IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/smwarg/341994.html

Ungebremste Staatsverschuldung? Fiskalregeln bleiben unverzichtbar

Author

Listed:
  • König, Jörg
  • Quitzau, Jörn

Abstract

Die Staatsverschuldung steigt weltweit auf neue Höchststände. Nach Jahren niedriger Zinsen geraten die öffentlichen Haushalte vieler Länder unter Druck. Hinzu kommen neue fiskalische Belastungen durch geopolitische Spannungen, höhere Verteidigungsausgaben und den demografischen Wandel. Gleichzeitig gelingt es vielen Staaten selbst außerhalb akuter Krisensituationen nicht, ihre Haushalte nachhaltig zu konsolidieren und glaubwürdige Strategien zum Schuldenabbau vorzulegen. Kritisch wird Verschuldung vor allem dann, wenn Zweifel an der langfristigen Tragfähigkeit der öffentlichen Finanzen bestehen. Überschuldung entsteht dabei meist schleichend als Folge dauerhaft hoher Defizite. Staatsschulden sind jedoch kein Naturereignis, sondern das Ergebnis politischer Anreizstrukturen. Da Finanzmärkte oder Ratingagenturen Regierungen nur begrenzt zu fiskalischer Disziplin zwingen, dienen Fiskalregeln als institutionelle Schutzmechanismen gegen die politische Neigung, aktuelle Ausgaben über neue Schulden zu finanzieren.

