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Wider die Zahlengläubigkeit: Sind Befragungsergebnisse eine gute Grundlage für wirtschaftspolitische Entscheidungen?

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  • Helga Fehr-Duda
  • Robin Schimmelpfennig

Abstract

Befragungen von Konsumenten, Steuerzahlern und Wählern werden in Wirtschaft und Politik häufig als Entscheidungsgrundlage herangezogen. Die Ergebnisse dieser Befragungen können somit großen Einfluss auf politische Entscheidungen und damit auf den Alltag vieler Menschen haben. Befragungen sind besonders dann wichtig und notwendig, wenn noch keine entsprechenden Verhaltensdaten oder Erfahrungswerte vorliegen. Helga Fehr-Duda und Robin Schimmelpfennig gehen der Frage nach, ob Angaben zur Zahlungsbereitschaft, die in hypothetischen Entscheidungssituationen gemacht werden, glaubwürdig und zuverlässig genug sind, um als Grundlage für unternehmerische und wirtschaftspolitische Entscheidungen zu dienen. Die Autoren zeigen anhand zweier neuer Studien, dass Ergebnisse hypothetischer Befragungen, wie beispielsweise einer Stated preference Befragung, signifikant vom Kontext der Entscheidungssituation abhängen. Es ist daher nicht möglich, allgemeine kontextunabhängige Aussagen zum Ausmaß der möglichen Fehleinschätzung von Zahlungsbereitschaften zu treffen. Die Autoren empfehlen, wann immer möglich Labor- oder Feldexperimente im relevanten Kontext mit realen monetären Anreizen durchzuführen. In jenen Fällen, in denen hypothetische Befragungen die einzige Möglichkeit der Datengewinnung darstellen, ist es unabdingbar, das Befragungsdesign möglichst anreizverträglich, realitätsnah und dem Anwendungskontext angemessen zu gestalten. Auftraggeber sollten auf die Einhaltung dieser Grundsätze bestehen, um möglichst valide Befragungsergebnisse zu erhalten.

Suggested Citation

  • Helga Fehr-Duda & Robin Schimmelpfennig, 2018. "Wider die Zahlengläubigkeit: Sind Befragungsergebnisse eine gute Grundlage für wirtschaftspolitische Entscheidungen?," ECON - Working Papers 297, Department of Economics - University of Zurich, revised Dec 2018.
  • Handle: RePEc:zur:econwp:297
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Verhaltensökonomie; experimentelle Wirtschaftsforschung; Stated preference Befragung; Kontingente Bewertung; Zahlungsbereitschaft;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • A12 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Relation of Economics to Other Disciplines
    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles

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