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Numerical Compliance with EU Fiscal Rules: Facts and Figures from a New Database

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Listed:
  • Larch Martin

    (Secretariat of the European Fiscal Board, Brussels, Belgium.)

  • Malzubris Janis

    (Secretariat of the European Fiscal Board, Brussels, Belgium.)

  • Santacroce Stefano

    (Secretariat of the European Fiscal Board, Brussels, Belgium.)

Abstract

EU fiscal rules are meant to keep public finances on a sustainable path. This paper presents a new database that tracks numerical compliance with the four main rules of the Stability and Growth Pact starting in 1998. Our assessment of numerical compliance abstracts from the many exceptions and elements of discretion allowed by the letter and the spirit of EU law. It focuses on the main course of action implied by the rules. Overall, our database points to a very mixed compliance record. On average – across countries, years and rules – budgetary policies of the EU member states are compliant in just over half of the cases with stark and persistent differences across countries. We also detect a distinct cyclical pattern of compliance, which sends false signals of safety in good times.

Suggested Citation

  • Larch Martin & Malzubris Janis & Santacroce Stefano, 2023. "Numerical Compliance with EU Fiscal Rules: Facts and Figures from a New Database," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Sciendo, vol. 58(1), pages 32-42, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:intere:v:58:y:2023:i:1:p:32-42:n:3
    DOI: 10.2478/ie-2023-0008
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Emmanuel Mamatzakis, 2024. "Dynamic panel analysis of the EU's fiscal reaction function with threshold effects," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 77(3), pages 520-545, August.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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