Suggested Citation

  • König, Jörg & Quitzau, Jörn, 2026. "Ungebremste Staatsverschuldung? Fiskalregeln bleiben unverzichtbar," Argumente zur Marktwirtschaft und Politik 186, Stiftung Marktwirtschaft / The Market Economy Foundation, Berlin.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:smwarg:341994
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/341994/1/1977194710.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Olivier Blanchard, 2019. "Public Debt and Low Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(4), pages 1197-1229, April.
    2. Larch Martin & Malzubris Janis & Santacroce Stefano, 2023. "Numerical Compliance with EU Fiscal Rules: Facts and Figures from a New Database," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Paradigm, vol. 58(1), pages 32-42, January.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    4. Alberto Alesina & Guido Tabellini, 1990. "A Positive Theory of Fiscal Deficits and Government Debt," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 57(3), pages 403-414.
    5. Potrafke, Niklas, 2025. "The economic consequences of fiscal rules," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    6. Luc Eyraud & Xavier Debrun & Andrew Hodge & Victor Duarte Lledo & Catherine A Pattillo, 2018. "Second-Generation Fiscal Rules; Balancing Simplicity, Flexibility, and Enforceability," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 18/04, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Heiko T. Burret & Lars P. Feld, 2018. "Vertical effects of fiscal rules: the Swiss experience," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 25(3), pages 673-721, June.
    8. Heinemann, Friedrich & Osterloh, Steffen & Kalb, Alexander, 2014. "Sovereign risk premia: The link between fiscal rules and stability culture," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 110-127.
    9. Emilie Antonia Höslinger & Max Lay, 2026. "Monitoring der Investitionen des Bundes: Werden zusätzliche Schulden auch für zusätzliche Investitionen verwendet?," ifo Schnelldienst Digital, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 7(4), pages 01-12, March.
    10. Harold L. Cole & Timothy J. Kehoe, 2000. "Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 67(1), pages 91-116.
    11. Olivier J Blanchard, 2019. "Public Debt: Fiscal and Welfare Costs in a Time of Low Interest Rates," Policy Briefs PB19-2, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    12. Michael D. Bordo & Mickey D. Levy, 2021. "Do enlarged fiscal deficits cause inflation? The historical record," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(1), pages 59-83, February.
    13. Victor Duarte Lledo & Paolo Dudine & Luc Eyraud & Adrian Peralta-Alva, 2018. "How to Select Fiscal Rules; A Primer," IMF Fiscal Affairs Department 2018/001, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Badinger, Harald & Reuter, Wolf Heinrich, 2017. "The case for fiscal rules," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 334-343.
    15. Asatryan, Zareh & Castellón, César & Stratmann, Thomas, 2018. "Balanced budget rules and fiscal outcomes: Evidence from historical constitutions," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 105-119.
    16. repec:rnp:ecopol:09111 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Feld, Lars P. & Kalb, Alexander & Moessinger, Marc-Daniel & Osterloh, Steffen, 2017. "Sovereign bond market reactions to no-bailout clauses and fiscal rules – The Swiss experience," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 319-343.
    18. Michele Salvi & Christoph A. Schaltegger & Lukas Schmid, 2020. "Fiscal Rules Cause Lower Debt: Evidence from Switzerland’s Federal Debt Containment Rule," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(4), pages 605-642, November.
    19. Blesse, Sebastian & Dörr, Luisa & Dorn, Florian & Lay, Max, 2026. "Do fiscal rules undermine public investments? A review of empirical evidence," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    20. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2019. "Fiscal Rules and Government Financing Costs," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(1), pages 71-90, March.
    21. Wieland, Volker, 2024. "Debt sustainability analysis: Assessing its use in the EU's new fiscal rules," IMFS Working Paper Series 223, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    22. Christian F. Pfeil & Lars P. Feld, 2024. "Does the Swiss Debt Brake Induce Sound Federal Finances? A Synthetic Control Analysis," Public Finance Review, , vol. 52(1), pages 3-41, January.
    23. Torben M. Andersen, 2013. "The Swedish Fiscal Policy Framework and Intermediate Fiscal Policy Targets," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 149(2), pages 231-248, June.
    24. Mr. Luc Eyraud & Mr. Xavier Debrun & Andrew Hodge & Victor Duarte Lledo & Ms. Catherine A Pattillo, 2018. "Second-Generation Fiscal Rules: Balancing Simplicity, Flexibility, and Enforceability," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2018/004, International Monetary Fund.
    25. Till Cordes & Mr. Tidiane Kinda & Ms. Priscilla S Muthoora & Miss Anke Weber, 2015. "Expenditure Rules: Effective Tools for Sound Fiscal Policy?," IMF Working Papers 2015/029, International Monetary Fund.
    26. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-491, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Potrafke, Niklas, 2025. "The economic consequences of fiscal rules," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    2. Philipp Weber & Laura A. Zell & Lars P. Feld & Christoph A. Schaltegger, 2024. "Functionality of Fiscal Rules in a Low Interest Rate Environment – New Empirical Results for Swiss Cantons," CESifo Working Paper Series 11351, CESifo.
    3. Thomas Brändle & Marc Elsener, 2024. "Do fiscal rules matter? A survey of recent evidence," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 160(1), pages 1-38, December.
    4. Brändle, Thomas & Elsener, Marc, 2023. "Do fiscal rules matter? A survey on recent evidence," Working papers 2023/07, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
    5. Herrero-Alcalde, Ana & Martín-Román, Javier & Tránchez-Martín, José Manuel & Moral-Arce, Ignacio, 2024. "Fiscal rules to the test: The impact of the Spanish expenditure rule," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    6. repec:ces:ceswps:_119333 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Schnabel, Isabel & Truger, Achim & Wieland, Volker, 2019. "Den Strukturwandel meistern. Jahresgutachten 2019/20 [Dealing with Structural Change. Annual Report 2019/20]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201920.
    8. Maximilian Langer & Joshua Hassib & Lars P. Feld & Daniel Nientiedt, 2025. "Evaluating the Effects of the German Debt Brake: A Synthetic Control Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 11933, CESifo.
    9. Johannes Blum & Klaus Gründler & Raphael de Britto Schiller & Niklas Potrafke, 2019. "Die Schuldenbremse in der Diskussion – Teilnehmer des Ökonomenpanels mehrheitlich für Beibehaltung," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 72(22), pages 27-33, November.
    10. Jonne Lehtimäki, 2025. "The fiscal and macroeconomic effects of fiscal rules," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 379-441, December.
    11. Clemens Fuest & Klaus Gründler & Niklas Potrafke & Marcel Fratzscher & Alexander Kriwoluzky & Claus Michelsen & Michael Hüther & Peter Bofinger & Lars P. Feld & Wolf Heinrich Reuter, 2019. "Schuldenbremse — Investitionshemmnis oder Vorbild für Europa? [Debt Brake — Investment Barrier or Role Model for Europe?]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 99(5), pages 307-329, May.
    12. Sawadogo, Pegdéwendé Nestor, 2020. "Can fiscal rules improve financial market access for developing countries?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    13. Fatás, Antonio & Ghosh, Atish R. & Panizza, Ugo, 2019. "The Motives to Borrow," CEPR Discussion Papers 13735, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    14. Andrián, Leandro & Hirs-Garzon, Jorge & Urrea, Ivan Leonardo & Valencia, Oscar, 2024. "Fiscal rules and economic cycles: Quality (always) Matters," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    15. Oguzhan Yelkesen & Pelin Varol Iyidogan, 2025. "Do the level of government debt and economic development matter in the impact of fiscal rules on fiscal performance? Evidence from the dynamic panel threshold model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 69(4), pages 1751-1778, October.
    16. Blesse, Sebastian & Dörr, Luisa & Dorn, Florian & Lay, Max, 2026. "Do fiscal rules undermine public investments? A review of empirical evidence," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    17. Heinemann, Friedrich & Janeba, Eckhard & Todtenhaupt, Maximilian, 2022. "Incumbency and expectations of fiscal rule compliance: Evidence from surveys of German policy makers," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    18. Egbétoké, Amétépé & Ureche-Rangau, Loredana, 2026. "Vulnerability to climate change and funding squeeze in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    19. Afonso, António & Huart, Florence & Tovar Jalles, João & Stanek, Piotr, 2022. "Twin deficits revisited: A role for fiscal institutions?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    20. Ech-charfi, Nour-eddine, 2024. "Fiscal rules, capital controls, and cross-border financial integration," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    21. Combes, Jean-Louis & Debrun, Xavier & Minea, Alexandru & Sawadogo, Pegdéwendé Nestor & Vinturis, Cezara, 2025. "On the side effects of fiscal policy: Fiscal rules and income inequality," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA).

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:smwarg:341994. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/stmwide.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.