, Alexander & Smeekes, Stephan, 2024. "A residual bootstrap for conditional Value-at-Risk," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 238(2).
  11. Roselyn Dimingo & John W. Muteba Mwamba & Lumengo Bonga-Bonga, 2021. "Prediction of Stock Market Direction: Application of Machine Learning Models," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 74(4), pages 499-536.
  12. Eric Beutner & Alexander Heinemann & Stephan Smeekes, 2017. "A Justification of Conditional Confidence Intervals," Papers 1710.00643, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2019.
  13. João Henrique G. Mazzeu & Gloria González-Rivera & Esther Ruiz & Helena Veiga, 2020. "A bootstrap approach for generalized Autocontour testing Implications for VIX forecast densities," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(10), pages 971-990, November.
  14. Hotta, Luiz & Trucíos, Carlos & Ruiz Ortega, Esther, 2015. "Robust bootstrap forecast densities for GARCH models: returns, volatilities and value-at-risk," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws1523, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  15. Giuseppe Cavaliere & Rasmus Søndergaard Pedersen & Anders Rahbek, 2018. "The Fixed Volatility Bootstrap for a Class of Arch(q) Models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(6), pages 920-941, November.
  16. Mahsa Gorji & Rasoul Sajjad, 2017. "Improving Value-at-Risk Estimation from the Normal EGARCH Model," Contemporary Economics, Vizja University, vol. 11(1), March.
  17. Hartz, Christoph & Mittnik, Stefan & Paolella, Marc S., 2006. "Accurate Value-at-Risk forecast with the (good old) normal-GARCH model," CFS Working Paper Series 2006/23, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  18. Bauwens Luc & Storti Giuseppe, 2009. "A Component GARCH Model with Time Varying Weights," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(2), pages 1-33, May.
  19. Giacomo Bormetti & Fulvio Corsi, 2021. "A Lucas Critique Compliant SVAR model with Observation-driven Time-varying Parameters," Papers 2107.05263, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2022.
  20. Wasel Shadat, 2011. "On the Nonparametric Tests of Univariate GARCH Regression Models," Economics Discussion Paper Series 1115, Economics, The University of Manchester.
  21. Christophe Hurlin & Sébastien Laurent & Rogier Quaedvlieg & Stephan Smeekes, 2017. "Risk Measure Inference," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(4), pages 499-512, October.
  22. Beste Hamiye Beyaztas & Ufuk Beyaztas & Soutir Bandyopadhyay & Wei-Min Huang, 2018. "New and Fast Block Bootstrap-Based Prediction Intervals for GARCH(1,1) Process with Application to Exchange Rates," Sankhya A: The Indian Journal of Statistics, Springer;Indian Statistical Institute, vol. 80(1), pages 168-194, February.
  23. Nieto, María Rosa & Carmona-Benítez, Rafael Bernardo, 2018. "ARIMA + GARCH + Bootstrap forecasting method applied to the airline industry," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 1-8.
  24. Fresoli, Diego E. & Ruiz, Esther, 2016. "The uncertainty of conditional returns, volatilities and correlations in DCC models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 170-185.
  25. Alonso, Andres M. & Sipols, Ana E., 2008. "A time series bootstrap procedure for interpolation intervals," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 1792-1805, January.
  26. Peter Malec, 2016. "A Semiparametric Intraday GARCH Model," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1633, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  27. Blasques, Francisco & Koopman, Siem Jan & Łasak, Katarzyna & Lucas, André, 2016. "In-sample confidence bands and out-of-sample forecast bands for time-varying parameters in observation-driven models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 875-887.
  28. Eric Beutner & Julia Schaumburg & Barend Spanjers, 2024. "Bootstrapping GARCH Models Under Dependent Innovations," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 24-008/III, Tinbergen Institute.
  29. Maria Rosa Nieto & Rafael Bernardo Carmona-Benítez, 2021. "An Approach to Measure the Performance and the Efficiency of Future Airport Infrastructure," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(16), pages 1-28, August.
  30. Vaibhavi Aher, 2023. "Einführung und Überblick," Springer Books, in: Vaibhavi Aher (ed.), Statistische und mathematische Methoden in der Wirtschaft, chapter 1, pages 1-71, Springer.
  31. Gorgi, Paolo & Koopman, Siem Jan & Schaumburg, Julia, 2024. "Vector autoregressions with dynamic factor coefficients and conditionally heteroskedastic errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 244(2).
  32. Fresoli, Diego & Ruiz, Esther & Pascual, Lorenzo, 2015. "Bootstrap multi-step forecasts of non-Gaussian VAR models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 834-848.
  33. M. Chudý & S. Karmakar & W. B. Wu, 2020. "Long-term prediction intervals of economic time series," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 191-222, January.
  34. Clements, Michael P. & Kim, Jae H., 2007. "Bootstrap prediction intervals for autoregressive time series," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 3580-3594, April.
