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Forecasting the Stability and Growth Pact compliance using Machine Learning

Author

Listed:
  • Kea Baret

    (University of Strasbourg)

  • Amelie Barbier-Gauchard

    (University of Strasbourg)

  • Theophilos Papadimitriou

    (Democritus University of Thrace)

Abstract

Since the reinforcement of the Stability and Growth Pact (1996), the European Commission closely monitors public finance in the EU members. A failure to comply with the 3% limit rule on the public deficit by a country triggers an audit. In this paper, we present a Machine Learning based forecasting model for the compliance with the 3% limit rule. To do so, we use data spanning the period from 2006 to 2018 (a turbulent period including the Global Financial Crisis and the Sovereign Debt Crisis) for the 28 EU member states. A set of eight features are identified as predictors from 138 variables through a feature selection procedure. The forecasting is performed using the Support Vector Machines (SVM). The proposed model reached 91.7% forecasting accuracy and outperformed the Logit model that was used as benchmark.

Suggested Citation

  • Kea Baret & Amelie Barbier-Gauchard & Theophilos Papadimitriou, 2022. "Forecasting the Stability and Growth Pact compliance using Machine Learning," Working Papers 2022.11, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    • Handle: RePEc:inf:wpaper:2022.11
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    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Carlos Fonseca Marinheiro, 2021. "The Expenditure Benchmark: Complex and Unsuitable for Independent Fiscal Institutions," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 63(3), pages 411-431, September.
    3. Kea BARET, 2021. "Fiscal rules’ compliance and Social Welfare," Working Papers of BETA 2021-50, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    4. Kea BARET, 2021. "Fiscal rules’ compliance and Social Welfare," Working Papers of BETA 2021-38, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.

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    JEL classification:

    • F - International Economics

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