  35. Nieto, María Rosa & Ruiz Ortega, Esther, 2008. "Measuring financial risk : comparison of alternative procedures to estimate VaR and ES," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws087326, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  36. Damian Ślusarczyk & Robert Ślepaczuk, 2023. "Optimal Markowitz Portfolio Using Returns Forecasted with Time Series and Machine Learning Models," Working Papers 2023-17, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
  37. Meriem Rjiba & Michail Tsagris & Hedi Mhalla, 2015. "Bootstrap for Value at Risk Prediction," International Journal of Empirical Finance, Research Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 4(6), pages 362-371.
  38. Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza & Lima, Luiz Renato & Linton, Oliver & Smith, Daniel R., 2011. "Evaluating Value-at-Risk Models via Quantile Regression," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(1), pages 150-160.
  39. Spierdijk, Laura, 2016. "Confidence intervals for ARMA–GARCH Value-at-Risk: The case of heavy tails and skewness," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 545-559.
  40. Giordano, Francesco & La Rocca, Michele & Perna, Cira, 2007. "Forecasting nonlinear time series with neural network sieve bootstrap," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 3871-3884, May.
  41. Goulas, Lambros & Skiadopoulos, George, 2012. "Are freight futures markets efficient? Evidence from IMAREX," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 644-659.
  42. Borovkova, Svetlana & Permana, Ferry J., 2009. "Implied volatility in oil markets," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 2022-2039, April.
  43. Ghaemi Asl, Mahdi & Adekoya, Oluwasegun Babatunde & Rashidi, Muhammad Mahdi & Oliyide, Johnson Ayobami & Rajab, Sahel, 2024. "A new approach to forecasting Islamic and conventional oil and gas stock prices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA).
  44. Ufuk Beyaztas & Beste H. Beyaztas, 2019. "On Jackknife-After-Bootstrap Method for Dependent Data," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 53(4), pages 1613-1632, April.
  45. Gonçalves Mazzeu, Joao Henrique & González-Rivera, Gloria & Ruiz Ortega, Esther & Veiga, Helena, 2016. "A Bootstrap Approach for Generalized Autocontour Testing," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 23457, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  46. Nieto, María Rosa & Ruiz Ortega, Esther, 2010. "Bootstrap prediction intervals for VaR and ES in the context of GARCH models," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws102814, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  47. Jack Fosten & Daniel Gutknecht & Marc-Oliver Pohle, 2023. "Testing Quantile Forecast Optimality," Papers 2302.02747, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
  48. Alexander Heinemann & Sean Telg, 2018. "A Residual Bootstrap for Conditional Expected Shortfall," Papers 1811.11557, arXiv.org.
  49. Alfonso Novales & Laura Garcia-Jorcano, 2019. "Backtesting Extreme Value Theory models of expected shortfall," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2019-24, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
  50. Pellegrini, Santiago & Ruiz, Esther & Espasa, Antoni, 2011. "Prediction intervals in conditionally heteroscedastic time series with stochastic components," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 308-319.
  51. Chen Zhong & Yuanyuan Zhang & Lijian Yang, 2025. "Inference and prediction for ARCH time series via innovation distribution function," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 34(1), pages 48-68, March.
  52. Zhenming Zhang & Shishun Zhao & Jianhua Cheng & Jiamin Li, 2025. "Conditional quantile estimation for GARCH model based on mixed-frequency data," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 66(4), pages 1-56, June.
  53. Trucíos, Carlos & Hotta, Luiz K., 2016. "Bootstrap prediction in univariate volatility models with leverage effect," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 91-103.
  54. Lazar, Emese & Zhang, Ning, 2025. "Model Risk of Volatility Models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 1-22.
  55. Jooyoung Jeon & James W. Taylor, 2012. "Using Conditional Kernel Density Estimation for Wind Power Density Forecasting," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 107(497), pages 66-79, March.
  56. Trujillo-Barrera, Andres Trujillo- & Garcia, Philip, 2012. "Density Forecasts of Lean Hog Futures Price," 2012 Conference, April 16-17, 2012, St. Louis, Missouri 285767, NCR-134/ NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
  57. Nieto, Maria Rosa & Ruiz, Esther, 2016. "Frontiers in VaR forecasting and backtesting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 475-501.
  58. Krupskii, Pavel & Joe, Harry, 2015. "Structured factor copula models: Theory, inference and computation," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 53-73.
  59. Bal'azs Csan'ad Cs'aji, 2018. "Score Permutation Based Finite Sample Inference for Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) Models," Papers 1807.08390, arXiv.org.
  60. Dimitris N. Politis & Kejin Wu, 2023. "Multi-Step-Ahead Prediction Intervals for Nonparametric Autoregressions via Bootstrap: Consistency, Debiasing, and Pertinence," Stats, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-29, August.
  61. P. Gorgi & S. J. Koopman & R. Lit, 2023. "Estimation of final standings in football competitions with a premature ending: the case of COVID-19," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 107(1), pages 233-250, March.
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